Do Pigs Fly...?

A lift is halal or otherwise is really not critical. We have many other real issues plaguing this country. But if you have this train of thought, we could have halal or non-halal staircases, air wells, public toilets and public transport? What about work spaces, door knobs and where we stay – halal and non-halal residences? We are veering to the edge of absurdity! So, in Malaysia, we are led to believe they do (fly)!

Source: https://halalfocus.net

Non-Muslims do not have to be Muslims to know what is morally right or wrong. All of us, both Muslims and non-Muslims, can easily understand, a convicted felon, cannot have special treatment in prison. That is haram! When we see a policeman kissing the hand of someone who stole billions from the public, it is not only disturbing but morally wrong.

Every crime needs its punishment. It is even worse when the prison system and the hospitals bent over backwards to accommodate this former PM. Where are the religious guidelines against this by Jakim and other religious bodies? Are lifts more important?

The bottom line is that there has to be visible consequences for crimes, without which there is a moral vacuum. If this is the way a criminal who stole billions is treated, are we really saying that our spiritual and moral values can be compromised for some service done by the former PM? That’s not all, the convict wanted to attend Parliament before it was dissolved. Could a convict go home for Hari Raya, Christmas or for conjugal rights?

Then we have the unbelievable frenzy to have an election. Is this to escape the clutches of the law? Will an early election change the government? And possibly the attorney general?

Is election more important than the plunging ringgit, oil prices and other commodity prices behaving erratically? And when dark clouds are gathering, warning us of the monsoon. Is this selfish and morally unacceptable? Isn’t it haram if leaders think they can abuse their powers to manipulate the administration of justice?

Whether it is haram or halal, fair or unfair, just or unjust, moral or immoral, wrong or right, most of us can all tell the difference. Yet, there are others who will turn a blind eye and compromise on what is right. 

Within this context, any religious guideline on lifts is nothing short of hypocrisy. No amount of halal labels can correct the compromises that have been made to our inherent national moral and ethical values.

Reference:

If pigs could fly... Sukeshini Nair, Aliran, 8 Oct 2022 

JAKIM: “No clause saying ‘non-halal lift’ sign necessary for certification”, Bernie Yeo, Focus Malaysia, 7 Oct 2022

Is Britain “Butler to the World”?

In 1835, Britain took out a loan for 20 million pounds. This amounted to some 40 percent of its annual income. The loan, worth 300 billion pounds today, was not paid off until 2015. Britain has often claimed that this money went toward the abolition of slavery and the slave trade. Not a cent of it went to the formerly enslaved. It actually went to enslavers, who wanted compensation for the loss of income from their “properties.” This “compensation” has cast a long but hidden shadow in British history. Among its beneficiaries were the ancestors, already rich from slave labor, of the actor Benedict Cumberbatch and of David Cameron.

This forgotten piece of history reveals an important truth about Britain. It is a place where politics has always had an incestuous relationship with the rich. Money trumps morals. Oliver Bullough, in his latest book, “Butler to the World: How Britain Helps the World’s Worst People Launder Money, Commit Crimes, and Get Away With Anything,” charts the newest manifestation of this corruption.

Source: https://www.nannybutler.com

Bullough begins with the 1956 Suez Crisis - a point of national humiliation for Britain. As Dean Acheson, secretary of state under President Harry Truman, put it, “Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role.” It soon did, argues Bullough. With the help of its bankers, it set about transforming itself into a “butler”. 

The first step in the formation of “Butler Britain,” as Bullough puts it, was the creation of the Eurodollar - an artificial currency devised by bankers in London that allowed them to trade in dollars within Britain, without being subject to American regulations on currency. 

“Money,” writes Bullough, was now worth whatever “someone would pay for it” — which only the rich could afford to do. The second step was the transformation of Britain and many of its remaining insular possessions — Gibraltar, Jersey, the British Virgin Islands — into offshore tax havens. This allowed the wealthy to sequester their money, in dollars, under British jurisprudence while avoiding the regulations and taxation of poorer countries.

Perhaps the most disturbing story in the book involves, appropriately enough, Russia and Ukraine. Given the strategic importance of Ukraine as a purveyor of Russian gas, President Vladimir Putin installed a puppet to oversee the Ukrainian side of this business. This man was Dmitry Firtash, whose identity was long hidden. Once exposed, however, he was able to move to Britain under its “golden visa” scheme, which allowed anyone wealthy enough to immigrate in the name of “investment.”

Firtash partnered with an aristocrat named Raymond Asquith, who now holds a peerage in Parliament. He donated money to the University of Cambridge, was hosted by Parliament, opened the London Stock Exchange and even met the Duke of Edinburgh. His ascent through the British establishment was astonishing, and nobody thought to investigate where his money came from. This is just one example of how much Russian money flowed into Britain after 1991 and the political influence it purchased.

None of this would have been possible, Bullough argues, without the collusion of British lawmakers, or the bankers and lawyers with whom they had intimate ties. The bankers, for their part, gave the same two excuses: one, if we don’t do it, someone else will; two, our work will create wealth, reduce poverty and promote peace. (As the head of Goldman Sachs once modestly put it: “We’re doing God’s work.”) Most British lawmakers either looked the other way or drained the nation’s investigative agencies of money and resources in the name of austerity. This is in stark contrast to the United States, where agencies such as the FBI have far greater independence and power.

One can sense the urgency and dismay in Bullough’s writings. Britain is better than this, he says. But Britain chooses to be corrupt and complicit, otherwise please explain how money from India, Malaysia,, China, Russia, Myanmar, Arab states and many others were (and are being) poured into, to buy property, businesses, yachts, gold and every other conceivable asset? Modern Britain has poor, vulnerable Brits but these foreigners live in luxury and face low taxes! Even if money was “stolen” from poorer countries, many are able to stay with impunity. Extradition treaties are not honoured – otherwise London will lose its status as a major financial centre in the world!

Reference:

Why Britain welcomes international bad guys – and their money, reviewed by Balaji Revichandran, Washington Post, July 15, 2022

Wealth Inequality: Thomas Piketty’s View

Thomas Piketty’s 753-page book Capital in the Twenty-First Century, published in 2013, sold 2.5 million copies worldwide and helped put inequality on the global agenda. Piketty is a French economist. His latest, Capital and Ideology, may prove still more influential. The book is on global history of inequality and the stories that societies tell to justify it, from pre-modern India to Donald Trump’s US. 

