Are Big Pharmas Reaping Immoral Profits From Covid Vaccines?

New figures from the Peoples Vaccine Alliance reveal that the companies behind two of the most successful COVID-19 vaccines —Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna are making combined profits of $65,000 every minute or $34 billion in 2021. The monopolies have produced five new billionaires with a combined wealth of $35.1 billion.

Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com

These companies have sold the majority of doses to rich countries, leaving low-income countries out in the cold. Pfizer and BioNTech have delivered less than one percent of their total vaccine supplies to low-income countries, while Moderna has delivered just 0.2 percent. Meanwhile 98 percent of people in low income countries have not been fully vaccinated.

Despite receiving public funding of over $8 billion, the three corporations have refused calls to urgently transfer vaccine technology and know-how with capable producers in low- and middle-income countries via the World Health Organisation (WHO). In Moderna’s case, this is despite explicit pressure from the White House and requests from the WHO that the company collaborate in and help accelerate its plan to replicate the Moderna vaccine for wider production at its mRNA hub in South Africa.

In the first half of 2021, Moderna paid a 7% US tax rate and Pfizer paid a 15% tax rate, well below the US statutory rate of 21%. The low tax rates paid by these US corporations point to a broken and dysfunctional tax system that allows corporations earning billions of dollars to pay a significantly lower tax rate than working families in the US.  BioNTech, a German startup that produced the recipe for the Pfizer vaccine, paid a significantly higher tax rate of 31% tax rate in Germany while reaping a 77% profit margin.  

For Pfizer, the COVID vaccine accounts for more than a third of its overall revenue base. Pfizer has sold more than $11 billion in vaccines in the first half of this year.  Pfizer is now projecting $33.5 billion in total vaccine sales for 2021, making the vaccine one of the top selling pharma products in 2021 and potentially in the history of the pharmaceutical industry. 

Anna Marriott, Oxfam’s Health Policy Manager said on Oxfam’s website: “Contrary to what Pfizer’s CEO says, the real nonsense is claiming the experience and expertise to develop and manufacture life-saving medicines and vaccines does not exist in developing countries. This is just a false excuse that pharmaceutical companies are hiding behind to protect their astronomical profits.”

“It is also a complete failure of government to allow these companies to maintain monopoly control and artificially constrain supply in the midst of a pandemic while so many people in the world are yet to be vaccinated.”

The People’s Vaccine Alliance, which has 80 members including the African Alliance, Global Justice Now, Oxfam, and UNAIDS, is calling for the pharmaceutical corporations to immediately suspend intellectual property rights for COVID-19 vaccines, tests, treatments, and other medical tools by agreeing to the proposed waiver of the TRIPS Agreement at the World Trade Organisation.

They are also calling on governments, including the United States, to use all their legal and policy tools to demand that pharmaceutical companies share COVID-19 data, know-how, and technology with the WHO’s COVID-19 Technology Access Pool and South Africa mRNA Technology Transfer Hub.

More than 100 nations, led by South Africa and India —with the support of the US— have been calling for the TRIPS waiver, which also has the support of over 100 past and present world leaders and Nobel laureates.

Despite this, other rich nations, including the UK and Germany, are still blocking the proposal, putting the interest of pharmaceutical companies over what’s best for the world. This issue is set to dominate the World Trade Organisation Ministerial Summit to be held in Geneva from 30 November to 3 December.

References:

Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna making $1,000 profit every second while world’s poorest countries remain largely unvaccinated, Oxfam, 16 Nov 2021 (https://reliefweb.int)

Pharmaceutical companies reaping immoral profits from Covid vaccines yet paying low tax rates (https://actionaid.org)

Are “Sin” Taxes a Problem?

The political party, PAS, has been urging the Government to segregate revenue proceeds from gambling and alcohol from the Consolidated Fund. All revenue for the Government goes into the Consolidated Fund. And from this, the Government budgets its operating and development expenditure. Any shortfall is met by borrowings or sale (privatisation) of government assets.

Shown below is the Federal Government’s Revenue and Expenditure:

Federal Government debt (shown below) plugs the deficit and that has been growing with Covid. However, the substantial portion (96.5%) is in ringgit. That’s a saving grace!

Only 16.5% of Malaysia’s 15 million workforce pay income tax. Of this, a large portion of the Bumiputera community pay zakat and as such are exempted from income tax. This is unlike Germany where Christians pay an additional 9% religious’ tax.

So, what’s this about “sin” tax? 

We don’t have a breakdown of the sin tax. But over the years, the “sin tax” collected from both the breweries and the lottery operators run into billions of ringgits. This does not include the excise duties imposed on imported beer and hard liquor, which too would run into billions. Deputy Finance Minister II Yamani Hafez Musa told Parliament that the excise tax revenue from hard liquor is about RM1.68 billion on average every year. But that does not include the taxes paid by breweries. And with 20 percent tax paid by 4D punters, that would be several billions more. 

Malaysia is not an Islamic state. It is secular as defined by the Federal Constitution with Islam as its main religion. Many want to change that with questionable motives. Why can’t we follow Indonesia instead of Afghanistan? That will take some political courage in the present landscape. The alternative is for segregation in all its forms – because we cannot have the same blood bank, currency or community. Is that “Keluarga Malaysia”? Why can’t we celebrate diversity and “live and let live”.

References:

2022 Budget Snapshots, KPMG, 29 Oct 2021

Comment: Should sin tax be excluded from consolidated accounts? R. Nadeswaran, Malaysiakini.com, 24 Nov 2021

“Cleanse” public coffers of revenue from “sinful” proceeds, PAS Youth tells PM, G Vinod, Focus Malaysia

10-Point Checklist for Autocracy!

Scholars say countries across the globe are experiencing a rise in autocratic rule, with declines in democratic ideals and practice. Autocratic rule – also known as authoritarianism – is when one leader or political party exercises complete power to govern a country and its people.

2008 was when democracy peaked (according to Freedom House). That’s when the world had the highest percentage ever of fully “free countries,” at 46.1%. That declined to 44.1% in 2018, though full or partial democracy is still the most common form of governance.

Democratic declines are most notable in regions with the world’s largest concentration of democracies. That includes Europe, North America and Latin America. The United States in 2018 was rated a “flawed democracy,” dropping from 21st to 25th place among 167 countries and territories.

Autocrats often came to or retained power through military coups and violent crackdowns. Now the shift from democracy to autocracy is slower and less obvious, through the democratic process. While control over security forces remains essential in the autocratic playbook, overt strong-arm tactics aren’t.

Some (as listed by Shelley Inglis) of the newest tactics used by would-be authoritarians include:

1. Extend executive power

The mainstay of today’s authoritarianism is strengthening power while simultaneously weakening government institutions, such as parliaments and judiciaries, that provide checks and balances.

The key is to use legal means that ultimately give democratic legitimacy to the power grab. Extreme forms of this include abolishing presidential term limits, which was done in China; and regressive constitutional reforms to expand presidential power, like in Turkey.

