The 7 Biggest Wastes of Money

We work hard for money but sometimes we just don’t spend it wisely. We make so many purchases in our lives that we don’t always realize what we are buying. Some purchases do provide cheaper options while others just won’t bring any benefit. Below are our seven picks on things that many people regret spending on:

Smoking

Source: iMoney.my

Cigarettes are expensive, especially in Malaysia. People who smoke a pack a day could spend over RM6,000 a year on buying cigarettes. Cigarettes do not just contain tobacco but over 599 additives. Many of these additives turn into chemicals that cause cancer. They are harmful to both the wallet and the body. So why smoke?

Lottery tickets

Many lottery players purchase tickets each day with the hope of striking big, but games of chance usually prevent you from having more money, not less. You are expected to lose money if you play the lottery and there is no guarantee you will even keep the winnings.

Café coffee (In Asia, bubble tea?)

Starbucks is still expanding although its beverages are rather expensive. People top up their Starbucks cards, spend and wait for rewards. Brewing your own coffee at home in fact is more affordable. Also, it is a calming meditative process that gives you a quiet moment at the beginning of your day.

Perhaps youngsters today spend more on bubble tea instead.

Books

Unless you are a book collector or an avid reader, a library is a better place that saves your money. Libraries are mostly free and come with millions of books, both physical and digital, and other materials for you to borrow. We have many public libraries in KL for you to consider.

The newest gadget

Upgrades, for example of a phone, often don’t make much of a difference. Whenever a new gadget hits the market, the older version takes a plunge in price. The old and new versions are probably very similar, and the most recent model may have kinks that have not been worked out. One could save some money by going with a slightly older product that has nearly identical capabilities.

Going to college

Source: OCBC Bank

Some regret all the money they had to spend going to college. They claim that they spent time and money going to college just to realize they wanted to do something else that didn’t even require a degree.

Gym membership

Your monthly fees are probably subsidizing the cost of someone else’s workouts if you are not using the gym regularly. At first you may feel determined and you spend weeks faithfully going to the gym every other day. Then you have a particularly busy week, and you skip the scheduled date. Then the next week you're not feeling well, so you don't go either. You are now wasting your money!

What else do you regret spending money on? Do comment and let us know!

Reference:

1. ES FEIN, The 20 Biggest Wastes of Money and How to Avoid Them https://wondergressive.com/

2.     Erin McDowell, 24 products people waste too much money on that you should stop buying immediately www.businessinsider.my

3.     How much does your child need for university? OCBC Bank

Can Obsession with Home Ownership Destroy an Economy?

Since WW2 governments across the developed world have been weighed in on home ownership. It’s political, it’s the economy, it’s business and it’s social. It’s political since home ownership gives citizens “roots” to their homeland and equity wealth for home owners. It’s economy because developing new housing schemes/towns involves land, labour, capital and entrepreneurship. Governments also earn property taxes. It’s business because entrepreneurs make 25% or more with those developments. It’s social because it reduces income/wealth inequality.

So what is the problem?

In the U.S., 70 years of appreciation of housing values with near stagnant real wage growth (except for the ultra-rich) has caused a nationwide crisis of affordability and widened income and racial inequality.

Housing, like student loans and health insurance, has fallen into a free market trap. There’s an inelastic demand - everyone needs housing, an education and to be healthy - and people will pay almost anything to acquire these basic needs. In 1950, the median home price was 2.2 times the average yearly income. In 2013, a few years after the worst housing market crash in a century, median home prices had already risen to 3.7 times the average income. Largely, this inflexible cost has been paid for with greater private debt. Between 1949 and 2018, mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP grew from 15% to 80%.

As with higher education and preventive medicine, those with the earliest headstart and least barriers to entry reaped the greatest rewards. While homeownership rates among white Americans have increased from 50% to 70% since 1950, African American homeownership has only risen from 30% to 40%. As a result, the median white American family’s net worth is now 12 times that of the median African American family, with two-thirds of that net worth attributable to home equity. And the racial wealth gap is growing: by 2053, African Americans will see their median household wealth fall to zero, just from being on the wrong end of housing appreciation.

Where do we go from here?

