Thursday 30 November 2023

Is Food Security a Joke?

 Price of vegetables went up by 160 percent in January 2023. Yet in October, over 130 hardworking farmers at Kanthan, north of Ipoh, Perak, who produce tonnes of vegetables, corn and fruits were evicted. Another 30 acres of farmland in Kanthan, Ipoh was destroyed in October 2023.

Even more ironic, Deputy Prime Minister announced in May that the government is identifying land for food production through Felcra. We have a net import of RM70-75 billion annually  of food.

When chicken prices were soaring last year, due to the high cost of imported corn feed, suddenly there was talk of planting more corn.


Source: https://themalaysianreserve.com

Some of the farmland is being targeted for property development. Perhaps it's time to rethink our obsession with landed houses.

Would the farmers have been allowed to stay if they were of a different race? Most likely not! It is probable that this is a commercial transaction.

When 19.4ha of farmland near Taman Chepor Sentosa was transferred from the Perak State Development Corporation (PKNP) to a private company, the state sold it at a 65 percent discount to market prices.

One is also surprised by the conspicuous silence from reformasi-preaching PKR and the so-called socialist-rooted DAP in the state government. They should have at least convinced the Menteri Besar to work on a win-win solution on this issue.

So, is it about greed or cronyism?


References:

Comment: Is food security a joke in Perak? Andrew Sia, Malaysiakini, 28 October 2023

Food security vital for nation’s wellbeing, Ronald Benjamin, Malaysiakini, 26 Octobe


Wednesday 29 November 2023

PM’s First Anniversary: Underperforming or Unrealistic Expectations?

 Now just one year after Anwar Ibrahim took over as Prime Minister, expectations have fallen.

Should we be thankful that this “unity government” has not collapsed? Yes, we are relatively stable, with no serious unrest on the streets. We have RM1.5tn federal government debt but we are not bankrupt. Food prices have crept up, but we have no hyperinflation. The economy seems steady, but the ringgit has weakened considerably.

The PM’s performance rating plunged from 68% last December to 50% in October, according to the Merdeka Center. The government’s approval rating has also fallen from 54% last December to 48% in October. About 60% feel the country is going the wrong way, with 56% citing economic issues.

Why are so many people feeling financially squeezed? One clue is the labour share of national income has dropped from 37.4% in 2020 to 32.4% in 2022. Compare this with the labour share of over 40% or even 50% in many developed nations. What this means is that many workers in Malaysia are simply not getting a fair share of the national income. Just look the GLCs, their top executives are paid in the millions while the ordinary folks earn a pittance. Shareholders, namely the Government also gets huge dividends. An example is Petronas!

One way out to ease the plight of many households is by introducing a universal pension scheme for those without pensions. That’s financed by new taxes!

The Anwar administration has to improve our hospitals – it must raise government spending on the public healthcare system from about 2% of GDP to 4-5%. Reduce the queues and long waiting times at these hospitals. Hire more specialists and doctors to spread out the workload. The other areas include:

Road re-surfacing and repairs from KK to KL;

Small infrastructure projects; and

Provide greater support to farmers and fishermen

For this to happen, the government has to widen its revenue base and its tax collection to strengthen the social security net. It could save some RM20-30bn a year by “working on” corruption, ‘leaks’ and rent-seeking. More funds could be raised by imposing excess profit tax on sectors like banking or energy. What about Tobin like tax on foreign exchange transactions?

The government has to reform the education system to raise the quality of national schools. It must know by now the reasons why ethnic minorities have moved to private or vernacular schools. 

The good news is that there is no more mandatory death penalty. Several reforms appear also to be underway, but the pace could be better:

Separation of the public prosecutor’s role from the attorney general

A political funding act to be passed by Parliament


Progress has been made with an Independent Police Conduct Commission, but this lacks effective bite. The government must look at what the 2004 Royal Commission on the police really intended.

The unfulfilled promises include:

The vetting of key public appointments process by a special parliamentary committee – for the chief of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission, election commissioners, public prosecutor, etc

The introduction of a parliamentary services act

The introduction of a government procurement act

The devolution of powers

A 10-year term limit for the prime minister and chief ministers

A fixed-parliamentary term

A review to correct the severe malapportionment of constituencies


Then there are a couple of key pledges that have been broken:

Equal constituency funds for all MPs

Repeal of repressive laws such as the Sedition Act, Sosma, Section 233 of the Communications and Multimedia Act

Cost of living is in outer space at the moment because we have failed to tackle imported inflation and exchange rates.