2. Repress dissent 

Restrictions on funding and other bureaucratic limitations silence the ability of the people to hold accountable those in power. More than 50 countries have passed laws that stifle citizen groups. Democracies have also jumped on this bandwagon. Limitations on permits for public protest, detention of protesters and excessive use of force to break up demonstrations are frequently used tools.

3. Capture elite support 

Economic growth and prosperity are critical to retaining elite or oligarchical support for autocratic leaders. Whether through state-owned businesses, media conglomerates or more sophisticated connections between governments and free-market corporations, money and politics, translated into government favours for the rich, can be a toxic mix for democracy.

Ironically, popular distaste with elite corruption is so high that modern autocratic populists, such as President Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, have risen to power on anti-corruption promises.

Most would-be autocratic leaders today exploit existing tensions within complex societies in order to solidify their support. In many places, fears of migrants and refugees have fuelled resurgent nationalism, driving policies like U.K.’s Brexit. In India, religiously based nationalism has maintained the power of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Blaming external forces for a country’s problems, such as Hungarian leader Viktor Orban’s demonization of George Soros, a Hungarian-born philanthropist who supports democracy-building, is also common.

5. Control information at home; misinform abroad

While propaganda and state-owned media is not new, control of modern technology and information has become a key battleground. China has developed sophisticated technologies to censor and prevent the circulation of unwanted information and to track individuals in society.

Russia is at the vanguard of state media control at home while generating misinformation abroad. Many smaller countries have used internet blackouts to block organizing and communicating by social movements.

6. Cripple the opposition

Damaging the opposition parties, while not completely destroying them, is now essential. This serves the purpose of retaining a target for pseudo-political competition while also stymieing the potential for new, more democratic forces to gain traction. Singapore is a great example. 

7. Covert election manipulation

Vote-rigging and vote-buying is a path to power. But would-be autocrats have found cleverer ways to tilt the playing field in their favour. These new tactics include hampering media access, gerrymandering, changing election and voter eligibility rules and placing allies on electoral commissions. The Republican party, in various states, has done so to ensure victory in future elections.

8. Play the emergency card

Some autocratic leaders continue to use traditional strong-arm tactics, like declaring states of emergency, to enable further repression. Since 2001, using the threat of terrorism or organized crime has played well for furthering autocratic rule. President Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war.

 Since an attempted coup in 2016 up until 2018, for example, Turkey was under a state of emergency which enabled President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to jail and persecute academics, government officials, media and human rights advocates.

9. Extend your model and influence

Today’s autocratic rulers are not keeping to themselves. Using the international stage and their growing economic prowess, countries like China are spreading their influence through funding initiatives such as the Belt and Road to build infrastructure across Asia to Europe. They’re hiring professional consultants to advise and lobby foreign capitals for policies that reinforce their power.

10. Learn and share

Characterized as “autocratic learning” by scholars, national authorities from Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Belarus, Syria and other places are developing and exchanging models for containing threats of social movements and the so-called “colour revolutions.” This is also the playbook of the Republican party in the U.S. Former President Donald Trump and his cohort are good at it – in spreading the “Big Lie”.

Some experts claim the world is at a “tipping point” where decreasing faith in democracy will drive the dominance of autocracy globally. The social movements of today inspire some hope that civil society – a key ingredient for democracy – though under pressure, is fighting the trend. Nonetheless, strengthening democracy across the globe will prove impossible if even the most established democracies today fall prey to the tactics of would-be autocrats.

Source: http://www.msrblog.com

Reference:

So, you want to be an autocrat? Here’s the 10-point checklist, Shelley Inglis, Nov 20, 2019 (https://theconversation.com)

Is The “Great Resignation” in the U.S. for Real?

A record-breaking 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in August 2021, according to a report released by Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). That’s the highest level since 2000, and sixth consecutive month of high resignation rates.

Employees between 30 and 45 years old have had the greatest increase in resignation rates, with an average increase of more than 20% between 2020 and 2021. While turnover is typically highest among younger employees, resignations actually decreased for workers in the 20 to 25 age range (likely due to a combination of their greater financial uncertainty and reduced demand for entry-level workers). Interestingly, resignation rates also fell for those in the 60 to 70 age group, while employees in the 25 to 30 and 45+ age groups experienced slightly higher resignation rates than in 2020 (but not as significant an increase as that of the 30-45 group).

Source: https://nypost.com

There’s no single factor driving workforce behavior, economists add. Wages aren’t keeping up with surging prices. Low-wage jobs often lack opportunities for career growth. A crumbling childcare industry is driving up day care costs, making work unaffordable. Those who have remained in jobs face higher responsibility and gruelling work conditions punctuated by fears of the next variant of COVID-19. And then there’s just plain old vanilla pandemic fatigue.

Data from big employers across U.S. suggest that vaccine mandates aren’t playing much of a role. Roughly 99% of Michigan’s Henry Ford Health System’s 33,000 employees complied with its vaccine mandate. In Washington State, University of Washington hospitals reported 97% of staff were vaccinated by the end of September. More than 90% of Tyson Foods’ 120,000-person workforce were vaccinated in the same time frame.

Anthony Klotz, an associate professor of management at Texas A&M who coined the term the “Great Resignation” to describe this budding labour market says the trends may have a silver lining. They may force companies not only to raise wages and increase benefits, but also to offer more flexibility to attract and retain an in-person workforce.

That’s especially the case for people working in the food service and retail industries. In August, some 892,000 workers quit accommodation and food services jobs and 721,000 quit retail positions, according to BLS data. The healthcare sector also took a hit: 534,000 U.S. workers resigned or quit from health care and social assistance positions.

When a current employer is unable or unwilling to make a job more attractive, numbers on job openings suggest that burned out workers in many sectors can easily find new ones. But there are three steps that can help any employer more effectively leverage data to improve employee retention:

1. Quantify the problem.

It is critical to quantify both the scope of the problem and its impact. 

Next, determine the impact of resignations on key business metrics. When employees leave an organization, remaining teams often find themselves without key skill-sets or resources, negatively impacting quality of work and time-to-completion to bottom-line revenue. It’s important to track how increased turnover correlates with changes in other relevant metrics in order to get a full picture of the costs of resignations.

2. Identify the root causes.

Then it’s time to conduct a detailed data analysis to determine what’s really causing your staff to leave. Ask which factors could be driving higher resignation rates? Exploring metrics such as compensation, time between promotions, size of pay increases, tenure, performance, and training opportunities can help to identify trends and blind spots. 

3. Develop tailored retention programs

Create highly customized programs aimed at correcting the specific issues that the workplace struggles with most. For example, if you find that time between promotions correlates strongly with high resignation rates, it may be time to rethink advancement policies

It is now an employees’ market in the U.S. And it may also happen here in Malaysia, unless employers start to tailor needs of employees, be flexible on work hours, and set compensation that meets new post-pandemic standards, we may have trouble filling openings. But that could be a scene of the future in Malaysia!