Thomas Piketty

Source: https://cdn.britannica.com

Capital and Ideology builds on Piketty’s long-standing argument that inequality has soared across the world since 1980. It proposes strong remedies. Piketty wants to slap wealth taxes of 90 per cent on any assets over $1 billion. He is nostalgic about the postwar decades when British and American top marginal income-tax rates were over 80 per cent.

Much of Piketty’s information comes from the World Inequality Database (WID), which he created with colleagues. A free website, to which over 100 researchers have contributed, it claims to include “series on income inequality for more than 30 countries, spanning most of the 20th and early 21st centuries, with over 40 additional countries now under study.” The WID’s coverage keeps getting more international, as more material from Asia, Africa and Latin America is added. The site is now trying to expand its focus from income to the even harder-to-chart terrain of wealth.

In an era when technology platforms are arguably concentrating wealth in the hands of a diminishing number of people in the Valley, Piketty’s advocacy of much higher taxes has attracted the attention of both progressives and radicals around the world.

Capital and Ideology starts from the premise that inequality is a political choice. It is something societies opt for, not the inevitable outcome of technology and globalisation. To Piketty, history is a battle of ideas.

Every unequal society, he says, creates an ideology to justify inequality – that allows the rich to fall asleep in their townhouses while the homeless freeze outside. He recounts the justifications that recur throughout history: “The wealth will trickle down”. “The rich will give it back through philanthropy”. “Property is liberty”. “The poor are undeserving”. “Once you start redistributing wealth, you won’t know where to stop”. “Communism failed”. “The money will go to black people” – an argument that explains, Piketty says, why inequality is extreme in countries with historic racial divides such as Brazil, South Africa and the US.

Another common justification is that the rich deserve their wealth. Piketty, who describes entrepreneurs such as Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg as “oligarchs”, disagrees. He points out that both men benefited from public infrastructure, public education, decades of computer science and the invention of the internet. 

All these justifications for inequality add up to what Piketty calls “sacralisation of property”. But today, he writes, these justifications have frayed. Ever fewer people believe them. There’s growing belief that so-called meritocracy has been subverted by the rich, who get their children into the best universities, buy politicians and dodge taxes.

Even in relatively equal Europe, the concentration of wealth is “stunning” and growing: The bottom 40 per cent owns barely five per cent of the wealth, while the top ten per cent owns 50-60 per cent.

The top 1 per cent of Americans now earn a total of over 20 per cent of national income; the bottom 50 per cent has just 12 per cent. The average income of an American top one-percenter in 2015 was $1.3 million. For those in the bottom half, it was $15,000, a figure almost unchanged in 40 years. Five years later, it’s about $16,000.

Piketty concludes that, however you measure it, global inequality, even in Europe, looks hideous. His proposed remedies are drastic. He calls for “educational justice” – essentially, spending the same amount on each person’s education. He favours giving workers a big say over how their companies are run, as in Germany and Sweden. But his main proposal is for wealth taxes.

Far from wanting to abolish property, he proposes spreading it to the bottom half of the population who, even in rich countries, have never owned much. Spreading wealth, says Piketty, requires redefining private property as “temporary” and limited: you can enjoy it in moderation, but you can’t pass it on to your children. He notes that very high tax rates didn’t prevent fast growth in the 1950-1980 period. However, no leading politician anywhere today is pushing Piketty’s proposed 90 per cent tax on wealth over $1 billion. Even Sanders, who favours a wealth tax on the US’s top 0.1 per cent (meaning every married couple with $32 million and up) only suggests a top rate of eight per cent on wealth over $10 billion.

In Malaysia, with Gini co-efficient at 0.4 for several years, inequality seems entrenched. Unless the rich (earnings above RM5 million per year) are taxed higher, corporates with “super-profits” (owing to adverse events in the world) are taxed via windfall tax and opportunities are created in education and employment, inequalities will remain for decades.

Reference:

This economist has a radical plan to solve wealth inequality, Simon Kuper, WIRED, 14 April 2020

China’s Prospects and Impact on Malaysia

For two decades (or more), China’s factory-driven economy awed the world as it expanded at more than 10% per year. But the country has missed double-digit growth over the past decade. The GDP shrank from April to June this year compared with the previous three months. 

The drop happened because lockdowns to stop COVID-19 infections hurt factory work and export shipments. Those setbacks also added to financial hardships among China’s top property firms. 

China’s $18 trillion economy, the world’s second largest after the United States, shrunk 2.6% from April to June compared to the first three months of the year. China’s economy grew close to 10% per year from 2003 to 2010, World Bank data show. Annual growth gradually slowed through 2019 before dipping to 2.2% in the first pandemic year, 2020, and rebounding to 8.1% last year.

Source:https://chinafund.com/china-and-malaysia-trade/

The lockdown-weary country recorded more than 6% unemployment in April, compared with nearly 5% (4.8%) at the end of 2021. Younger workers and smaller firms have been hit especially hard, analysts say. Chinese consumers are now spending less than normal. Retail sales grew at a low of 3% in June, even as lockdowns eased. 

Last year, the economy was already faltering due to problems in real estate and tech. A number of big name Chinese property developers began to default on billions of dollars’ worth of loans last year. Homeowners who bought units through a “pre-pay model” are now refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes.

 In tech, Chinese regulators began in cracking down on the country’s most powerful firms in late 2020, including e-commerce giant Alibaba Group and social media juggernaut Tencent. Regulators have cited concerns about monopolistic activity and data security.

China’s economic malaise is worrying world markets because the “slope” of recovery is less steep than it was when COVID-19 hit in 2020. Missed mortgage payments threaten the value of assets, including property. Disruptions to export shipping and manufacturing in China have hobbled supply chains in much of the world, in turn adding to inflation and fears of recession.

Officials in Beijing are nudging the economy forward again by spending on infrastructure. The GDP is already showing signs of recovery. Demand for cement and cars, including electric ones, is up. Officials are also relaxing last year’s tough stance on the tech industry.

Any future lockdowns will probably target neighbourhoods rather than all of Shenzhen or Shanghai as the government did earlier this year. However, China’s goal of 5.5% economic growth this year is “very ambitious.”

The government-run China Daily posted an investment bank editorial last week calling for 5.3% economic growth year on year from July through September, and 5.9% in the final months of 2022.

The impact for Malaysia is considerable from both the trade and exchange rate perspective. Our trade with China was USD176.8 billion (RM765.6 billion) last year and the ringgit follows in tandem with the yuan. Hopefully, China recovers for us to have a reasonable year (2022).

References:

What next for China’s economy? Ralph Jennings, VOA, 27 July 2022

China remains Malaysia’s largest trading partner, says envoy, Adrian David, NST, 19 June 2022

Debt to GDP: Does it Matter?