The evictions of the Kanthan farmers in Perak and the reclamation in Penang that will degrade fishing waters are serious disappointments. We are simply not doing enough to boost the country’s food security. Use AI or technology to improve output.

More needs to be done on public transportation. Prasarana is an inefficient, black-hole for Government finances. It doesn’t take a genius to break this monolith.

And the PM is keen on foreign issues – from Palestine, Hamas to Turkey. Instead of gallivanting overseas for investments, please get the MITI Minister to work harder.

The pace of reforms has been too slow for many. Granted, it is only the first year and the PM has to balance the interests of his multi-coalition government. Bersih has given the government a score of just 22% in fulfilling pre-election promises.

Work on the People’s Agenda, which over 50 civil society groups have endorsed instead of pandering to PAS and Bersatu. Have some courage and spine to stand-up for the right things instead of trying to look good to the audience you are addressing. 


Source: https://twitter.com

Reference:

Anwar’s first anniversary as PM: Fix the economy and hasten reforms, Anil Netto, Aliran, 24 November 2023





Tuesday 28 November 2023

Is the Chip Sector Moving from Crisis to Recovery?

According to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International Association’s (SEMI) Market Outlook, integrated circuits (IC) sales for the first half of 2023 decreased 25% year-on-year (y-o-y) as memory sales plummeted more than 50%.

Capital expenditure for semiconductor fell 5% y-o-y in the second quarter of this year and is expected to further tumble 15% y-o-y in the third quarter of 2023. However, not all hope is lost for the industry, as 2024 is the year experts and industry players believe will make a comeback. The semiconductor market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2023 to reach US$1 trillion by 2030, according to SEMI.

The research firm, Gartner, has projected the semiconductor industry will grow by 17% next year after a decline of 11% in 2023, while until 2026, the compound annual growth rate is estimated to be 13%.


Despite global semiconductor shipment revenue projected to be down 12% to 13% in 2023, Malaysia is expected to be down by only 2%.

Exports in 1972 was RM230mil, with employment at around 10,000 people. In 2022, 50 years later, exports reached almost RM600bil. Malaysia’s external trade surplus amounted to RM255bil, of which RM199bil came from our E&E sector in 2022. This is 78% of the total surplus. In 2022, the E&E sector contributed 38% of the country’s total exports, also becoming the largest sector to do this. The E&E industry hires more than 600,000 people. 

So, we need to be conscious of its tremendous impact, attract more R&D centres into Malaysia, equip our people and work on a plan to move our semiconductor industry to a higher plane. Others too are keen to develop this sector for the betterment of their economies.


Reference:

Chip sector – moving from crisis to recovery, Lydia Nathan, The Star, 11 November 2023



Monday 27 November 2023

Why Revive PLKN?

PLKN or Program Latihan Khidmat Negara was first introduced in December 2003.  The programme was for 3 months. Unlike other countries such as South Korea or Singapore, the objective of PLKN was not for national defence but for the following objectives:

Develop a young generation who are patriotic and love their country

Enhance unity among the multi-racial communities in Malaysia

Instil a spirit of caring and volunteerism among society

Produce an active, intelligent and confident generation

Develop positive characteristics among the younger generation through good values



Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org



From the start, PLKN encountered several problems ranging from logistical issues to racial polarization. So why do we bring back PLKN? The key issues with PLKN were:

1. 23 deaths since PLKN started

Since its inception, PLKN has recorded 23 deaths in total. Of course, mistakes happen but bear in mind, it took Singapore 40 years to get 23 deaths (1968 - 2008). Malaysia managed to accomplish that in half the time! 

Not to mention, the rapes, sexual assaults, and brawls that have happened in PLKN camps.

2. Failed to instil love for country

According to the National Patriots Association (Patriots), the programme has failed to instil patriotism among PLKN recruits. The veterans' group attributes this to the inexperienced personnel who handle the PLKN programme. According to Patriots, the PLKN programme isn't done by “people who love the country but by people who only have love for money.”

If you go on forums such as Reddit, you can find confessions from former PLKN recruits. According to one former recruit, they felt patriotic for 2-3 months after PLKN but that effect soon wore off. The only moment when the teachings got serious was during "patriotism" classes; it included preaching about how we should boycott certain Western countries to promote the local economy (Is this how we instil patriotism among our youths? By asking them to boycott certain Western countries?). According to some, PLKN was a huge waste of time. 