Improving renter protections, expanding social housing and more tightly regulating the mortgage market would slow down housing appreciation. Cutting down on short-term rentals and vacation homes also has a dramatic impact on housing affordability. In a recent study, MIT, UCLA, and USC found that for every 10% growth in Airbnb listings, a zip code’s average rent increased by 0.4%.

Another solution would be to limit foreign investment and speculation. When Vancouver passed a 15% tax on all sales to foreign home buyers, the price of single-family property dropped 20% before rebounding, giving housing appreciation a short-term respite.

A more dramatic intervention would be to reverse the trend of corporations getting into the housing market and reintroduce public land ownership. From 2013 to 2015, corporations purchased almost $2 trillion worth of land and buildings in the world’s top 100 cities. Middle and lower-class families aren’t able to compete with corporate property investors, but local governments and community organizations could use collective buying power to play an active role in repurchasing large quantities of housing stock.

The Dutch constitution has a provision for providing adequate housing to its residents. As a result, the Netherlands currently has the highest share of social housing in the EU, accounting for about 32% of the total housing supply and 75% of the rental market. As the largest housing supplier, the Dutch public housing system is well-positioned to set market rates and address the country's growing housing needs. It is an interesting example of a functioning large-scale social housing system in a developed country.

What about Malaysia?

There are several agencies supposed to increase supply of affordable homes. But the outcome has been miserable. The new PN government could do well to increase appreciably number of affordable homes and implement rent-to-own schemes for the B40 and M40. Private developers are more inclined to homes costing RM0.5m and above. And with Covid-19, is this a “deadpan” market?

Reference:

1.     The cost of housing is tearing our society apart, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2019

2.     How an obsession with home ownership can ruin the economy, The Economist, 22 Jan 2019

3.     Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems, The Economist, 16 Jan 2020

A Crude Awakening – The Oil Price Slump!

The prospect of cheaper petrol at a time when the world is largely under lockdown is no silver lining to the Covid-19 pandemic. Energy analysts believe there is little upside to this unprecedented plunge in oil prices.

Michael Moebs, CEO of Moebs Services believes plummeting oil price could drive interest rates down even further. That is a prospect with negative implications for banks and may destabilise financial markets already shaken by Covid-19. The hangover from the oil crash could linger well into 2021.

Jobs in energy will be the first domino to fall, especially for smaller producers. The spill over will be on other businesses that service them.

Employment in the oil industry will be under pressure until prices go above USD40 a barrel. And that is not seen in the foreseeable future. On a net basis it is atrocious for the U.S. economy.

But why are oil prices crashing?

Saudi Arabia launched a price war because of Russian intransigence on production cuts. Russia sees any production cuts will be filled by American shale oil producers. Therefore, cuts are deemed futile unless they too are involved. America is the number one producer in the world with 13 million barrels a day. (Malaysia only produces 650,000-700,000 barrels a day)

What is the Blink Price?

Price war is no recipe for stability. All major oil producers will lose money even if they regain market share.

Russia’s budget is based on average price of USD40 a barrel. The Gulf countries produce oil at USD2-6 a barrel. But because of budgetary requirements they need USD70 or higher a barrel (to balance their budgets).

What’s the impact on consumers?

Importing nations like China, India and Germany get much relief from falling energy bills.

Consumers benefit from lower petrol prices at the pump. But reduction in prices is outweighed by coronavirus and the economic slowdown.

So, What’s the Prognosis?

 

Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) global petroleum and liquid fuel consumption averaged at 94.4 million barrels per day, in the 1^st quarter of 2020. That’s a decline of 5.6 million barrels from the same period in 2019.

EIA expects petroleum demand will decrease by 5.2 million barrels per day from an average of 100. 7 million barrels per day in 2019. For 2021, demand is anticipated to increase by 6.4 million barrels per day. Demand growth in 2020 is marked by disruptions in economic activity and reduced travel globally. Hopefully a U-shaped recovery by 2021 will restore the demand-supply balance.

References

1.     Martha C. White, CNBC News, April 22, 2020.

2.     John Defterios, CNN Business, March 9, 2020 (Why Oil Prices are Crashing and What it Means).

3.     U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook April 7,2020.

Are Default Rates Likely to Rise Globally?