References:

Why literally millions of Americans are quitting their jobs, Abby Vesoulis, October 13, 2021 (https://time.com)

Who is driving the great resignation? Ian Cook, September 15, 2021 (https://hbr.org)

Is Malaysia Adopting The Zimbabwe Economic Model?

There were two writers (G.Vinod, Focus Malaysia, 18 Nov 2021 and Murray Hunter, Asia Sentinel, 16 Nov 2021) who suggested that Malaysia could be adopting the Zimbabwe economic model.

The Government’s move to force local forwarding companies to divest 51% equity interest to Bumiputeras is the background to it. Then you have the PM suggesting malls and certain SME sectors to have Bumiputera interests. We also have the Minister of Finance introducing the one-off Cukai Makmur (Prosperity Tax) of 33%. Are we sliding down the Zimbabwe slope?

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

Mugabe (the then PM of Zimbabwe) inherited a strong economy in 1980. Good infrastructure, solid currency, vibrant manufacturing and a productive agricultural sector were its ingredients. But he managed turn that into a disaster by the turn of the millennium. He sanctioned white-owned farms for redistribution to blacks (who had no land). That ensured a plunge in agricultural output. Zimbabwe from being an exporter of food became an importer.

Zimbabwe’s industrial sector dropped production to 50% of installed capacity. Trade balance turned negative with plunging exports. Inflation or hyperinflation (to be exact) soared to 79.6 billion per month in 2008. Only by “dollarising” did hyperinflation end in 2009. In that same year, Mugabe compelled all foreigners and whites to sell 51% of their equity interest in every existing business (partnership, private company, sole proprietorship) with an asset value of USD0.5 million (or more) to blacks. Failure to do so would mean a fine or imprisonment of up to 5 years. Did this reform work? No! Mugabe is remembered as the man who single-handedly made Zimbabwe a “beggar” country. So, is the PM keen to follow in his footsteps?

Today Bumiputera companies take up 80% of yearly Government contract costs across all Government agencies. Then there is Teraju, Bumiputera Prosperity Council, Bumiputera Development Action 2030, and many other initiatives, policies and agendas. Since 1971, more than RM1 trillion has been poured into Bumiputera enhancement or empowerment programmes. To what avail? Only 17.2% corporate equity interest? That’s understated because it is on par; those allocated sold their shares; and GLIC and GLC interests are not included. A more rational picture would suggest it is above 60%. So, where do we stop?

Meanwhile, we have been losing quality investments in shipping, manufacturing, services, high-tech sectors and others . Google, Amazon, Vodafone, Akzo Nobel and many more are in neighbouring economies. Why? Poor infrastructure, flip-flop policies, restrictions on ownership, brain drain of best talents and the widespread corruption in every aspect of the economy. Why did South Vietnam fall in 1975? Corruption. Why did Afghanistan fall in 2021? Corruption.

The present PM is remembered for his creation of MARA Digital Mall to rival the Low Yat Mall. The MARA Digital Mall Kuantan closed in 2018, while the one in Johor ceased operations in 2019. The one in KL is working but at a slow pace – there are plans to convert that into a conventional shopping space instead. MARA Corp. Chairman admitted that the creation of the digital mall was politically motivated move and not a business driven one.

So, what is our goal? To be another Zimbabwe? 

Affirmative action should be in education, employment and entrepreneurship. Employers receive incentives for supporting initiatives (i.e. Government providing tax breaks and the like). Otherwise, we become a very unattractive economy for both local and foreign investors. And the “cake” will not grow and there is nothing to share.

References:

Report: Malaysia adopting disastrous Zimbabwe economic model! G Vinod, Focus Malaysia

The Zimbabwization of Malaysia, Murray Hunter, Asia Sentinel, Nov 17, 2020

PM announces plans for Bumi quotas in malls and ‘strategic locations’, says in line with “Keluarga Malaysa”, Ashman Adam, Malay Mail, 18 Nov 2021

What happened to Low Yat’s contender, MARA Digital Mall? Hakim Hassan, The Rakyat Post, January 24, 2020

Are Supplements a Waste of Time and Money?

 The majority of adults in the United States are taking a dietary supplement on a regular basis. Americans now spend more than $30 billion per year on dietary supplements. Here are five reasons why most dietary supplements are a waste of your time and money.

1) Don’t Need Supplements?

Dietary supplements don’t replace wise meal and snack patterns. As their name implies, supplements are intended to supplement—not replace—healthy and wholesome food choices.

There certainly are circumstances when a dietary supplement is indicated, but these usually have to do with treating a diagnosed nutrient deficiency. Supplement may be useful for the following situations:

• Iron supplements if diagnosed with iron deficiency

• Prenatal vitamins with folic acid before and during pregnancy

• Vitamin B12 for vegans and older adults with low B12 levels

• Calcium and vitamin D for those at risk for or who have osteoporosis

• Fluoride for older infants living in areas where municipal water supply isn’t fluoridated

• Vitamin K in a single prophylactic dose for newborn infants to prevent bleeding

• Omega-3 fatty acids for people at risk for heart disease who don’t consume fish

2) Some Supplements Can Cause Toxicity

In an environment where “more” is often perceived as being “better,” consumers tend to think that if a supplement provides 100% of their needs, then something that provides 1000% must be 10 times better. 

There is no data that supports megadosing of supplements for health outcomes. When taken in high doses, some fat-soluble vitamin supplements like vitamin A can cause harm by building up to toxic levels in the body. And even water-soluble vitamins (which is excreted through urine if you consume too much) can still have negative effects on your body. Water-soluble nutrient vitamin C can cause diarrhoea and other gastrointestinal discomfort if consumed at high levels.

Supplements can also harm people who have certain underlying health conditions. For example, someone taking the blood thinner Coumadin could experience serious harm from high levels of vitamin K, which promotes blood clotting.

3) Supplements Don’t Prevent Disease

Although supplements are often confused with drugs, supplements are not drugs. But supplement manufacturers take great liberty in their marketing of these products, often implying the relationship between their supplements and a particular performance outcome or health benefit.

While there are certain health claims that some supplements can carry, these claims are few and far between, and apply to just a small fraction of the actual supplements sold every year. 

4) Active Ingredients and Amounts are Often Unknown

If you are a supplement user, take a look at the supplements that you take. Ask yourself, “Why am I taking this supplement? Is there evidence-based data to support this supplement’s use? Is there an established body of peer-reviewed published literature that proves this supplement works?” And lastly, “Do I even know if what it says is in the bottle is actually in the supplement bottle?”

Supplement manufacturers do not have to disclose the amounts of ingredients, or sometimes even the exact ingredients in their products. A well-known supplement industry practice is to hide behind the term “proprietary blend.” Citing protection of secret ingredients and formulas, manufacturers are not required to divulge how much, or even what is in the bottles they are selling.