3. Waste of financial resources

The government spent RM8.43 billion over the 12 years PLKN was implemented. The bulk of the expenses (43%) was on camp rent excluding training curriculums. Retired Brigadier-General Arshad Raji has insisted that the previous PLKN incarnation was a waste of money and called for the Government to study in-depth the abolished PLKN as there were a lot of weaknesses. Currently, the proposal is for the age group 16-35 to attend for 45 days at a cost of about RM100m a year.

4. Lack of financial transparency

Financial transparency is another issue. Since its inception, critics have been vocal about the financial transparency of the millions awarded to the program and whether contracts were properly awarded. Trainees have even walked out and complained that they were not being compensated properly as promised by Institut Kepimpinan Wawasan (Vision Leadership Institute). 

The latest statement is the PLKN program is still being studied and its implementation is in 2025 at the earliest. Most if not all the objectives of PLKN can be achieved through the education system. No need for 3 months summer boot camp or a 45-day jaunt. 

We could spend the allocated RM100m for schools to conduct the PLKN program in their extra-curricular activities. Don’t you think?

References:

Opinion: PLKN was a failure. So why revive it? Aaron T, Newswav, 15 November 2023

PLKN 3.0 – is it really thought out? Danny Liew, Newswav, 8 November 2023

Friday 24 November 2023

Retirement at 57?

Mass affluent Malaysians need an average retirement savings of RM3.9 million to retire comfortably, based on recent findings from the HSBC quality of life report.

The survey is based on mass affluent Malaysians — those with investable assets of between US$100,000 to US$2 million (RM400,000 to RM9 million) — in a comparison of nine markets including Singapore, China, Hong Kong, India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the UK, the US and Mexico. About 38 per cent of those surveyed were Boomers (age 55-59), while 32 per cent were Gen X (age 40-54), followed by Millennials (age 25-39) at 30 per cent.

About 57% of mass affluent Malaysians surveyed said that they are concerned about retirement, with the top concern being decline in physical health, followed by higher healthcare costs and inflation eating into the value of their retirement savings.

The country’s aspired retirement age was also the lowest among the nine markets surveyed, with the UK having the highest aspired retirement age of 62 years, four years shy of the UK state pension retirement age of 66 years.

Malaysia's mass affluent individuals surveyed were also divided on plans to work after retirement, with 44% saying they will work after retirement, another 44% saying they will not, and the remaining 12% are undecided at this point.

The respondents said that they would need an average retirement savings of around RM3.9 million, which was lower than Hong Kong (RM5.2 million) and Singapore (RM4.4 million), but higher than the UK (RM3.6 million) and the UAE (RM3.3 million). In addition, millennial respondents (age 25-39 years) in Malaysia said they need an average of RM4.86 million to retire comfortably. Meanwhile, Gen X respondents (age 40-54 years) said they need RM4.53 million, and Boomer respondents (age 55-69 years) said they need RM2.57 million.

Other key findings from the report include that out of 100, respondents in Malaysia scored 77 on the overall quality of life index which was higher than the overall score across nine markets of 75, but lower compared to UAE and India with both at 80.

The survey also found that the financially fit are 4.3 times as likely to score above average on the mental wellness scale, while those scoring above average on mental wellness are 1.9 times as likely to be financially fit than those scoring low on mental wellness.

So, are you ready to retire? If you are, think twice – either you engage in a new area of interest, learn a new language or musical instrument or extend your present job for a further 5 years at least. If not, you may be a good candidate for dementia!


References:

HSBC survey shows Malaysia’s mass affluent aim to stop working by age 57, need RM3.9 mil for comfortable retirement, Anis Hazim, theedgemalaysia.com, 7 November 2023

Survey: More than half of 200 “mass affluent” Malaysians are concerned about retirement, Nursyazwani Jamil, NST, 6 November 2023



Thursday 23 November 2023

Malaysia’s MM2H is an Abject Failure!

According to a recent report by property consultancy Knight Frank, the entry point to the 1 per cent club of the richest people in Malaysia was US$485,000 in net wealth in 2022. Compare this with US$12.4 million for Monaco, which has the world’s densest population of super-rich individuals, Switzerland at US$6.6 million or Singapore’s richest at US$3.5 million.

While the Knight Frank report did not provide the number of individuals in Malaysia who met the minimum US$485,000 needed to be among the country’s richest 1 per cent, it did state that the country had 85,126 high net worth individuals (net worth of at least US$1 million) in 2022. And 721 ultra rich individuals with more than US$30 million net worth each.


