Covid-19: To Peak at 3,700 by Mid May for Malaysia?

On 25 Mar 2020, JPMorgan forecasted that Malaysia’s Covid-19 will likely peak by the middle of April, at around 6300 cases (Read more here).  After JPMorgan’s report was released, Malaysia’s Director General of Health, Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah pleaded with fellow Malaysians to prove JPMorgan’s forecast wrong by abiding to Movement Control Order (MCO) (Read more here). 

Let’s take a look at the latest data to check whether Malaysians are doing well in proving the forecast to be wrong.  As at 31 Mar 2020, the last day of first phase MCO (18 Mar – 31 Mar), the cumulative cases of Covid-19 was 2766.  In order to study whether the rate of change is slowing down, the first derivative of the cumulative case was plotted. 

Graph 1 is the rate of change of the cumulative cases in 1-Day, 7-Days, 14-Days and 21-Days.  The 1-Day curve is very erratic thus it is difficult to judge whether the rate is slowing down.  The 7-Day curve is less erratic and is curving down.  Both 14-Days and 21-Days curves are still on the rise at a slightly slower pace.  What does this imply?  It means that the Covid-19 spreading rate is slowing down. Once the 14-Days and 21-Days start to curve downwards, the situation can be interpreted as under control.

Next, could we do some forecast based on the data?  Probably.  The Covid-19 cumulative cases and rate of change could be modeled using logistic function and logistic distribution (Read more here).  Graph 2 shows the actual cumulative cases and the best fitted logistic function while Graph 3 shows the actual 21-Days rate of change and logistic distribution 21-days date of change.

The coefficients of the logistic function were determined by maximizing the goodness-of-fit R² of the Logistic function 21-Days rate of change curve.  In this case, R² is 0.998.  Based on the forecasted model, the Covid-19 will peak at 3700 cases around mid-of May 2020. 

Looks like we are all doing a good job by flattening the curve! Any success in fighting this Covid-19 pandemic is also due to the excellent people on the frontline led by an able DG of MoH. Thanks from all of us to all of you!!

References:

1.     https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/03/25/jp-morgan-covid-19--likely-to-peak-next-month-in-malaysia

2.     https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/03/28/health-d-g-malaysians-can-prove-jpmorgan-and-mier-wrong-if-they-abide-by-mc/1851181

3.     https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.05681.pdf