5) Natural Means Nothing

In the supplement world, there is no legally defensible definition for the term “natural.” In fact, when it comes to the natural products industry, the word “natural” more often than not means nothing. The perception of a natural supplement product is that it is not artificially fabricated. This is highly ironic given that the vast majority of dietary supplements are synthetically created in a laboratory environment and likely do not contain any natural, plant-based or non-synthetic ingredients.

Other marketing catchphrases frequently used to sell supplements include “prescription strength,” “high potency” and “medical grade.” As with the word “natural,” these terms mean nothing - just more profits for supplement manufacturers.

It is easy to become overwhelmed by the vast array of dietary and sports supplements available in the marketplace. Exceptional athletic performance and optimal health come from hard work and a body fuelled by good food, not expensive and worthless lotions, potions and pills. Admittedly, I am guilty of taking supplements and contributing to the Big Pharmas’ revenues.

Source: https://www.news-medical.net

References:

Reasons why most supplements are a waste of time and money, Katie, Ferraro, August 4, 2017 (https://www.acefitness.org)

16 vitamins that are a waste of money, says experts, Heather Newgen,  October 22, 2021 (https://www.eatthis.com)

5-Year Plans: Are They Crony Enrichment Programmes?

Dennis Ignatius believes the 5-year spending plans are crony enrichment programmes. Since 1971 there has been over twelve 5-year plans, 50 national budgets and 9 PMs. Over 94 Bumiputera empowerment agencies were created and an estimated RM1 trillion poured into the Bumiputera agenda with mediocre results!

The present PM says Bumiputera corporate equity is just 17.2% as opposed to a target of 30%. In 1991, it was over 20%. In 2009, this was 19.4% and in 2011 it was 23.4%. So is this economic cycle or for some other reason?

Source: https://opengovasia.com

First, the shares (corporate equity) are measured on “par” not on mark-to-market. So its value is always “suppressed”. Second, the allocated shares are invariably sold by the cronies who receive it. Then they queue for more shares or new allocations. And it is generally the same people not the B40. Third, the value of GLCs and GLICs are not included because they are so-called national entities. For all intents and purposes, they are Bumiputera-run and report to MoF or Economic Affairs Ministry. Board and Management are all Bumiputera. So, by definition (of Companies Act) they should be classified as Bumiputera interests. If you do that then overall corporate equity of Bumiputeras will exceed 60% (that’s my estimate, apologise for any error).

If you follow the UMNO way, the NEP targets will never be met. That’s the political game. But surely it is also a double-edged sword – the failure of near 50 years (since NEP) of UMNO rule! The ordinary folks are coming to realise this but has UMNO caught on? Or, is the DAP responsible for this?

Can someone explain how a nation with a population of 5.8 million has a GDP of USD379 billion (or USD618 billion on PPP terms) while we have a population of 32 million and GDP of only USD387 billion (or USD979 billion in PPP terms)? Malaysia is blessed with all the resources – petroleum, land, oil-palm, rubber etc. – and the tiny island of Singapore lives of services, manufacturing and trade. By Singapore’s standards, our GDP should be 5x higher! Wastage, corruption, leakages and endemic apathy leaves us as “mediocre” Malaysia.

The latest 5-year plan has RM400 billion to be spent! Of this, 30% or RM120 billion will be lost through wastage and corruption. That’s the estimate of Transparency International (not mine).

Whatever happened to RM300 million paid for six helicopters not delivered? And then we have six “phantom” warships worth RM6 billion (still not delivered)? Over RM1billion of this sum cannot be traced. That’s according to Putrajaya’s special investigation committee on procurement, governance and finance. When can we stop this?

Unless there is serious effort on every level to curb excesses, five- year plans will remain an academic exercise for the benefit of cronies.  

References:

Malaysia’s crony enrichment plan, Dennis Ignatius (www.asiasentinel.com)

Hishammuddin’s RM6 billion phantom warships (www.sarawakreport.org)

Report: RM300m paid for US-made helicopters that were never delivered, 20 May 2019 (www.theedgemarkets.com)

UK Lorry Driver Shortage: Is This a Wider European Problem?

The UK has been grappling with a fuel-supply crisis, with many petrol stations running out, and those with supplies seeing huge lines of traffic as people desperately try to fill up. Empty supermarket shelves have also been highlighted, as a result of a severe shortage of lorry drivers. One of the culprits, according to some analysts, is Brexit.Where once the UK relied on drivers coming from Eastern Europe, after leaving the bloc many of them have left in search of better pay and working conditions on the continent.

After weeks of mounting pressure over shortages, the UK government announced it will issue 5,000 emergency visas to foreign truck drivers to help alleviate the problem. But these are three-month visas, which critics say won’t entice European truck drivers.

But it’s not just the UK that’s grappling with the shortage of drivers. As demand for stock is driven up following the coronavirus pandemic, so too is demand for drivers.

The haulage industry says the UK is short some 100,000 drivers -- an extreme example which has been exacerbated by Brexit -- but Germany and Poland are also grappling with a serious shortfall. According to Transport Intelligence, the driver shortfall across Europe now surpasses 400,000. According to many who work -- or worked -- in the industry, bad working conditions, long distances, and long stretches of time away from home are some of the reasons why people have left in droves.

The problems in industry have been foreseen for at least a decade. Truck driver unions say the onus is now on EU member states to ensure that labour laws are being upheld and conditions are improved if the situation is ever to be resolved.

Transport companies cite the sector's poor image, regulatory hurdles and high training costs as a barrier to attracting new recruits — particularly among women, migrants and young people who they say represent an untapped resource.

Ultimately, it comes down to making the job more attractive to potential drivers, according to Jones from Unite. That means more pay, better work schedules and safe parking spaces, he said.

Source: https://www.just-food.com

References:

UK lorry driver shortage, a stark example of a wider European problem, Luke Hurst and Shona Murray, 29 September 2021 (https://www.euronews.com) 

Europe’s looming truck driver gap undermines UK appeals, Hanne Cokelaere, September 27, 2021 (https://www.politico.eu) 

Will Malaysia Airlines Survive?

Malaysia Airlines will have to shut down if its lessors decide not to back its latest restructuring plan, the airline’s group chief executive, Izham Ismail was quoted as saying in early October, 2021. A group of leasing companies has rejected the airline’s restructuring plan, bringing the state carrier closer to a showdown over its future, Reuters reported recently.

                                                                                                        Source: https://www.malaymail.com

Izham said the plan was to restructure the airline’s balance sheet over five years, achieving break-even in 2023 on the assumption that demand in the domestic and Southeast Asian markets returns to 2019 levels by the second and third quarters of 2022. The plan will also require a fresh cash injection from its major shareholder, the state fund Khazanah Nasional, to help the airline over the next 18 months. So far RM28 billion has been pumped in! Lessors claiming to represent 70% of the airplanes and engines leased to the group have called the plan “inappropriate and fatally flawed”. They have pledged to challenge it, according to people familiar with the matter.