These figures indicate that there were at least 85,847 individuals in Malaysia’s top 1 per cent club last year. Projections from Knight Frank's Wealth Sizing Model suggest this number will nearly double to 165,883 by 2027 (164,839 high net worth individuals and 1,044 ultra high net worth individuals).

Malaysia’s pursuit of wealthy investors is part of a larger global race among nations to secure foreign capital and talent. In 2022, global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows reached US$1.3 trillion. For Malaysia specifically, FDI accounted for 61.7 per cent of total approved investments in the country in 2022, or RM163.3 billion (US$34.8 billion).

The infusion of wealth and capital from rich investors can have a transformative impact on Malaysia's economy. These investors bring not only financial resources but also expertise, networks and connections that can stimulate local industries.

One of the key strategies Malaysia has implemented to attract overseas retirees and wealthy investors is the Malaysia My Second Home programme (MM2H). Launched in 2002, the programme grants eligible participants a multiple-entry social visit pass, allowing them to stay in Malaysia for up to 10 years, with the option of renewal. Between 2002 and 2019, close to 50,000 foreigners were approved under the MM2H programme. In a surprising move, however, the government in 2021 introduced more demanding requirements, reducing uptake for the scheme. This included a quadrupling of the minimum monthly income to RM40,000 and increasing the required period for physical presence to 90 days in a year. More onerous was the new bank deposit requirement of RM1 million, up from the previous amount of RM150,000 to RM300,000, and that of liquid assets of RM1.5 million (up from RM350,000 to RM500,000 previously).

It was almost as if the revised MM2H wanted to dissuade potential applicants since other countries in the region had less stringent thresholds. Since the regulations were tightened in 2021, there have been a 90 per cent drop in the number of applicants.

A second programme to attract wealthy foreigners is the Premium Visa Programme (PVIP). This programme is not by any stretch of imagination less demanding in its requirements than that for MM2H, with applicants having to open a local fixed deposit account of about RM1 million.

PVIP differs from MM2H in that it allows applicants to conduct business and seek employment; it does not require a minimum period of stay in Malaysia and waives the need to show proof of liquid assets.

There have been calls from various quarters for the MM2H regulations to be eased, with the Johor Sultan urging the government on multiple occasions to revise the conditions. In April 2023, the government confirmed that it would review the criteria for the programme.

As with its FDI policy, which aims to attract technologically sophisticated investments and top end talent, the second home policy is priced out of the reach of ordinary folks. Why? Because the government is only interested in the top segment of the expatriate market. The government's primary objective is not promoting diversity but harnessing economic benefits.

It is only for those with the means who can create the market for exclusive commodities, luxury condominiums and high-end hospitals that resemble hotels.

There are different segments of foreigners who would want to make Malaysia their second home, including retirees, individuals seeking holiday homes, property investors and those seeking refuge from challenging conditions in their home countries. In the past, Malaysia may have courted retired Japanese citizens, but more recently, the focus has shifted to the Chinese for several reasons. 

The revised MM2H is seen as a failure. And the Government is not moving or moving at a snail pace to further ease it. We can understand if PN is in power but not so with this Madani government!


Reference:

Commentary: What will it take for Malaysia to woo wealthy investors? Dr Shankaran Nambiar, www.channelnewsasia.com, 24 September 2023




Wednesday 22 November 2023

Malaysia Foreign Inflows/Outflows up to October 2023

Malaysia reported a net foreign outflow of RM4.9 billion in bonds and equities in October 2023, marking the third consecutive month of continuous foreign fund outflow from the country. This is according to UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. Larger foreign portfolio outflows in October exacerbated the ringgit weakness, which fell 1.6% against the US dollar to 4.766 as at end-October. Net foreign selling of Malaysian debt securities and equities amounted to RM2.6 billion and RM2.3 billion respectively.

Meanwhile, foreign holdings of government bonds came down to RM250.3 billion, or 22.6% of total bonds outstanding. Net outflow was RM3.8 billion in September 2023 and RM4.9 billion in August 2023.

However, year to date, cumulative foreign funds remain at a net inflow of RM16.1 billion, mainly in Malaysian debt securities (RM20.4 billion) which was offset by equities (RM4.2 billion). For the January-October 2022 period, a net outflow of RM1.9 billion was recorded.