 

Since COVID-19, the global economy has been put to the test with supply chain disruptions, price volatility for commodities, challenges in the job market, and declining income from tourism. The World Bank has estimated that almost 97 million people have been pushed into extreme poverty as a result of the pandemic.

Globally governments have had to increase their expenditures to deal with higher healthcare costs, unemployment, food insecurity, and to help businesses to survive. Countries have taken on new debt to provide financial support for these measures, which has resulted in the highest global debt levels in half a century.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is a simple metric that compares a country’s public debt to its economic output. By comparing how much a country owes and how much it produces in a year, economists can measure a country’s theoretical ability to pay off its debt.

The top 10 countries in terms of debt-to-GDP: 

Japan, Sudan, and Greece top the list with debt-to-GDP ratios well above 200%, followed by Eritrea (175%), Cape Verde (160%), and Italy (154%).

In 2010, Japan became the first country to reach a debt-to-GDP ratio 200%, and it now sits at 257%. In order to finance new debt, the Japanese government issues bonds which get bought up primarily by the Bank of Japan. By the end of 2020, the Bank of Japan owned 45% of government debt outstanding.

A rapid increase in government debt could be a major cause for concern. Generally, the higher a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is, the higher chance that country could default on its debt, therefore creating a financial panic in the markets. This is assuming its borrowings are in USD or a foreign currency.

The World Bank showed that countries that maintained a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 77% for prolonged periods of time experienced economic slowdowns. Again, the work of Reinhart and Rogoff suggest a ratio of above 90% will result in growth declining drastically.

COVID-19 has worsened a debt crisis that has been brewing since the 2008 global recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that at least 100 countries will have to reduce expenditures on health, education, and social protection. Also, 30 countries in the developing world have high levels of debt distress, meaning they’re experiencing great difficulties in servicing their debt.

This crisis is hitting poor and middle-income countries harder than rich countries. Wealthier countries are borrowing to launch fiscal stimulus packages while low and middle income countries cannot afford such measures, potentially resulting in wider global inequality.

Global debt reached $303 trillion by the end of 2021.

Global government debt is set climb to $71.6 trillion in 2022 or 94% of world’s GDP. For the U.S. the ratio is estimated at 125.6% in 2022 and 127% in 2027. Debt is projected to continue to rise in emerging markets, driven mainly by China, reaching 72.1 percent of GDP by 2024. China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to be 77.8 percent in 2022 and continue to rise to 95.4 percent in 2027.

Over the medium term, global public debt is likely to stabilize at about 95 percent of GDP, 11 points higher than before the pandemic, according to the IMF.

Malaysia’ Federal Government debt was RM958.4 billion or 63.3% of GDP in 2021. The good point is over RM925 billion or 96% is in RM, which means exchange rate exposure is manageable. That’s the key – USD or RM? If USD then we are beholden to the U.S. Otherwise less so, but requires more prudence going forward. Why? Future generations have to bear the cost of today’s indulgence!

References:

Visualing the state global debt, by country, Raul Amoros, Visual Capitalist

Global public debt to fall to 94% of GDP in 2022: IMF, Kyodo News, 20 Apr 2022

Happy Deepavali

 

A “Rules-Based International Order”: The “New” U.S. Foreign Policy Thrust?

The phrase “rules-based international order” seems to have become a job requirement for a top position in the U.S. foreign-policy apparatus. The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s opening statement during his recent meeting with top Chinese officials was about “rules-based international order”. The alternative is a world in which might makes right and winners take all. The suggestion is that China, is not only out to dismantle the U.S.-led order but also out to bring back the days of “might makes right.”

But the distinction between the United States’ supposed commitment to a system of rules and China’s alleged lack thereof is misleading. First, it overlooks the United States’ own willingness to ignore, evade, or rewrite the rules whenever they seem inconvenient. Washington sometimes thinks it is perfectly okay for might to make right and for winners to take all. The collapse of the Soviet Union, when the United States took full advantage of a weakened post-Soviet Russia, is a perfect example. Then it was Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and many more, where might takes all – and then withdraws?

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

But China accepts and even defends many principles of the existing order, although of course not all of them. That situation may change in the future, of course, but even a vastly more

powerful China would undoubtedly seek to retain whatever features of the present order serve its interests.

Statements such as Blinken’s imply that abandoning today’s rules-based order would leave us in a lawless, rule-free world of naked power politics, unregulated by any norms or principles whatsoever. This is simply not the case. All international orders—global, regional, liberal, realist, or whatever—require a set of rules to manage the various interactions that inevitably arise between different polities.

In short, the issue is not the United States’ preference for a “rules-based” order and China’s alleged lack of interest in it; rather, the issue is who will determine which rules pertain where. 

The differences between the American and Chinese conceptions are relatively  straightforward. The United States (generally) prefers a multilateral system (albeit one with special privileges for some states, especially itself) that is at least somewhat mindful of individual rights and certain core liberal values (democratic rule, individual freedom, rule of law, market-based economies, and so on). By contrast, China favors a more Westphalian conception of order, one where state sovereignty and non-interference are paramount and liberal notions of individual rights are downplayed if not entirely dismissed. 

In the short term, U.S. efforts to promote its preferred set of rules will benefit from commitment to active and constructive diplomacy, in sharp contrast to the bullying of the Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Merely showing up at major global forums, treating other participants with respect, and showing a degree of empathy for others’ concerns are going to play well. If Beijing remains committed to its self-defeating “wolf warrior diplomacy,” a U.S. charm offensive will be even more effective. In fact, it’s best for the U.S. to retrace the era of Theodore Roosevelt – “speak softly and carry a big stick”?

Reference:

China wants a “rules-based international order,” too, Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Policy, 31 March 2021

Truly Semangat Keluarga Malaysia!

 THE actions of a group of Malay motorcycle riders who risked their lives to rescue a Chinese man who was kidnapped in Ampang, Selangor, have earned the praise of the Royal Malaysian Police Force (PDRM).

In a viral 2-minute-11-second video, a group of five men were seen forcing a shirtless man into a white Toyota Vellfire against his will.  The video, which captured the kidnapping attempt on a busy street, was recorded from a bystander’s point of view. The scene changes halfway through the video, with the person who recorded the video is now on a motorcycle in pursuit of the Vellfire.

The rider joins a group of motorcyclists whisking in and out of traffic to chase the vehicle to try and get it to stop.

Source: https://www.kkmm.gov.my

In the caption of the video posted on Facebook by one “Najib Razak Must Go”, the user wrote: “This is the real semangat #KeluargaMalaysia where Malaysians help one another without seeing skin colour.” The video amassed over 45,000 views and hundreds of comments.

