What is the Thucydides Trap?

 

The Thucydides Trap is a political theory stating that when an emerging power threatens to displace an established ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes armed conflict between them highly probable.  This was what Xi Xin Ping told Donald Trump in Beijing recently. 

The concept is based on a famous observation by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides regarding the Peloponnesian War. He noted: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." 

The term was popularised by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison to analyse great power dynamics.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap

The Dynamic: The anxiety and paranoia felt by the ruling power (e.g. Sparta) as the rising power (e.g. Athens) gains economic and military strength often leads to strategic miscalculations and a catastrophic conflict. 

Primary Example: It is most frequently used to describe modern U.S. – China relations, where China’s rapid ascent is viewed by many as threatening longstanding American global hegemony. 

While Allison’s historical analysis showed that 12 out of 16 past power transitions ended in war, he and other scholars emphasise that conflict is no inevitable. Both emerging and established powers can consciously manage their rivalry through diplomacy, compromise, and establishing new structural rules to coexist peacefully. 

The importance of recognising it is that markets, economies are all impacted. The current trade issues with the U.S. is part of this political theory. A declining power is flailing about just to remain dominant. Hence, the war on Iran and the Straits of Hormuz. What can we do? Large (or even small) companies may need to work around the games of both superpowers. That is why Tim Cook, Jensen Huang and Elon Musk went to China with Trump. They may have not secured anything of value but paid “homage” to ensure their businesses could survive the near future. For ASEAN, we are closely aligned with China and entertain U.S. investments which has no borders. Malaysia must continue to work on its AI, semiconductors and data centres to ensure growth and provide employment. Are we “future proof” whichever way the Thucydides Trap falls? You can answer that!