On the equities front, foreigners turned net sellers of Malaysian equities at RM2.3 billion in October, following three months of net buying worth RM2.2 billion in July to September.

Meanwhile, Bank Negara Malaysia’s foreign reserves also fell to a 12-month low after it dropped US$1.6 billion (RM7.49 billion) month on month to US$108.5 billion as at end-October 2023. This was the third straight month of decline in foreign reserves.

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec 12-13 will come with an updated summary of Fed economic projections, which could provide clues on the Fed’s stance in 2024.

The key point to observe is in terms of real interest rates (nominal minus inflation) in the U.S. and Malaysia. On this basis, the U.S. is still more attractive than Malaysia. If we move our OPR to 3.5%, we could neutralise this effect and strengthen the exchange rate and reduce imported inflation, especially on food items. But this will be unpopular with businesses and home owners.


Reference:

Malaysia Sees RM13.6 Bil Net Foreign Outflow in Aug-Oct; YTD RM16.1 Bil Net Inflow,

Sulhi Khalid, theedgemalaysia.com, 9 November 2023


Tuesday 21 November 2023

Government Targets Rice Self-Sufficiency Ratio of 75% by 2025!

Malaysia has set national rice self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) targets of 75% by 2025, and 80% by 2030. The national rice SSR stood at 62.6% as of 2022. To improve the rice SSR, the ministry is focusing on increasing rice productivity through the Mini Sekinchan Large-Scale Smart Paddy Project.

In Malaysia, local white rice is a controlled food item whose price is capped at RM26 ($5.54) per 10kg. Imported rice has been generally been pricier than local rice. The country mostly imports white rice from India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.

The Indian government restricted rice exports to boost domestic stocks that were threatened by erratic rain patterns in August. The government wanted to keep the retail prices under check.




The Malaysian Agriculture Ministry is currently monitoring the supply status of eight main food commodities, namely rice, vegetables, fruits, chicken/duck meat, chicken/duck eggs, beef, fresh milk, and edible fish. In 2022, the SSR of vegetables stood at 44.7%, while fruits were 78.1%, beef was 14.7%, chicken and duck meat was 94.4%, chicken and duck eggs were 108.9%, fresh milk was 57.3%, and edible fish was 90.2%.

For vegetables and fruits that have low SSRs and a high import rate, the ministry aims to increase the production of vegetables such as ginger, cabbage, and chilli and fruits such as coconuts, as the National Agrofood Policy 2.0 targets a fruit SSR of 83%, and a vegetable SSR of 79% by 2030.

Targets are all good, but it is the implementation of plans that is weak. Land is a state matter and the Federal Government has to get the “buy-in” of particular states for this to work. Meanwhile, the Government could persuade Felda and Felcra to improve output of perishable items (vegetables etc.), not just palm oil and rubber.

References:
Govt targets rice self-sufficiency rato of 75% by 2025, 80% by 2030, Choy Nyen Yiau, theedgemalaysia.com, 7 November 2023

Malaysia grapples with rice shortage amid global price surge, Norman Goh, Nikkei Asia, 28 September 2023

Against the grain: The many pressures that are cooking up a rice crisis, Rakshanda Sharma, The Economic Times, 24 October 2023

Monday 20 November 2023

Iran’s Economy with Sanctions!

Iran’s economy is crumbling after years of U.S. sanctions. Both sides have indicated interest in returning to the negotiating table, but neither the U.S. nor Iran wants to give in to the other. Iran signed the nuclear deal — officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — with the U.S., China, France, Russia, the U.K. and Germany in 2015.

But former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and imposed sanctions under a “maximum pressure” policy to force the regime back to negotiations. Here are six charts from a CNBC report (22 March 2021) that show how Iran’s economy is struggling.

Iran’s economy contracted an estimated 4.99% in 2020, steadily shrinking since 2017. In comparison, the Islamic Republic enjoyed a sharp economic growth of 12.5% in 2016 after the nuclear deal was signed. However, that reprieve was short-lived.

Iran’s GDP was USD360 bil, while Israel was USD480 bil in 2021. We (Malaysia) were at USD373 bil in 2021.




The sanctions lowered Iran’s ability to sell oil and prevented them from repatriating money from energy sales.



Exports and imports both fell sharply after the sanctions were reimposed. Besides oil, Iran’s industrial metals, a large source of the country’s export revenue, were also sanctioned.