Malaysia Aviation Group (MAG), the airline’s parent company, said recently it was “pleased” with the level of support it had received from its lessors and was continuing discussions with them. The airline group is seeking to implement the restructuring plan through a UK court process, according to sources.

In mid-October, the legal firm Freshfields helped state-owned Malaysia Airlines to reduce its obligations on leases for aircraft as part of its restructuring. Freshfields turned to the English courts and a scheme of arrangement — a tool that is often used in financial restructuring but never before with aircraft leases. The leaseholders agreed to a class arrangement as a replacement for the previous ad hoc leases, which made the settlement for Malaysia Airlines more efficient.

Izham had earlier said the lessors will need to make a decision soon, so that the airline can decide whether to proceed with its restructuring plan or “execute Plan B”. He said Plan B could involve shifting Malaysia Airlines’ air operator’s certificate (AOC) to a new airline under a different name, or using the certificates of sister airlines Firefly and MASwings.

Why is Plan B workable? It could easily end up in the same mess. The skill sets of the airline is depleted. It needs new people, new thinking, new policies and no politics! Unless the political leadership has courage, this Plan A or B will falter and more good money will be thrown at recovery. Can’t we do this with the best people for the job?

References:

Malaysia Airlines’ survival in doubt, say CEO, Reuters, 10 Oct 2020 (https://www.bangkokpost.com)

How airlines survived to fly another day, Philip Georgiadis, Financial Times, 15 October 2021(https://www.ft.com)

Covid Vaccines: Widening Inequity!

 What is vaccine equity?  It means that all people, wherever they are in the world, should have equal access to a vaccine which offers protection against the COVID-19 infection. World Health Organisation (WHO) has set a global target of 70 per cent of the population of all countries to be vaccinated by mid-2022, but to reach this goal a more equitable access to vaccines will be needed. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) said vaccine equity was “not rocket science, nor charity. It is smart public health and in everyone’s best interest.”

Why is it so important?

 

Apart from the ethical argument that no country or citizen is more deserving of another, no matter how rich or poor, an infectious disease like COVID-19 will remain a threat globally, as long as it exists anywhere in the world.

Inequitable vaccine distribution is not only leaving millions or billions of people vulnerable to the deadly virus, it is also allowing even more deadly variants to emerge and spread across the globe. An unequal distribution of vaccines will deepen inequality and exaggerate the gap between rich and poor and will reverse decades of hard-won progress on human development.

According to the UN, vaccine inequity will have a lasting impact on socio-economic recovery in low and lower-middle income countries and set back progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). According to the UNDP, eight out of ten people pushed into poverty directly by the pandemic are projected to live in the world’s poorest countries in 2030.

Estimates also suggest that the economic impacts of COVID-19 may last until 2024 in low-income countries, while high-income countries could reach pre-COVID-19 per capita GDP growth rates by the end of this year.

Is it working?

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 (15 September, 2021)

Not according to Dr Tedros, who said in April this year that “vaccine equity is the challenge of our time…and we are failing”. Research suggests that enough vaccines will be produced in 2021 to cover 70 per cent of the global population of 7.8 billion. However, most vaccines are being reserved for wealthy countries. The decision by some nations to give already inoculated citizens a booster vaccine, rather than prioritizing doses for unvaccinated people in poorer countries has been highlighted as one example of this trend (vaccine nationalism).

Still, the good news, according to WHO data, is that as of September 15, more than 5.5 billion doses have been administered worldwide, although given that most of the available vaccines require two shots, the number of people who are protected is much lower.

Which countries are getting the vaccines right now?

The rich countries are getting the majority of vaccines, with many poorer countries struggling to vaccinate even a small number of citizens. According to the Global Dashboard for Vaccine Equity (established by UNDP, WHO and Oxford University) as of September 15, just 3.07 per cent of people in low-income countries have been vaccinated with at least one dose, compared to 60.18 per cent in high-income countries.

The vaccination rate in the UK of people who have received at least one vaccine dose is around 70.92 per cent while the US is currently at 65.2 per cent. Other high-income and middle-income countries are not doing so well; New Zealand has vaccinated just 31.97 per cent of its relatively small population of around five million, although Brazil, is now at 63.31 per cent.

However, the stats in some of the poorest countries in the world make grim reading. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo just 0.09 per cent of the population have received one dose; in Papua New Guinea and Venezuela, the rate is 1.15 per cent and 20.45 per cent respectively.

What’s the cost of a vaccine?

Data from UNICEF show that the average cost of a COVID-19 vaccine is $2 to $37 (there are 24 vaccines which have been approved by at least one national regulatory authority) and the estimated distribution cost per person is $3.70. This represents a significant financial burden for low-income countries, where, according to UNDP, the average annual per capita health expenditure amounts to $41.

The vaccine equity dashboard shows that, without immediate global financial support, low-income countries would have to increase their healthcare spending by between 30 and 60 per cent to meet the target of vaccinating 70 per cent of their citizens.

What has the UN been doing to promote a more equitable access to vaccines?

WHO and UNICEF have worked with other organizations to establish and manage the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility, known as COVAX. Launched in April 2020, WHO called it a “ground-breaking global collaboration to accelerate the development, production, and equitable access to COVID-19 tests, treatments, and vaccines”. Its aim is to guarantee fair and equitable access for every country in the world based on need and not purchasing power. Currently, COVAX numbers 141 participants according to the UN-supported Gavi alliance, but it’s not the only way that countries can access vaccines as they can also make bilateral deals with manufacturers.

Will equal access to vaccines bring an end to the pandemic?

 

It’s a crucial step, and in many richer countries, life is getting back to normality for many people. The situation in less developed countries is more challenging. While the delivery of vaccines, provided under the COVAX Facility, is being welcomed across the world, weak health systems, including shortages of health workers are contributing to mounting access and distribution challenges on the ground.

And equity issues don’t disappear once vaccines are physically delivered; in some nations, both rich and poor, inequities in distribution may still persist. It’s also worth noting equal access to health care is not a new issue, but central to the Sustainable Development Goals and more precisely, SDG 3 on good health and well-being, which calls for achieving universal health coverage and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all.

International Chamber of Commerce’s secretary-general, John Denton, warned that the global economy stood to lose as much as $9.2 trillion, with developed countries shouldering half the cost, if governments failed to ensure developing countries’ access to COVID-19 vaccines.

What misery? And for what purpose? Vaccine nationalism? Big Pharma should permit production of generic drugs in India and South Africa. Why can’t Big Pharma do that? Because they want to “milk” the profits from rich and poor countries.

Next time you buy a product from Pfizer, Moderna and J&J amongst others, remember they are the multi-nationals that don’t have an ESG agenda or don’t follow it. And that’s really salty!