In a statement, Ampang Jaya district police chief said they received a call at around 5:30pm on Thursday (Sept 29) about the incident, which took place outside a restaurant on Jalan Pandan Indah 1/23D.

Investigations revealed that the victim, a 38-year-old businessman, was eating alone at the restaurant when a group, suspected to be locals, turned up and started dragging him to their car.  Despite screaming and trying to escape their clutches, his efforts were in vain and he was taken in their Vellfire. At around 10:45pm, the victim showed up at the Ampang Jaya district police headquarters after being let go, believed to be in Klang, Selangor.

The scuffle is believed to have taken place as a result of the victim’s debts to his employers.

The case is being investigated under Section 365 of the Penal Code for kidnapping or abduction with intent to wrongfully confine someone, which provides for a maximum seven-year jail term and fine upon conviction. The suspects are yet to be apprehended.

This one act brings warmth to one’s heart. And there are many more that are not told. This is what Semangat Keluarga Malaysia is about, caring for each other without issues of race, religion or class. Hope we will have more (of this) and the Government could use some (of these stories) to promote national unity, if that is the object of a harmonious Malaysia!

Reference: 

Cops praise Malay riders who risked their lives to rescue Chinese kidnap victim, Vinodh Pillai, Focus Malaysia, 1 October 2022

Are We in a Currency Crisis?

 A currency crisis can be broadly defined as any situation in the foreign exchange markets where a currency suddenly and/or unexpectedly loses substantial value relative to other currencies. In most cases, a currency crisis is not an isolated event. It usually follows a financial or socio-political crisis.

Although modern currency crises are associated with rapid hyperinflation and sustained degradation of political and financial institutions, hyperinflation and currency crises are separate phenomena. Historical instances of currency crises include Germany after the First World War, Zimbabwe in the 2000s, Argentina in 2018, and Turkey in 2018.

A fall in domestic currency exchange rates occurs for several reasons, including:

• Speculative attack. The main targets are countries that adopt a fixed exchange rate and have weak economic fundamentals. Targets are usually countries with little foreign exchange reserves or running twin deficits for years. (twin deficits are when a country runs both a fiscal deficit and a current account deficit).

• Increase in inflation expectations leading to hyperinflation as explained earlier. Currency crises are typically preceded by periods of rising inflation and high inflation expectations. 

Turkish lira against USD

• Banking crisis or default. Currency crises usually start with the failure of financial institutions to pay off their debts.

Based on an IMF working paper, several indicators are useful for providing signals and anticipating currency crisis including:

• International reserves – The credibility of the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market depends on foreign reserves’ position. High foreign exchange reserves make the central bank more credible.

• Real exchange rate – Exchange rate overvaluation plays a vital role in sharp exchange rate depreciation. Overvaluation often occurs in a fixed exchange rate system, when the real exchange rate does not reflect supply and demand. That, in turn, encourages speculators to sell the domestic currency, causing acute depreciation.

• Domestic inflation – High inflation, as in hyperinflation, reduces confidence in the domestic currency. Many people switch to foreign currency and sell domestic currency. Such panic can lead to a currency crisis.

• Trade balance – Chronic trade deficits leave a country vulnerable to bouts of minor speculation on the forex market.

• Export performance – Exports are a major source of entry for foreign currencies. High exports increase the supply of foreign currency and foreign reserves. It is useful not only for covering import payments but also for intervention in the forex market.

• Money growth – Growth in the money supply, especially M2, helps predict episodes of sharp depreciation. When the money supply grows faster than real GDP growth, it creates high inflation pressure. It shows you more money chasing less stuff.

• Real GDP growth – Currency crises tend to occur when real GDP growth is low.

• Fiscal deficit – A high deficit increases government debt. To pay off debt, the government finances it through seigniorage (printing money). That will likely lead to uncontrolled inflation, increasing distrust of the domestic currency.

The possible solutions to the currency crisis include:

— Adopt a floating exchange rate. 

— Raise interest rates

— Fiscal policy tightening

— Control of capital outflows

— IMF bailout funds

Malaysia only needs to raise OPR by 0.75% to 1.0% to stem the outflow and halt further depreciation of the ringgit. The other measures are not applicable at this stage as we are not in a currency crisis yet (a drastic depreciation of currency).

References:

Currency Crisis, CFI Team, Corporate Finance Institute

Currency crisis: causes, signs, impacts and possible solutions, Ahmad Nasrudin (https://penpoint.com)

Robust Cyber-Security Infrastructure Needed

Global monetary losses due to cybercrime in 2021 was around US$6 trillion (RM27.4 trillion). Malaysia needs a robust cyber-security infrastructure to stave off cyber attacks from derailing its economy. This is according to US-based global cyber-security specialist Palo Alto Networks Inc.

Cyber-security is the practice of protecting critical systems and sensitive information from digital attacks.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

Internet adoption is directly correlated with economic development. The importance of data security was not only pertinent for information industries, but also for other manufacturing and traditional businesses. The proliferation of innovative technologies is transforming the nation’s financial ecosystem, enabling new business models such as neobanks to grow and become a mainstay in an economy.

Neobanks are online-only financial institutions that are similar to banks. It is therefore imperative the internet is given adequate protection against cyber attacks to secure the data it carries, stores and transmits.

For context, the amount of USD6 trillion loss is the equivalent to the gross domestic product or GDP value just behind the world’s third-largest economy after the United States and China. This is according to Cyber-security Ventures. 

Emails and collaboration tools have become one of the most common and overlooked cyber threat entry points today. These incidents generally start with a phishing email requesting email credentials. Business email compromise (BEC) incidents could be extremely costly and impactful to organisations. The most common motive in BEC attacks is financial fraud via wire transfers, that often results in additional spam or phishing emails sent from compromised accounts.

In Malaysia, it was reported that a total of 71,833 commercial crime cases involving losses amounting to RM5.2bil were recorded from 2020 to May 2022. Cyber fraud is on the rise in Malaysia. A total of 13,703 cases with losses amounting to RM539 million were reported in 2019, and the number increased to 17,227 in 2020 with losses of RM511.2 million. In 2021, 20,701 cases were recorded with losses of RM560.8 million. This is according to the IGP. For January-July 2022, online fraud cases amounted to RM414 million.

There are 10 different types of scammers from their encounters on social media. These include porn chat scams, mysterious love scams, Nigerian inheritance scams, KLIA pick-up scams, forex, gambling, fake investment guru, Ah Long, job scams and various online sales.