Its value on the unofficial market stands at more than 250,000 rials per dollar — that’s far from the central bank’s official rate of 42,000 rials per dollar. A weaker currency makes imports more expensive for locals, and high inflation means the cost of living is rising at a time when the people are already struggling with a weak economy and job market.



High unemployment rates are set to increase even further given Iran’s economic struggles. An estimated 12.4% of the population is expected to be out of work in 2021, according to IMF projections.



Iran’s government is spending beyond its means, and has seen a widening fiscal deficit.

This blog was drafted in response to some of my friends’ concerns about Malaysia’s stance on Palestine and the impact of the Hamas International Financing Prevention Act which was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives recently. We are not sanctioned and hopefully we will not be. If we are, then is it another Iran 2.0?

Reference:
These 6 charts show how sanctions are crushing Iran’s economy, Abigail Ng, CNBC, 22 March 2021





Friday 17 November 2023

A Comedienne in the Making?

Local comic Douglas Lim recently released a three-minute video lampooning PAS Kepala Batas MP Dr Siti Mastura Mohamad. She shot to stardom for her supposed confusion over Chinese surnames.

In case anyone has missed out, Siti Mastura had allegedly said that various members of the DAP hierarchy, including Lim Guan Eng and his father Tan Sri Lim Kit Siang were related to Lee Kuan Yew and communist bogeyman Chin Peng.

Source: https://www.thestar.com.my

The 34-year-old was challenged to provide evidence of her claims made during a PAS ceramah in Kemaman, Terengganu. Douglas’ video has been met with loud laughs from netizens who were amused naturally. In a mock press conference, Douglas understood why some would call the former Singapore PM “Lim” Kuan Yew when the entire word recognised him as “Lee”. 

Netizens took the opportunity to question Siti Mastura’s education when she confused ‘Lim’ with ‘Lee’. For the record, the 34-year old holds a doctorate in Islamic Development Management from the Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). USM is the second highest ranking public university in Malaysia after Universiti Malaya.

While many are having a laugh at Siti Mastura’s expense, the bottom line remains that she saw it fit to utter such a diatribe at an official function. The racist undertones are barely disguised when she ominously warned the audience that “these people (ie DAP members of Chinese origin) are in our parliament.”

Laugh and ridicule the lady for her preposterous statements but the fact remains that she probably was playing to the gallery. Are the constituents of Kemaman really that uneducated and backward to believe this narrative? Or are they just plain racist in not wanting anyone of Chinese origin to be in the august house, tarring all with communist and/or Singapore links?

Is this a fault in our education system? Is our history classes in school a mockery? Do we not interact with others and know the similarities and differences? On the other hand, are we not all cousins if we claim to be from Adam and Eve? So, is Siti Mastura an exception or the general rule of PAS’s members view on other cultures in Malaysia? I am sure PMX or the MOE is not amused!


Reference:

Comedian pokes fun at instant sensation Siti Mastura but there’s nothing funny about her racist remarks, R. Bala, Focus Malaysia, 10 November 2023



Thursday 16 November 2023

‘Israel boycott’ Impacting Innocent Workers

The call to boycott brands with alleged ties to Israel has received support. But a large number of Malaysians are left in despair and fear losing their livelihoods. Several employees from McDonald’s outlets were the worst hit by the boycott. A large number of employees are now in fear of losing their livelihoods. Also impacted are hearing-impaired McDonald’s workers.

There are over 21,000 employees working in the food chain’s outlets nationwide, and the majority of them are Muslims. A number of staff members are suffering from depression as they are worried about their families and commitments. Some staff who return home after work in public transport have been abused verbally as they are wearing the McDonald’s uniform. People working in McDonald’s have nothing to do with the conflict! This is just a business entity and they are not taking any sides. McDonald’s Malaysia is in no way supporting Israel or any other country. In fact, McDonald’s Malaysia donated RM1 million to the Palestinian Humanitarian Fund.


Source: https://bnn.network

A barista at a Starbucks outlet in Petaling Jaya and a Grab Food delivery rider shared similar sentiments. Business at Starbucks has dropped from about RM25,000 daily to less than RM10,000. A number of young people are working part-time to fund their education. They come from poor families and are working here to make ends meet.

A Grab Food rider has seen his income drop by almost half since orders to several fast food outlets, mainly McDonald’s, have dropped.

The best form of assistance would be to donate what we can and to spend time in prayer. This boycott is harming a large number of Malaysians. Shouldn’t we be more humane at home? 