References:

Covid vaccines: Widening inequality and millions vulnerable (https://news.un.org)

UNCTAC 15: Vaccine inequality is bad for global business (https://unctad.org)

Could Rising Fuel Costs Raise Electricity Tariffs?

Malaysians have not felt the pinch of higher oil prices this year. It has more than doubled in the last 12 months. But the government’s decision to cap petroleum and diesel prices have made the difference.

Brent crude oil was trading at its three-year high of US$83/bbl recently. Prices of other fuel sources, too, have increased sharply amid a jump in global demand and supply shortages. Natural gas and coal are used to generate nearly 95% of Peninsular Malaysia’s electricity. The costs make up nearly 42% of base electricity tariff presently.

Regulators are due to firm up the next base electricity tariff adjustment for the 2022-2024 regulatory period (RP3), which will include a new base assumption of fuel costs for the three-year period that will start in just a few short months.

How will the rising prices influence Malaysia’s electricity costs? And how will this affect households and businesses? 

Tenaga Nasional Bhd said the base tariff review and setting are under the purview of the Federal government. Variations in fuel prices are addressed under the Imbalance Cost Pass-Through Mechanism (ICPT), which has been in place since 2014. Swing in fuel costs after that adjustment will be incorporated as surcharge or rebate to the ICPT mechanism every six months. The next change is scheduled for the start of 2022. As a government-linked company, TNB has provided electricity bill discounts to end-users throughout much of the Covid-19 pandemic period.

According to TNB, RM2.67 billion worth of electricity bill discounts have been disbursed to its customers in the April-Dec 2020 period. The discounts will add up to RM3.31 billion by the end of 2021.

The average base tariff stood at 39.45 sen/kWh in 2018-2021, of which 16.5 sen was for fuel costs. In 2H2021, an ICPT surcharge of 0.87 sen/kWh that amounted to RM493 million was borne by the Electricity Industry Fund (KWIE).

In the gas market, industrial customers here are already experiencing higher gas prices — albeit still much lower than international benchmarks. Gas Malaysia Bhd raised the average natural gas selling price for 4Q2021 to RM36.42/MMBtu, up from RM30.03 per MMBtu for 3Q2021. Still, the local average natural gas price is substantially lower than the current spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) of US$35/MMBtu. Malaysia’s gas price refers to the Reference Market Price (RMP), which is benchmarked to crude oil, and lags by four months against market pricing. This means that gas RMP in 2Q2021 is reflective of prices in Dec 2020-Feb 2021.

TNB booked an RMP of RM18.92/MMBtu in 2Q2021. Comparatively, Asia’s benchmark LNG price has been on a steady increase, quadrupling from US$8/MMBtu in 1Q2021 to record high US$35.06/MMBtu on Oct 5. Traders are not anticipating the commodity to drop below US$10 until May 2023.

Newcastle spot coal price, meanwhile, touched a record high of US$280/MT on Oct 1, more than triple from around US$85/MT in 1Q2021. In the second quarter of 2021, TNB’s coal price averaged US$92/MT (RM379.80/MT), up 51.8% from US$60.60 (RM255.60) seen in 2020. The highest full-year average coal price recorded by TNB in recent years was in 2018, at US$95.90/MT (RM388.10/MT), during which it forked out RM11.71 billion for 30.8 million tonnes.

Earlier this month, Minister in the Prime Minister's Department (Economy) Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed assured the Dewan Rakyat that Malaysia is not facing an energy crisis, as experienced by other nations that are dependent on fossil fuel.

According to the Report on Peninsular Malaysia Generation Development Plan 2021-2039, the region’s power sector reserve margin is projected to be at 52% in 2021. This leaves room for the industry to manoeuvre between different power generation plants, depending on the pricing of different fuel types. The 2021-2039 report also states the retiring of eight power plants in 2021-2025 totalling 3.37 gigawatt, in exchange for more new installed capacity, the bulk of which are renewable energy (RE) plants that require no fuel costs.

In the immediate, renewables may be an answer but their problem is storage. Power storage is not feasible as yet with renewable energy. Meanwhile, the country has to re-look at coal plants which have carbon emission issues. With COPT 26, Malaysia needs to re-assess its energy mix and perhaps “resurrect” transmission of hydro power from Sarawak.

Source: https://www.theborneopost.com (Bernama photo)

Reference:

Will rising fuel costs creep into local electricity tariffs? Adam Aziz, CEO Morning Brief, October 13, 2021

https://ceomorningbrief.theedgemalaysia.com/2021/0264/

Is Malaysia Without Hope?

Murray Hunter in an article on “The Dark Forces Changing Malaysian Society” wrote essentially that Malaysia over 50 years regressed as a society. Once “Malaysia, Truly Asia” has now turned into an insular, narrow and disconnected society. An outcome of this (dark force) is the Budget 2022, a race-specific plan. 

Source: https://aseanup.com

Several issues are cited by Murray. Of these, I have selected the top five factors (The excerpts below are from Murray’s article with some paraphrasing and comments by yours truly):

1. Population Change

In 1970, Malaysia’s population was 53% Bumiputera, 35.5% Chinese and 10.6% of Indian origin. By 2019, this has changed to 62.5% Bumiputera (of which 51% is of Malay origin), 20.6% Chinese and 6.2% of Indian origin. How did this happen? Migration of Indonesians and Mindanao Muslims, higher Malay fertility rate, and emigration of Chinese are largely responsible for the demographic change. Over 1.8 million Malaysians have left our shores.

The above demographic changes have had a massive influence on the national mindset and outpouring narratives. One can observe the decrease of liberalism within society. Now everyone can be sensitive. There is an increasing censorship within the entertainment industry (local film and drama production). The local news media practices self-censorship out of fear of displeasing the government. Investigative journalism inside Malaysia has all but disappeared. Timah whiskey is the new benchmark for sensitivity.

2.      The New Economic Policy

The New Economic Policy (NEP) was designed in 1970 to increase Bumiputera participation in the economy. Equity rather than income was chosen as the measure, shaping both economic and social policy since. Most economists look at Gini coefficient and income disparity. But not Malaysia, we look at wealth! The NEP gave birth to GLCs, corruption and kleptocracy.

3.      Islamization

JAKIM is expected to receive RM1.4 billion from the 2022 budget. Islamization has greatly weakened secularism in government. An almost complete dropping of the RUKUN NEGARA or national principles.

The Parti Islam Se-Malaysia or PAS has played a key role in influencing the direction of politics and society in Malaysia. The platform of PAS has always been to develop Malaysia into an Islamic state. The PAS ideology has gone from Malay nationalism to Islamic, inspired by the Iranian revolution, Erdoganism, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

PAS is staunchly pro-Palestinian, and strongly supports Hudud laws. The PAS state government in Kelantan bans traditional Malay dance theatres, advertising depicting women not fully clothed, enforces women wearing headscarves, and segregates check-out aisles in supermarkets. The Taliban were congratulated recently by PAS for their takeover of Kabul.    