Moody’s Investors Service expects global default rate to rise to 10.6% by end-2020 and increase further to 11.3% by end March 2021. The default rate in March 2020 was 3.5%.

With Covid-19, lockdowns are common in all major economies. Attendant effect is an induced recession which may only see its end by late 4^th quarter of 2020. In addition, oil prices have plummeted because of the Saudi-Russian production disagreement and market weakness owing to the impending global contraction of demand. Financial markets have also crashed due to the pandemic, unemployment, earnings destruction and bankruptcies.

Default rates are anticipated to be highest in the hotel, gaming, leisure, aviation and oil and gas sectors. The table below is for the U.S.

Source: Moody’s Investors Services

Companies that have low ratings and/or are highly leveraged are the most vulnerable. The speculative grade bonds are anticipated to have default rates of 7.7% to 18.4%.

In more recent weeks stock markets have plunged amid panic selling by investors. They have become more risk averse.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, views companies with vulnerable balance sheets – little cash but high maturing debt – are going to find it difficult to refinance, giving rise to higher credit defaults. Businesses in tourism, airlines, hotels and cruise lines are unable to generate income and are most vulnerable.

It is anticipated that almost USD840 billion of triple B bonds are due this year and about USD270 billion of them trade below 90 cents to the dollar. Many companies are already locked out of refinancing or securing new debt.

Going forward, a lot depends on duration of the crisis. Support will be required from central banks and governments to stem the downward spiral. Malaysia has tested ability in putting in place mechanisms for defaults of this nature. Danajamin could play a significant role in enhancing credit support for those companies fundamentally strong but cash flow deficient. Danaharta 2.0 is a good step forward to acquire those NPLs that need more time to be nursed back or divested in a rising market. The CDRC under the auspices of Bank Negara may need reactivation for large companies to work-out their issues. In sum, Malaysia will be able to withstand the headwinds in this crisis, if professionals and technocrats are engaged.

Reference:

1.     Moody’s Default rates to rise due to recessions in economies, Focus Malaysia, 13 April 2020

2.     Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Covid-19, Economic Crisis Will Bring a Tidal Wave of Company Defaults in 2020 and 2021, Forbes, 4 April 2020

3.     Simmons+Simmons, Covid-19 Impact on the global economy and increase in debt defaults, 31 March 2020

Malaysia Covid-19 Forecast Using Generalized Logistic Function (Updated 23-Apr-2020)

In a previous article (Read more here), a Simple Logistic Function (SLF) was chosen to model the Covid-19 growth trend in Malaysia for the 1^st phase of the Movement Control Order (MCO).  During that said period, the SLF model appeared to be adequate as the goodness-of-fit of the curve was reasonable.  However, at the end of the 2^nd phase of MCO (14-Apr-2020), the SLF model was no longer adequate to explain the development of Covid-19 in Malaysia.

A more robust model, Generalised Logistic Function (GLF) was now needed (Read more here), as suggested by some international research papers (Read more here).  There are a couple of reasons why the SLF model is inadequate to predict the growth of the Covid-19.  Firstly, the Covid-19 development was not in a closed-system.  SLF is commonly used in studying the growth of bacteria in a laboratory.  In the Covid-19 case, although MCO was implemented, it is not a true closed-system as there were leakages that impacted the growth pattern. This may include test capacity, asymptomatic patients, previous undisclosed linked clusters, and MCO violations.  Secondly, the previous model might appear good due to insufficient data points.  As time passed, more data points were available to show the actual trend of the development.

The GLF, in mathematical form, is 

The constants A, K, C, Q, B and v are determined by minimizing the sum of square of the 21-Days rate of change between the actual cumulative cases and the GLF.  Graph 1 is the cumulative of positive cases, Graph 2 is the 21-Day rate of change, and Graph 3 is the daily new cases trend.

Based on the fitted GLF, the predicted median total cases are expected to be around 6400 by the middle of June 2020, worst case 6800, and best case 6100.  This number is derived purely from a quantitative approach.  It does not factor in traffic movements (flight routes re opened), new vaccine development and other qualitative measures.  Nevertheless, the number could be reduced further if we abide by the MCO, and practice good social distancing.  As at 23-Apr-2020, the daily new cases trend is moving towards the best- case scenario. That simply means by the end of Phase 3 MCO, the daily new cases would go below 30 as depicted in Graph 3. Hopefully, then we can restart the economy.