Two ways commonly adopted by scammers to syphon off money – using an Android Package Kit (APK) file to “hijack” mobile phones and steal the transaction activation code (TAC) number and enticing someone by using emotions. This is according to LGMS Bhd, a company involved in forensic audit.

Personally, I am rather cautious on online transactions. The dangers of scammers/security breaches restrain many from using only payment systems. Banks are vulnerable and generally deny any security breaches. Consumers are usually left on their own. BNM generally favours the bank than the consumer. So how could one safely do internet banking?

References:

Robust cybersecurity infrastructure needed to prevent attacks, Daljit Dhesi, The Star, 26 Sept 2022

We’re losing the battle, warns expert, Aliza Shah and Iylia Marsya Iskandar, The Star, 26 Sept 2022

IGP: RM414mil lost from 12,092 online fraud cases in Jan-July, Bernama, TheEdge CEO Morning Brief, 27 Sept 2022

Are We Sick to the Stomach?

Malaysia suffered losses close to RM1 trillion over the last 25 years due to corruption as well as leakages in the country's management. Emir Research President and Chief Executive Officer said the total represented almost four per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since 1997. Data over the last 25 years showed that on average two to four per cent of the money that was lost from the country's GDP was due to corruption.

Does corruption make you sick to the stomach? You may only throw-up once the bacteria of corruption is well-entrenched, and you are personally impacted.

A research paper published in the Asia-Pacific Journal on Public Administration and Policy by David Seth Jones (July 2022) suggests that the perceived degree of corruption in Malaysia remains rampant because of the ineffective implementation of anti-corruption measures. The culture of money politics based on cronyism between political operators and business leaders have left our grandiose anti-corruption slogans ineffective.

https://moneycompass.com.my

This, together with political interference to frustrate enforcement, especially against prominent personalities, and the clearly limited impact of such preventive measures, have made Malaysia’s fight against graft impotent. The research concludes that with our political and business culture, and the style of governance practised, the ‘political will’ to battle large scale corruption in Malaysia does not exist. Another TI study suggests 61% of companies in Malaysia do not have adequate procedures to combat corruption.

Malaysia is now ranked 62 out of 180 in the latest global corruption perception index, when just a few years ago, in 2019, we were ranked 51. Perhaps, we can borrow from other countries how to change things.

Uruguay, once an epicentre for corruption, now ranks 18 out of 180 countries in the latest global corruption perception index, and is the least corrupt in South America. This country is a rare modern phenomenon, where their society has succeeded in curbing corruption. They have successfully pushed a virtuous cycle of institutional change toward better governance. Progressive action on the part of Uruguay’s citizens and their non-deferential behaviour with the ‘elites’, when it came to public policies, were essential in transforming the country from one of the worst governed and corrupt nations, to its current position.

In 1985, civilian rule was re-established in this country (Uruguay), and with that came the creation of political parties that were formed from old alliances. But social and civil society groups made huge efforts to build coalitions with others who shared similar aspirations.

For instance, the urban sector, which was badly hit by economic crises, started channelling their demands through a new coalition called Frente Amplio (Broad Front). This partnership of social and civil society groups became a real political option for the citizens against the traditional ‘elites’ in power.

Fresh demands for fair access to public resources, accountability, and better-quality public services changed things. Eventually, successive Uruguayan general elections saw only those politicians who delivered on and were credibly committed to their announced reforms were actually elected. And, this started changing the incentives of ‘elites’ to act in certain ways, and it made it extremely difficult for cronyism to prevail.

The people of Uruguay have shown us the way. Ordinary citizens can influence the national landscape by changing the narrative. We are the only ones who can ensure that we have a safe, stable and fair country.

We must also be engaged in social and civil organisations and get involved by direct participation and by actively joining public hearings and deliberations. Each of these expressions of collective action complements each other. So, the Uruguay example shows us that if we stick together and demand change collectively, using various modes of engagement, eventually the elites will succumb. 

Beyond the above, we need the following:

(i) Corruption Eradication and Recovery Commission – this is either a revamped MACC or a separate entity placed under a Bipartisan Oversight Committee of our Parliament. We need more than the “kleptocrats” in jail. There must be a culture-change and a recovery of moneys stolen from the Rakyat. (We may not recover all the moneys but strenuous efforts to recover the same must be done by an independent party);

(ii) Special Court on Corrupt Practices – this is to speed-up our corrupt cases which otherwise will be abused frivolously with endless delays through the court process; and

(iii) Office of Budget Responsibility (“OBR”) modelled on U.K.’s OBR, we need an independent think-tank that evaluates Government’s fiscal measures, especially the Budget. Otherwise, the Government’s fiscal policy and management are controlled largely by the executive branch with little oversight.

Now with the impending GE15, we have an opportunity to re-set the course for our nation. Then with proper antibiotics the bacteria of corruption could be removed.

References:

Malaysia loses RM1 trillion within 25 years due to corruption, Diana Aziz, Sinar Daily, 22 September 2022

Sick to the stomach? What are you doing about corruption? Shankar R. Santhiram, FMT, 18 August 2022

Singapore: Asia’s New Financial Centre

Hong Kong has lost its premier finance centre status to Singapore in a global ranking list. New York and London maintained their number one and two spots.

Singapore jumped three places to third in the twice-a-year Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI) which assesses 119 cities around the world.

Hong Kong has adhered to a version of China’s strict zero-Covid rules throughout the pandemic, battering the economy and deepening a brain drain as rival business hubs reopened. The city still mandates three days of hotel quarantine for all international arrivals while its border with the Chinese mainland is mostly closed.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore

In contrast, Singapore successfully shifted to endemicity earlier this year and has reopened without restrictions. The city-state is hosting a slew of financial and business conferences in the coming months as well as a Formula 1 night race soon. 

San Francisco came in at number five in the survey, up two spots. Shanghai, which was shut down earlier this year under China’s coronavirus controls, was number six followed by Los Angeles, Beijing and Shenzhen. Paris took 10th spot, replacing Tokyo which fell to 16th place. Kuala Lumpur dropped to 56th spot (down from 48th position previously).

There is a desire to create Kuala Lumpur as a financial centre regionally and perhaps globally. Then there is our Labuan Offshore Financial Centre (LOFC). So there is a little bit of confusion – which is it? Besides that a financial centre is not the building or an area like TRX, it is the people and the institutions that participate for various reasons.  Singapore didn’t become a top centre by chance, default or sheer providence. It has been working on this for over 40 years. It takes plan, people, and providence to turn your mission into reality. Ask Dubai or Qatar, both working their way up the ladder (GFCI).