4.      The Civil Service

The civil service is one of the most powerful influences upon Malaysian society. It is primarily mono-ethnic and does not represent the ethnic diversity of the nation. About two million employee apparatus is one-dimensional in its corporate culture.

During the 18 months Pakatan Harapan rule, some ministers found it extremely difficult to assert their will over their assigned ministries. Over time, due to the cornerstone NEP, a ‘Malay agenda’ culture has developed. This is designed to cater to ethnic-Malays and little else. Corruption is not seriously frowned upon with numerous methods employed to profit from public funds.

5. The Education System

The emphasis on Islamic education over the last three generations has shaped the Malay psyche. Islam has become the central pillar of Malay life. This influence has become so strong, the rest of the community feels obligated to conform.

Institutions of public higher public education have become Malay bastions. They are managed by Malay top and middle management, with primarily Malay academics, for primarily Malay students. These institutions see the imposition of the ‘Malay agenda’ part and parcel of education. Just like the civil service, public education has been Islamized. So, the Nons send their children to Chinese schools or private schools. Hence the polarised views in society. Standards have dropped from the 70s with elite schools made equivalent to kampong schools. A socialist concept that “all are equal”. How will society progress? Meanwhile, the Malay elite send their children overseas.

On a related but separate note, household income inequality has widened with the Gini coefficient index anchored at 40 or thereabouts. Poverty is on the increase. Malay culture is under constant attack by cultural vandals. Malays are getting sick of being told they need assistance.  These types of narratives are destructive to the Malay psyche.

In the above landscape, one may lose all hope. Murray is right in one sense that we have the potential to be an Argentina or a Zimbabwe. But just reflect on other nations. The U.S. is divided. Trump has helped this division. Then again, the U.S. was in a costly civil war to end slavery in the 1860s. The U.K. has its divisions – Brexiteers or not. It took Britain over 800 years to build its shape today. And it still has the leftover misgivings of the dark days of the Empire – the East India Company provided enough fodder. So, it is with Australia, Canada or my personal favourite – France.

We have had 64 years of history as a nation. People are reasonable and responsible. Remember “Kita Jaga Kita” during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. We have inherent “belongingness” to this land and will try our best to make it work. For a while that seemed possible with PH victory on May 9, 2018. The people will rise again to restore this nation from Machiavellian ideas of “divide and rule” A new, better elite will surface. May we prayerfully seek the redemption of our land from the forces of darkness.

Reference:

The dark forces changing Malaysian society, Murray Hunter, (https://murrayhunter.substack.com)

Evergrande Chairman: Rags to Riches to Rags?

Four years after vying with Jack Ma for the title of Asia’s richest man, Evergrande chairman Hui Ka Yan’s fortune is plunging and his sprawling real estate empire is on the verge of collapse.

It’s a stunning reversal for a man who fought his way from poverty in rural China to build one of the world’s largest property companies. In previous times of trouble, Hui had been able to rely on the help of his tycoon friends and local government support. This time, with US$305 billion in liabilities and the company’s asset prices plunging, Hui appears more alone.

What happens to Hui is open to question, including whether he will retain ownership of his empire. One of his allies and fellow billionaire Zhang Jindong lost control of the retail arm of his Suning conglomerate when it received a state-backed bailout in July. Other heads of failed companies have met with worse fates, from arrest to execution.

Hui’s empire is turning into one of the biggest victims of President Xi Jinping’s efforts to curb the debt-fueled excesses of conglomerates and defuse risks in the nation’s housing market. Evergrande and its affiliated companies were built through an aggressive mix of dollar debt issuance, share sales, bank loans and shadow financing. The group now faces at the minimum a debt restructuring, which could be China’s largest ever.  

Hui remains in charge of the group and was seen publicly at the Communist Party’s 100th anniversary celebration in Tiananmen Square in July. He met with employees in September, and signed a public statement emphasizing the importance of finishing construction of sold properties.  Yet the lack of public support for Hui from Beijing and his tumbling fortune — down US$15 billion this year — is forcing him to intensify efforts to save his empire, such as selling stakes in some of Evergrande’s once-prized assets. This includes reportedly selling a majority holding in its property services unit to another developer controlled by the billionaire Chu family.

Hui has survived plenty of challenges in the past. He was born in Henan province in 1958. After losing his mother as an infant, he was raised by his grandmother and his father, who cut wood for a living. Education provided an escape from poverty. Hui graduated from Wuhan Institute of Science and Technology in 1982. After working at a steel company, he quit his job in 1992 to try his luck in real estate. 

He founded Evergrande in 1996 in the southern city of Guangzhou, and over the next decades built the firm into a colossus that controlled land five times the size of Manhattan. Hui accrued interests in soccer and volleyball teams, bottled water, online entertainment, banking and insurance. He vowed to eclipse Elon Musk with the “most powerful new energy automobile company in the world.”

As the company grew, so did Hui’s wealth. His personal fortune swelled to US$42 billion at its peak in 2017. His majority holding in Evergrande meant he benefited generously from dividends — pocketing US$8 billion alone since 2011, according to Bloomberg calculations.

His companies bought luxurious mansions, including one in Sydney that had to be sold in 2015 after the Australian government found the purchase violated foreign investment rules. He was the only director of a company that owned a US$100 million house in the hills above Hong Kong island.

Hui made sure he aligned his business with areas that meshed with the priorities of China’s Communist Party leaders, particularly Xi. He’s a member of the Political Consultative Committee, which helps advise the government on policy. In 2018, he was included on an official list of 100 outstanding entrepreneurs. Yet there was increasing concern about the size of the company’s debts, which by 2018 had swelled to more than US$100 billion. That year, China’s central bank singled Evergrande out for having the potential to pose systemic risks to the financial system, along with HNA Group, Tomorrow Holding Co. and Fosun International Ltd. China’s era of conglomerates expanding through aggressive debt-fueled acquisitions was ending.

Hui, pledging to cut his dependency on leverage, turned — as he had often done in the past — to friends and corporate connections to raise money. But regulators kept tightening the screws. Shadow loans — non-bank financing that accounted for almost one-third of Evergrande’s debt in 2019 — dried up, opaque borrowing via joint ventures was scrutinized, and regulators prevented fresh borrowing with its “three red lines” policy to limit leverage.

Such measures helped trigger a liquidity crisis for Hui in 2020. A failed backdoor listing for Evergrande’s mainland unit left it on the hook for as much as US$20 billion in repayments to investors. 

Disputes with suppliers over unpaid bills started making headlines. Some sought asset freezes, others brought projects to a grinding halt. Local support dwindled, at least publicly, as Xi intensified his crackdown on the real estate sector and pushed ahead with his campaign to create “common prosperity.” Behind the scenes, officials urged Hui to solve his company’s debt problems as quickly as possible. 