So please Stay@Home for now! 

  

 

Education During A Pandemic: How Countries Address The Challenges?

Source: Bianca Bagnarelli

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced many states, provinces and even countries to lockdown (or partially lockdown). This has caused many educational institutions to be closed, since the beginning of this year. According to UNESCO, over 80% of the world’s student population in 138 countries, are affected. Some people may see this as an opportunity for countries or institutions to further utilize today’s technology and improve their e-learning system. But in fact, closures are placing unprecedented challenges on governments, teachers, students and parents to ensure learning continuity.

The first issue is the inequality in education. The digital divide is an issue in Malaysia’s education system - the divide between the urban and rural, as well as by socio-economic status. Students from under-privileged backgrounds tend to have less access to online materials. Not every student has a personal computer in their homes. Many are still relying on the schools’ computer labs. There are also families with kids having only one PC in their home. The kids then need to share with other siblings and make sure their timetables will not clash with each other.

Some schools also do not have a mature e-Learning platform. Some are still on the setting up stage while others just do not have any! Lecturers or teachers may not be well prepared for digital platforms. Some may need time to be familiar with the systems. Since people are not allowed to travel, research including surveys, interviews or experiments, have slowed down as well.

How are countries addressing these challenges?

In almost all countries, teachers and school administrators are encouraged to use applications to support communication with learners and parents as well as deliver live lessons or record massive open online courses (MOOC). Learning content is also delivered through TV and other media. For example, in Greece, the Government has designed new TV programmes providing Greek language lessons, natural sciences, mathematics, history, and others for their primary school children.

China is providing computers to students from low-income families and offering mobile data packages and telecommunication subsidies for students. In France, efforts are being made to lend devices and provide printed assignments to the 5% of learners who do not have access to the internet or computers. In Washington State, United States, schools are not encouraged to provide online learning services unless equitable access is ensured. In Portugal, the government has a partnership with the post office services to deliver working sheets to be done at home.

Several countries have rescheduled examinations and assessments for all levels of schooling, including universities. Some also provide online examinations. When exam dates cannot be changed, special arrangements (e.g., limited number of students who can take the exam at one time) have been introduced to ensure the safety of the exam-takers (e.g., in Japan and Thailand).

Education must continue and more needs to be done by every party as nobody knows how long this pandemic will last. On 25 March 2020, YTL Foundation, in collaboration with YTL Communications and FrogAsia, launched its Learn from Home Initiative to enable online learning from home. Under this Initiative, parents can register for free Yes 4G SIM cards with 40GB of data and have access to learning resources.

 PT3, SPM and STPM exams have been postponed following the extension of the MCO. Other public (e.g. UPSR) and private (e.g. university finals) exams are to be rescheduled as well.

MoE and schools (including higher learning institutions) should work together and come out with a complete plan for this entire academic year. Even after MCO has ended, online classes (or better learning methods) are still preferable with social distancing becoming necessary. The Government should support schools in developing their online platforms and provide appropriate training to teachers. Meanwhile, extending the academic year or shortening school year-end holidays could be a solution.

Covid-19 may upset our 2020 routine but on the bright side, this is a good opportunity to reshape our education system and perhaps speed up the technological change!

Reference:

1.     COVID-19 Educational Disruption and Response, UNESCO

2.     Florin Zubașcu, Universities in lockdown: the good, the bad and the ugly of online teaching, https://sciencebusiness.net/

3.     How are countries addressing the Covid-19 challenges in education? A snapshot of policy measures, 24 Mar 2020, GEM Report

4.     MoE urged to extend academic year, 2 Apr 2020, The Malaysian Reserve

Malaysia’s GDP to Soar by 9% in 2021?

Getty Image

After all the “gloom and doom” of last eight weeks or so, we have some great news! The International Monetary Fund has projected Malaysia’s real GDP growth to be 9% in 2021.

This is the fastest among the Asean-5 countries, with a combined GDP growth of 7.8% for 2021. Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam are expected to expand by 8.2%, 6.1%, 7.6% and 7%, respectively.