In Malaysia, we have too many issues to become a regional centre. The Government and BNM would say we are a global powerhouse in Islamic finance. That’s partly true. The Middle-East, however, does not accept our Shariah principles and hence any comparison or ranking is not fully accepted or supported. So, what do we want to be? If we get our goals right then maybe we could create a Financial Free Zone (FFZ) where local issues are not applicable and a separate authority runs the FFZ, not BNM or the LOFC.

References:

Asia’s new financial centre, The Star, 24 September 2022

Global Financial Centres Index 32, September 2022

Will Rising Obesity Impact Economies?

Rising levels of obesity are set to cost the world economy 3.3% of GDP by 2060, slowing development in lower-income countries. This also makes it hard for people to lead healthy lives.

Globally, nearly two in three adults are now living with overweight and obesity. An AMJ Global Health report projects that this will be three in four adults by 2060.  

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

Currently it costs 2.2% of global GDP, and the biggest increases are expected to be seen in lower-resourced countries. China, the US and India are projected to experience the highest impact in absolute terms – costing the countries US$10 trillion, US$2.5 trillion and US$850 billion, respectively. As a proportion of the economy, the worst impacted countries are set to include the UAE, where obesity would account for 11% of GDP, and Trinidad and Tobago at 10.2%.

Population and economic growth are the primary drivers of obesity prevalence – as countries increase their incomes, they experience changes in diet to highly processed foods. In rich nations, ageing populations are also a major factor as older people find it harder to lose weight.

The report stressed the economic costs of high weight and obesity “are not attributable to individual behaviour” but rather a consequence of social and commercial priorities shaping environments. As such, responsibility for tackling the issues lies with those in power. Better labelling, counselling, drug treatment and taxing processed foods high or higher will help.

Reference:

Rising obesity projected to hamper developing economies, AFP/FMT, 21 September 2021

Is Budget 2023 Void?

Budget 2023 has no legality with Parliament now dissolved before it (Budget) was approved. The Federal spending plan for next year would only remain a Bill until it undergoes the complete process of debate and voting approval. Consequently, any measures or policies announced in the budget cannot be implemented until a new one is tabled by the next government. The same Bill could be tabled again in order for it to proceed to the second reading when debate could take place, or a new one submitted entirely. Either scenario could lead to significant delays in passing Budget 2023 as both would have to wait until the 15th Parliament is sworn in, which could be weeks or months after the general election.

Source: https://budget.mof.gov.my

The tabling of Budget 2023 was expedited by three weeks to October 7 and on hindsight reflects a propaganda piece or perhaps an election manifesto.

In 1999, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who was the prime minister at the time, sought the dissolution of Parliament shortly after the tabling of Budget 2000 in November, and his finance minister was forced to table another one at the end of February 2000 or around three months later, after Barisan Nasional prevailed.

It is a disservice to Malaysians at a time when the country should be grappling urgently with an impending monsoon, a cost-of-living crisis and a rapidly depreciating currency. The present Budget does not take care of anybody’s needs, including the civil service (since it is not approved as yet). On all accounts it was an academic exercise and a pure waste of many people’s time. Commentaries were made by many including accounting firms, captains of industry, academics and newspapers/media columnists on the positives of the Budget. But it all seems rather futile in the light of what has happened. Will the PM or FM remain in a new Government? That is for the voters to decide. Meanwhile, this Budget could be said to be dead on arrival!

Reference:

Budget 2023 void if Parliament disbands before its passage, constitutional experts say, Opalyn Mok, The Malay Mail, 2 Oct 2022

Do You Need RM1m to Retire?

Those retiring in 20 to 30 years will need to have at least RM900,000 to RM1mil, according to Employees Provident Fund’s (EPF) chief strategy officer. The basic threshold now is RM240,000. The “bare minimum” after factoring inflation and medical bills is the higher figure of RM1m.

For those retiring soon, about RM600,000 is required to have a “dignified” retirement in Kuala Lumpur. Based on this, only about 4% of Malaysians could afford to retire.

Alor Setar was the cheapest place to have a comfortable retirement. A person would need RM480,000 to retire there. Still this is twice the basic threshold for retirement savings of RM240,000 earlier held.

Some 56% contributors, who are 54 years old, have less than RM50,000 in their accounts.

Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org

With RM50,000, one can only sustain for a little over four years, assuming that their expenses amount to RM1,000 a month. Currently, about 52% EPF members have less than RM10,000 in their accounts while about 27% have less than RM1,000.

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, about 22% members met the basic saving requirement but the numbers fell to 14% after several rounds of special withdrawal schemes namely i-Sinar, i-Lestari, i-Citra and most recently the special withdrawal facility of RM10,000.

Deputy Finance Minister I told the Dewan Negara in August that in total, RM145bil was withdrawn by EPF members under the four withdrawal facilities. Overall, the impact of these programmes related to Covid-19 on members’ savings was estimated at RM155bil, comprising RM145bil withdrawn by members under the four withdrawal programmes, and almost RM10bil from the impact of the employee share statutory contribution rate reduction programme.

Solutions are not easy. One may need to debate on extending retirement age to 70? Use the Socso funds for retirement – like a pension? Restore EPF savings partially though a government “bail-out”? Use “excess profit” earned by corporate for the EPF restoration fund?

None of the measures mentioned above are simple to implement politically but the government has a responsibility and an obligation to restore the funds after permitting the withdrawals from the four facilities.

Reference:

RM1mil needed for retirement, Fatimah Zainal, Ragananthini Vethasalam, The Star, 23 September 2022

The U.S. Dollar or an Asian Dollar?

The interest rate differential in favour of the US dollar and it’s safe haven status will continue to keep USD strong. This is until inflation expectations and interest rates projections peak and policymakers start to roll back measures.

The ringgit closed lower at RM4.65 against the dollar on 4 October 2022. More gains for the USD could be on the cards. The ringgit now having crossed 4.60 levels, it is now expected to weaken to 4.65 in the near term.

The local unit has depreciated by about 12% against the greenback since January 2021. In comparison, it fell by about 27% against the dollar over a 36-month period in 2014-2016 when crude oil prices crashed and from the Fed tapering action. The ringgit also fell by some 28% against the dollar during a 10-month period following the Global Financial Crisis and 43.7% (from April 1998 to January 1999) during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and 1998.

The weak ringgit in the meantime would benefit export-oriented industries such as palm oil producers and, electrical and electronics manufacturers while costing domestic market oriented industries with high import content.

Despite Malaysia’s annual food imports over RM60bil and core inflation in August rising to 4.7% driven by higher food prices, inflationary pressures on consumers could be limited as final consumption goods account for about 9% of the overall consumer price index basket.