Despite Evergrande’s size, there’s little sign Beijing will act to help. A major bailout would send the wrong message when Xi is trying to rein in billionaires and close the nation’s wealth gap, said Donald Low, director of the Institute for Emerging Market Studies at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Instead, Hui has been stepping up asset sales to find the cash to repay the company’s many creditors — from retail investors demanding payment on some 40 billion yuan in Evergrande high-yield investment products, to the 1.6 million homebuyers who put deposits on apartments that have yet to be built, as well as bondholders. The company is Asia’s largest issuer of junk bonds. International ratings firms have repeatedly downgraded the company’s debt as concern grew the firm will default.

Evergrande agreed last month to sell part of its holding in a mainland bank to the local government in a deal that S&P Global Ratings said marked the first step toward solving the company’s liquidity crisis. Evergrande also negotiated the sale of a 51% stake in its property services unit to Hopson Development Holdings Ltd., Cailian reported Oct. 4. 

Pressure is mounting. Evergrande hasn’t given any indication that it paid two recent dollar bond coupons, despite financial regulators encouraging the company to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds. It’s missed interest payments to at least two of its largest bank creditors. The company’s shares — which are currently suspended — are down 80% this year, while its dollar bonds are at record lows.

As Hui looks increasingly isolated, time will tell if the billionaire can find his way out of his current challenge. Even if he does, his empire is likely to look very different, as Xi pursues his ambitious plans to remodel China’s economy.

What about Malaysia’s property tycoons? In every economic cycle there has been casualties. Before and after AFC saw many disappear from the scene – Tan Sri Loy (MBf), Tan Sri Ibrahim Mohamed (Promet Bhd) and many others. In the end, it is always the bankers who hold the assets and the debt. Recovery is tough in a soft market unless a “white” knight or the Government initiate a rescue scheme, like Danaharta. This time it is going to be one-on-one with the bankers. Remember, “...the borrower is the slave of the lender”.

Reference:

How Evergrande’s rags-to-riches founder is trying to save his empire, Bloomberg (https://ceomorningbrief.theedgemalaysia.com/2021/0263/)

Want to Future Proof Your Career?

According to the recent McKinsey Global Institute Report, 375 million jobs will vanish by 2030. Yet there is some good news on the career front: Despite all this technological innovation, there are some industries that are expected to grow alongside automation and AI. Some that will continue its stride as populations age and new laws come into effect.

Here are five sectors to consider if you want to ensure you have a career:

1. Analytics and big data

Data and analytics are job-skill buzzwords for good reason — the analytics industry is growing massively across all market sectors, and its principles are being applied to every single component of business, from sales and marketing to human resources. Estimates indicate that the industry was valued at $166 billion in 2018 and will only continue to grow. Also, most large enterprise leaders believe that if a company doesn't adapt to a data-oriented marketplace, they will lose their competitive advantage.

PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that by 2020, there will be 2.2 million data and analytics–related jobs posted in the United States and that organizations will struggle to find talent that has industry-specific experience in addition to analytics skills.

Some of the highest growth areas in analytics include data scientists, operations analysts and human resource analysts. However, a foundational analytics skill set will allow people to be business analysts in most industries. The best analysts can use data for curiosity and creativity — functions that AI won't be supplanting anytime soon.

2. Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity is becoming increasingly important as more businesses collect, share and use data as part of their practices. There have been many prominent data scandals in 2018, including the notorious Cambridge Analytica-Facebook scandal. Here, profiles of 87 million people were harvested. The importance of cybersecurity is underscored by the cost of a breach, with IBM estimating the average cost of a data breach in the United States being $7.35 million.

Despite an increasing need for cybersecurity positions, estimates by Cybersecurity Ventures indicate that there will be 3.5 million unfilled cybersecurity jobs by 2021. Jobs include security architects, penetration testers, information security analysts and chief information security officers.

3. Health care for the aging

The health-care industry is undergoing a radical shift as medical information is moving out of hospitals and into homes. Health trackers are expected to be a part of 90 percent of employee wellness plans by 2021. And AI is getting increasingly effective at diagnosing medical issues and supporting treatment plans.

However, as baby boomers reach retirement age, the proportion of the global population that will start needing some form of care, whether medical or social, will increase in turn. The United Nations estimates that by 2050, there will be 2.1 billion people over the age of 60 globally. Though they will be healthier on average than their predecessors, global health-care systems must brace themselves for high demand in geriatric caregiving.

Technology will help caregivers meet the needs of aging individuals by giving them increased connectivity and independence, but a human touch is necessary when dealing with mobility and cognitive-decline issues. The jobs of personal-care aide and home health aide are expected to undergo significant growth in the United States.

In addition to lower-skilled positions, higher-skilled roles will have a similar increase in demand. The United States has and will continue to have a shortage of qualified physicians, and there will be similarly high needs for nurse practitioners, physical therapists and other medical experts who are trained to support aging populations.

4. Renewable energy

The renewable-energy sector has become increasingly important as research indicates that human intervention is required to curb global warming trends. The International Renewable Energy Agency indicated that global jobs in the renewable-energy sector increased to more than 10 million for the first time in 2018, and they expect there to be 28 million jobs in the industry by 2050.

The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics has indicated that solar photovoltaic installers and wind turbine technicians are expected to have the highest job growth of any roles by 2026. The solar and wind energy sectors have many other fast-growing positions, with engineering, fabrication, electrical, construction and mechanical skill sets being highly valuable in these sectors. Another market segment experiencing rapid growth is the biofuel and biomass industry, which requires agricultural, biological and chemical expertise. With hemp now federally legalized as part of the 2018 Farm Bill, hemp biofuels, in particular, could also be a growth industry in the United States very soon.

5. Drones

Though drones certainly will be flown by AI in shipping and logistics when traveling from point A to point B, piloting a drone is still primarily manual and done in tandem with AI and software suites. These small unmanned aerial vehicles are going to become integral support for many other large industries, including but not limited to construction, transportation, filmmaking, telecommunications and agriculture. Some examples of uses are photography, filming, mapping, inspections of various kinds, quantity surveying or crop monitoring. The draw of the drone is that it can reach places people can't — or if they can, drones reach it with far less effort.

The drone industry is expected to hit $12.1 billion by 2021, and analyzing the data derived from inspections and monitoring is expected to be a multibillion-dollar ancillary industry.

There is currently high demand for drone pilots, and work often starts at $40/hour, increasing rapidly depending on your experience level and the specific industry you are supporting.

Nothing is for sure. Remaining agile and adaptable is the key for survival. In the end it is also the passion and hard work that will differentiate the winners from those who have followed what the peers or others that have influenced or pressured them.

 

Source: https://towardsdatascience.com

 

Reference:

These 5 hot industries are safe bet for a career that’s future proof, Debby Carreau, Jan 8, 2019 ( https://www.cnbc.com)