If we want to boycott all things related to Jews or the Jewish state, then we stop using Waze,  Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Hewlett Packard, Haagen Dazs, Siemens, AXA, Goldman Sachs, Puma, SodaStream, Oracle, Ahava, Sabra, Warner Bros., Facebook, Dell, Levi’s, Calvin Klein, Dunkin’ Donuts, Baskin Robbins, many medical devices and others!

Why are we so blind to this?


References:

Misguided ‘Israel boycott’ impacting innocent workers, businesses in M’sia, The Vibes, November 8, 2023

Jews in America: Prominent companies founded by American Jews, jewishvirtuallibrary.org



Wednesday 15 November 2023

Have We Recovered on FDIs?

Foreign direct investments (FDI) were key drivers of Malaysia’s period of explosive growth between the 1980s and 1990s. But the country’s attractiveness started to wane at the turn of the millennium. This is amid increased competition from its larger regional neighbours such as Thailand and Vietnam. Both these countries offer greater access to cheaper labour and natural resources.

Analysts tracking Malaysia’s FDI performance have pinned this partly on the country’s struggle to recover from the Asian Financial Crisis of the late 1990s. The government imposed capital controls to stabilise the ringgit currency before they were replaced in 2005 with a managed float system.

Source: https://theedgemalaysia.com

In 2022, the government announced some 123.3 billion ringgit (US$26.2 billion) in approved investments in the first half of the year. The total sum of actual investments for 2022, however, came in at 74.6 billion ringgit, according to data from the national statistics department. That’s just above 60% of that announced.

Malaysian and Chinese firms recently signed 19 memorandums for 170 billion ringgit in investments across the infrastructure, renewable energy, telecommunications and tourism sectors. A special task force has been set-up to monitor this.

A key issue is the need to address the mess of bureaucracy and red tape that investors have long complained about when seeking approvals to get their business off the ground.

The PM was “very disappointed” to hear complaints of delays in approvals by Malaysian authorities from representatives of American companies on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York recently. The glacial pace of government approvals goes back years, but was exacerbated by the strict lockdowns imposed by the government during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The government offers dozens of incentives handled by at least 32 agencies, which could also be region-specific depending on the industry. Cutting red tape and improving the ease of doing business would be a good first step. Also, there is a need to spell out and implement clear policies so that investors know what they are getting into. A decisive government will also win over investors. It is almost a no-brainer to find the cause for delays and remove the impediment. Otherwise, it will be seen as another leakage that may cost the investor dearly. In addition, the PM has to be less vociferous on Palestine. Why is he not vocal on Rohingyas or Ukraine? Government’s vocal views on Gaza situation will not help investors from U.S., especially if the Hamas International Financing Prevention Act is implemented. The U.S. is the top FDI investor for Malaysia in 2022 and third largest trading partner (in 2022). Can we afford to lose this?


Reference:

Malaysia has made some big foreign investment pledges, but can it walk the talk? Joseph  Sipalan, South China Morning Post, 28 September 2023




Tuesday 14 November 2023

Health Purchase Exposes Many Lapses!

News reports on the Health Ministry’s purchase of China-made ventilators during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 made the headlines for all the wrong reasons. It exposed the shortcuts, the weaknesses and the shortcomings in government procurement and in the process, the malaise in the system.

The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) in its report said the Health Ministry and Pharmaniaga had been blaming each other for 104 faulty ventilators they received from China. There was no contractual agreement signed.

The PAC report also revealed that the Health Ministry’s legal adviser was not consulted before the ministry issued a letter of appointment to Pharmaniaga. The PAC report has also raised more questions than answers.



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org



In a separate matter, the PAC report states that the Ministry of Health (MOH) procured vaccines based on projected demand, resulting in an excess of vaccines due to decreased vaccination demand, delays in receiving vaccine supplies, and donations from foreign countries. 

In total, Malaysia received 82.85 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccines up until April 2022, based on a forecast of 83.3 million doses required by the population.  This includes 51.8 million doses required across 80% of the population to achieve herd immunity, combined with 31.5 million doses of booster shots for adults (two doses) and adolescents (one dose).  
To reduce the wastage from expired vaccines, Malaysia provided 1.89 million doses to other countries such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos and Bosnia-Herzegovina, and also took steps to promote booster shots and improve public access for them, the report said. 

The report from PAC regarding the management of the Covid-19 outbreak revealed that the exact cost of the 8.5 million expired Covid-19 vaccine doses totalled RM505 million. While the expiration date had been extended up to 18 months from the production date of the Covid-19 vaccine, as of June 1, 2023, 8.5 million vaccine doses worth RM505 million had still expired," read the report, which was published on the official Parliament website.