Cost pressures will likely be felt via imports of intermediate goods which account for some 55% of the country’s imports. US dollar debt, meanwhile, is low at 5% of total external debt.

Current projections imply another 125 basis point tightening over November and December which would take the Fed fund rate to the 4.25% and 4.5%. The consensus is for Bank Negara to raise its overnight policy rate (OPR) by another 25 basis points in November.

Is this enough? No, another 0.25% rise is not going to stem the ringgit’s decline. It has to be significant and impactful to be meaningful. Why doesn’t BNM do it? It is into “growth with stability” mentality which means measured and “behind the curve” increase. What is the upshot? Many countries in Asia face outflow of funds with the Fed’s actions. Can it lead to the Asian Financial Crisis 2.0? Yes and no. Yes, if the outflows damage markets which lead to a contagion. No, many Asian central banks hold higher foreign reserves which could stem outflows.

In the immediate, it is necessary to follow the U.S. in “upping” the rates or at least to keep the interest differential as low as possible. In the medium to long-term, develop an Asian dollar backed by rare earth, commodities and other reserves as the new reserve currency for the region. 

Asia needs a central bank like the ECB for Europe. Many have also asked what if China dumps its reserves in U.S. Treasuries – that’s over USD 3 trillion! China will not do that in the immediate because it has to sell the dollars it receives for another reserve currency – the yuan? This is not feasible. It will prefer an Asian Central Bank and a reserve currency like the proposed Asian dollar before it dumps U.S. Treasuries. That may end the hegemony of the USD. A prospect that the U.S. will oppose strongly and call it “economic terrorism”.

Reference:

US dollar likely to keep going strong, Bhupinder Singh, The Star, 28 September 2022

British Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng Hails “New Era”!

Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the highest tax cuts in 50 years and hailed it a "new era" for the UK economy.

Income tax and the stamp duty on home purchases will be cut and planned rises in business taxes have been scrapped. It comes as the Bank of England warns the UK may already be in recession. The pound sank to a 37-year low against the dollar as the chancellor gave his statement. The basic rate of income tax was reduced from 45% to 40% but u-turned under pressure—and he was thrown under the bus by Truss.

Other measures include:

• The threshold people in England and Northern Ireland start paying stamp duty on home purchases will rise to £250,000

• For first-time buyers the threshold will rise to £425,000 and the value of the property they can claim relief will increase from £500,000 to £625,000

• Planned increases in the duty rates for beer, cider, wine and spirits will be axed

• The cap on bankers' bonuses will be lifted

• New investment zones, where business will benefit from tax cuts and planning rules will be relaxed to encourage house building, will be established

• Planned corporation tax increase from 19% to 25% is scrapped.

• Reversed the rise in National Insurance payments 

 

The total cost of the permanent tax cuts announced by the chancellor is estimated at almost £45bn by 2027. The Government borrowing will increase by £72bn as a result. The changes to income tax do not apply in Scotland but cuts to corporation tax and national insurance are UK-wide.

The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the statement amounted to the biggest tax cuts since the 1972 Budget, with the cuts constituting 50% bigger than had been expected.

The government normally releases an independent forecast of how major tax changes will impact the economy, but Mr Kwarteng has opted not to do this, as his statement is not technically a Budget. However, Mr Kwarteng promised the Office for Budget Responsibility would publish a full economic forecast before the end of the year, with a second to follow in the new year.

The huge increase in borrowing comes at a time when inflation - the rate at which prices rise - is at a 40-year high, leading to higher interest payments. The Bank of England raised interest rates on 22 September from 1.75% to 2.25% - the highest level for 14 years - in an attempt to cool soaring prices.

This is the classic “trickle-down” economics, which is really the “trickle (or tickle) up” version. The U.K. cannot afford this, in the midst of rising inflation. A stimulus budget is in a recession not when prices are rising. Yes, there is a need for help to the most vulnerable, with rising cost of living but not for the ultra-rich! This will certainly cause a bad situation to get worse – a tropical storm is now upgraded to a hurricane!

So, what is this new era? More of the old Labour ways of borrow, borrow, borrow (sounds like Bora-Bora, a tropical island in the South Pacific) and spend!

Reference:

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng hails “new era” as he unveils tax cuts, Becky Morton, BBC, 24 September 2022

Trickle-Down Economics: Does it Work?

Trickle-down economic theory states that benefits for the wealthy trickle down to everyone else in the economy. These benefits for the wealthy include tax cuts for dividends, capital gains, high-income earners, and businesses.

Trickle-down economics assumes that company owners, savers, and investors drive growth. This theory promises that they will expand businesses using any extra cash from tax cuts. For example, owners will hire workers and invest in operations; banks will increase lending, and investors will buy more stocks and companies. Then, all of this expansion will trickle down to the working class, where they will drive demand and economic growth by spending their wages. 

Supply-side economics, which is a theory that states that all tax cuts lead to economic growth, is similar to trickle-down economic theory. However, trickle-down economic theory is more specific, saying that targeted tax cuts are more effective than general tax cuts. Trickle-down economics recommends cuts to capital gains, corporations, and savings taxes, but it doesn’t promote tax cuts across the board. Instead, the wealthy receive all of the tax cuts, and the benefits trickle down to everyone else. 

Proponents of supply-side economics and trickle-down economics prove their theories using the Laffer Curve. This is a curve created by Arthur Laffer, who showed the way that tax cuts create a powerful multiplication effect. These tax cuts create sufficient growth to replace the government revenue that was lost from them, resulting in an expanded, prosperous economy that provides a larger tax base. 

Laffer did note that this effect is best when taxes are in the “Prohibitive Range,” which goes from a 100% tax rate to around 50%. When tax rates fall below this range, further cuts won’t be able to stimulate enough economic growth to offset lost revenue. 

During Reagan’s administration, his policies (known as Reaganomics) made it seem that trickle-down economics worked since they helped to end the 1980 recession.

Not only did Reagan cut the top tax rate from 70% for people earning $108,000 or more down to 28% for those earning $18,500 or more. He also cut the corporate tax rate down from 46% to 40%. 

However, trickle-down economics wasn’t the only reason for the recovery. In addition to the tax cuts, Reagan increased the government’s spending by 2.5% a year, and he also tripled the federal debt. It went from $997 billion in 1981 to $2.85 trillion eight years later in 1989. Most of this spending went to defence, supporting Reagan’s efforts to bring down the Soviet Union and end the Cold War.