IMF anticipates Malaysia’s economy will contract by 1.7% in 2020. IMF’s 2021 projection for Malaysia is much higher than Fitch Ratings growth forecast of 5.8%.

Global growth is expected to rebound to 5.8% in 2021. This is reflecting normalisation of economic activity from very low levels. Global growth will be -3% in 2020, largely due to Covid-19, the lockdowns, trade wars and oil price collapse. However, the rebound in 2021 is predicated on the pandemic fading in the second half of 2020, and normalisation of economic activities. Again, policy actions taken by governments to prevent bankruptcies, job losses and system-wide financial strains must bear fruit.

There is extreme uncertainty on the strength of the recovery, hence caution may dampen aggregate demand. The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) expects Malaysia’s economy to spring back to 4.5% in 2021. This is assuming macro policies and fiscal stimulus have the desired effect. China’s growth will be critical for Malaysia, as China is Malaysia’s largest trading partner. Anticipation is that China will grow at 1.2% in 2020 and rebound strongly to 9.2% in 2021. This is IMF’s latest forecast (April 2020).

About 98.7% of China’s manufacturing enterprises have reportedly resumed work. The purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector rose to 52 in March from 35.7 in February.

The U.S., with the highest injection in the world, is projected to contract by 5.9% in 2020 but will bounce back to 4.5% growth in 2021 (IMF).

There are others who forecast Malaysia’s growth at 4-5% for 2021. Whether it is 9% or 4.5% for 2021, the prognosis gives us hope. And hopefully, this pandemic will be contained, and no new ones occur.

Reference:

1.     IMF: After 2020 contraction, Malaysia GDP to soar by 9pct in 2021, New Straits Times, 16 April 2020

2.     Malaysia’s 2020 GDP Growth to sink to 3.7% amid Covid-19, The Malaysian Reserve, 16 April 2020

3.     Fitch retains long-term rating, GDP to grow 5.8% in 2021, The Star, 10 April 2020

Unemployment Rate Surges in the U.S.

Source: Shutterstock

The U.S. now has 22 million people unemployed. This wipes out all the gains over a decade. The level of job loss has not been seen since the Great Depression. Layoffs are mounting in nearly every sector as businesses have been forced to close. Manufacturing production crashed in March, the most since 1946 and new construction showed the biggest decline in nearly 40 years.

The U.S. economists say the U.S. unemployment rate is over 20%. Every state is impacted. In Michigan, 1 million workers or 21% of the work force are out of work. In Pennsylvania, it is 1 in 5 are unemployed, Ohio has 15% unemployed and Hawaii, the worst hit, is now nearly 22%.

The crushing numbers intensify Trump’s push to reopen the economy. Even if it reopened, people are fearful to venture out or go to work, unless there is widespread testing or a vaccine is available. In addition, many Americans have slashed their spending, lowering significantly aggregate domestic demand.

The 22 million jobless figure is probably an understatement as gig workers and temporary employees have not been accounted for.

What about Malaysia?

With the MCO, many businesses cannot operate hence there is retrenchment of workers in several sectors. The highest unemployment rate in Malaysia was 4.5% in 1999, during the Asian Financial Crisis.

MIER suggests 2.4 million Malaysians will lose their jobs, spiking the rate to 15% of work force. Dr Yeah Kim Leng of Sunway University sees the rate rise to 6%. The IMF forecast is 4.9% for 2020, possibly tapering off by 4Q20. BNM, however views the rate to go up to only 4% in 2020, from 3.2% in January 2020.

Whatever the rate, one thing is clear there will be many young Malaysians out of work. The consequences of which are severe on consumption and investment, not counting the social cost. And those with savings, will remain cautious in this environment.

It is the SMEs that provide jobs. Many have shuttered (or will be shuttering) their operations or services. They employ 40% of the workforce. It is here that the Government has to work closely with the associations, guilds or even clans to see how best to stem the downward spiral. Weekly feedback sessions or forums may assist in formulating measures to help the SMEs from closing shop.

Reference:

1.     Heather Long, Stimulus checks and other coronavirus relief hindered by dated technology and rocky government rollout, Washington Post, 17 April 2020

2.     Ranjit Singh, Economists see sharp spike in unemployment due to Covid-19, Focus Malaysia, 15 April 2020