Because of these other factors, Reagan never tested trickle-down economics in its pure form. It’s very likely that his huge amounts of spending played just as large a role as trickle-down economics in ending the recession.

According to trickle-down economics, Reagan’s and Bush’s tax cuts should have helped those at all income levels. But the opposite result took place: income inequality worsened. Between the years 1979 and 2005, the bottom fifth saw a 6% rise in after-tax household income. While this on its own seems great, it’s important to note what the top fifth experienced an 80% increase in after-tax household income. The income of the top 1% tripled, showing that prosperity was trickling up rather than down.

Trickle-down economics generally doesn’t work for the following reasons:

• Tax cuts for the wealthy don’t often translate to increased consumer spending, rates of employment, and government revenues in the long term.

• Instead, tax cuts for the middle- and lower-income earners drive the economy through the trickle-up phenomenon.

• The increased income for the wealthy that comes from the tax cuts only increases income inequality

So, Liz Truss and her tax cut plans may only result in a “trickle-up” phenomenon than a “trickle-down” expectation. That’s what happens when you don’t have a sense of economic history.

References:

Trickle-down economics: Why it only works in theory, Economics Online, 29 July 2021

Trickle-down economics, Tejvan Pettinger, Economics Help, 22 September 2022

Are Singaporeans Tourists Not Welcome in Malaysia?

Tourism Malaysia has released the figures for foreign visitor arrivals for the first half of 2022. The total number of foreigners that entered our country from January to June was 3,016,113, comprising 2,132,160 tourists and 883,953 excursionists.

During the same period last year, the total number of foreign visitors was 188,922, consisting of just 50,613 tourists and 138,309 excursionists. In contrast, there were 5,965,137 foreign visitors to Malaysia in the first half of 2020, with 4,252,997 being tourists and 1,712,140 excursionists.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

It would take several years for foreign visitor arrivals to return to 2019 levels. As many as 18,137,162 entered Malaysia in the first half of that year, with 13,354,575 tourists spending an average of 7.4 nights and 4,782,587 excursionists departing on the same day of arrival.

For the first half of this year, 60% of all foreign tourists and 75% of all excursionists were Singaporeans. In the four years from 2012 to 2015, more than half of all foreign tourists to Malaysia were Singaporeans, averaging 12.9 million per year. But after that, the percentage dropped to 49.6% in 2016, 47.9% in 2017, 41.1% in 2018 and 38.9% in 2019, averaging 11.6 million per year.

One of the main reasons was congestion at entry points by road that affected not only excursionists but also tourists. Bear in mind that expenditures by Singaporean tourists travelling all over peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak were among the top three on per diem basis, just below nationalities from Saudi Arabia and Brunei, and above those from Australia and China. Together, the 5,381,566 Singaporean tourists contributed RM11.56 billion to our economy in the first half of 2019.

Shouldn’t we make Singaporean tourists feel more welcome? This is especially true for our immigration officers, as they exert a huge impact on the first impression of our country. There are immigration officers on duty who habitually make sarcastic remarks on frequent entry by Singaporeans into Malaysia. Instead of welcoming them, they are bothered by foreigners entering Malaysia.

Over 25% of foreign tourists cited visiting friends and relatives as the main purpose for visiting Malaysia in the first half of 2019. But unlike 71% of domestic tourists that stayed at free accommodation provided by friends and relatives, foreign tourists prefer to stay in licensed hotels or private residences booked online.

To surpass the target of 10 million foreign tourists by the end of this year would require an average of 1.33 million arrivals per month or eight million over six months, as 2,132,160 tourists came in the first half of this year.

Under the National Tourism Policy 2020-2030, there are 22 strategic action plans in place with four on governance capacity. They are for strengthening high-level coordination to monitor the implementation of the policy; enhancing tourism core skills of related government agencies; increasing the capacity and tourism knowhow of local authorities; and embracing innovative governance models to facilitate participatory processes and public-private sector partnerships.

To be more competitive, the Tourism Ministry should reinvigorate the Mesra Malaysia programme. It is the most effective training for public and private sector front liners to become warm and friendly hosts. We have a serious deficiency in manners especially to our neighbours. Next, we could improve entry point experience with reduced waiting times, especially amplified in a holiday season. That may require some initiative and a few ringgits to increase spending (in Malaysia). Why can’t we do that?

Reference:

Make Singaporean Tourists feel more welcome, YS Chan, Letter to the Editor, FMT, 14 September 2022

What If PAS Rules?

The survival of an inclusive multi-racial Malaysia could be under threat if PAS were to rule. The Islamist party is confident that its time has arrived to take charge of the country’s destiny. To climb this peak, PAS will have to capture more political power in every general election, and it probably reckons it can only achieve this by getting more Malay votes. In PAS’ calculations, the other ethnic groups do not count.

PAS election director Sanusi Md Nor has got the party’s long march to Putrajaya all mapped out. This controversial Kedah menteri besar expects PAS to “attack” 80 parliamentary seats and is confident of capturing at least 40 in GE15. The party now has 17 MPs, of which three are ministers and eight deputy ministers. 

 

Source:https://www.bharian.com.my

PAS has already mapped out a 30-year plan to capture federal power. It foresees that by 2050, it will have enough MPs to form the next government, with its candidate as the prime minister.

The coming general election (GE15) will be a crucial test on whether PAS can make further inroads. If the party led by Hadi Awang can seize 40 seats, it would have a big say in the corridors of power. Hadi can drive his Islamic agenda to the forefront of national politics to reshape the landscape of this multi-racial nation. If PAS can continue to improve its electoral outings over the next 30 years, it will inch its way to a simple majority eventually and later, an overwhelming victory.

But PAS alone without UMNO or PN will fare badly. That’s the perception of a UKM political analyst. It (PAS) was in the PH camp for GE14.

The above scenario could only happen if the other Malay parties like UMNO and Berstu fall by the wayside. And the multi-racial parties like PKR, DAP and Amanah are unable to muster Malay votes.

PAS won’t find it easy to secure Malay support, let alone the non-Malay votes. Perhaps, the good news is PAS is performing poorly in the states it governs, its leaders have no clear direction and ministers are incompetent. But if a leader with the calibre of Tok Guru emerges, then the proposition may look possible. Otherwise, this will remain a pipe-dream! We cannot be complacent to this possibility. The consequences of which are seen in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Libya or other Islamic republics –all failed economies.

References:

If PAS rules, the lights of freedom will grow dim, Philip Rodrigues, Aliran, 7 Sept 2022

PAS growing unpopular even among Muslims, says analyst, Shahrul Shahabudin, FMT, 

12 September 2022