Wastage, wastage, wastage and no consequences. Meanwhile, should we think of more taxes to fund wastage?

References:
Comment: Ventilator purchase exposes many lapses, R Nadeswaran, Malaysiakini, 1 November 2023

RM505 mil loss due to 8.5 mil expired Covid-19 vaccine doses, PAC report reveals, Choy Nyen Yiau, theedgemalaysia.com, 30 October 2023

Happy Deepavali

 


Friday 10 November 2023

Taking Indians for a Ride?

The allocation of RM130 mil to the Indian community can be described as “pittance” or “peanuts”. The total budget amounts to RM395 bil. The RM130 mil will be allocated to Indians through the Malaysian Indian Transformation Unit (MITRA) (RM100 mil) and for Indian entrepreneurial activities (RM30 mil) through the Tekun programme.

For too long, the poor, marginalised and exploited B40 (Indians) have no real hope from their poverty cycle. Then there are numerous scandals of money allocated – only for some political elites to enjoy, just like MAIKA!

Enough about allocation. If the Madani Government is serious, then there are five areas that poor Indians require help:


Education and scholarships (for local/overseas study);

Employment (in major companies/civil service);

Entrepreneur development (from start-ups to expansion);

Endowment plan; and

Empowerment


In education, good students from Tamil schools fail to shine after Primary 6. Why? They go to National Schools and get subsumed into the dominant culture and leave school by Form Five or even earlier. Some are gangsters by age 12, happy with the pocket money of RM400-500 p.m., wear sun glasses and better clothes. But live in PPR flats. If you don’t believe go visit these flats! So, scholarships from Form 1 and coaching in subjects may help break the cycle.

For employment, they are not educated and so are in the lowest rung of the labour force. If they are educated then there is hope. I know of two girls who have made it as doctors because their parents and the school persevered. So, there is a need to provide opportunities for education and employment.

For entrepreneurship, other than AK, do Indians have other role models? The percentage share of corporate wealth in Malaysia held by Indians is firmly below 2% since 1970. In an article by Jesrina Ann Xavier/Ponmalar N. Alagappar/Lee Kean Yew presented and I quote in italics: 

With regards to share capital, by 1970, Indians owned about 1.1%, while the Malays owned 2.4% and the Chinese owned 27.2%. By the end of 1990, Indians owned less than 1% of the country’s corporate wealth, compared to their 1% in 1970. The declination in the Malaysian Indians’ socioeconomic status was owing to the dramatic changes in the nation’s economic position. In fact, Indian ownership of share capital in Malaysia dishearteningly increased from 1.1% in 1970 to 1.2% in 2004 and later to 1.6% in 2008. (Extracted from the article referenced below)

Why is this so? Partly because Indians don’t look up to business or entrepreneurship as the Chinese community do. They prefer employment especially in government or large MNCs. It is a cultural phenomenon! The other is, if they do some form of business, they are basically MSMEs. In the same referenced article below, the following was stated:

Micro firms, with entrepreneurs of basic education and minimal experience, continue to build strong family ties to enhance their business management. While, SMEs are showing strong co-ethnic ties to build or develop their ethnic enterprises. This is changing as generations change and as businesses grow. On the other hand, entrepreneurs of large corporations have realized that strong inter-ethnic ties are imperative for the rapid growth of businesses, especially in Malaysia. These changes through transgenerational succession are shown in the conceptual framework below.



These MSMEs have difficulty to grow because access to finance is limited. There is no real help from the Government for the Indian community. The only bank that Indians had was in the 80s – UAB. That too, collapsed eventually into CIMB!

The best way forward is an Endowment Scheme – similar to ASB for bumiputras. If the Government provides RM1 billion for this purpose and is run by PNB on behalf of the Indian community, then there is hope!

Finally, empowerment – many Indians have an “estate” mentality of dependency. A mindset breakthrough is needed. That will only happen if people are empowered, motivated to change!

So, the 5E plan is key to lifting the B40 Indian group from their current predicament.

Happy Deepavali!


References:

Madani gov’t should stop taking Indians for a ride by dishing out peanuts funding sum, Prof Ramasamy Palanisamy, FMT, 29 October 2023


Disparity in the progress of ethnic Indian enterprises: a study on transgenerational succession in Malaysia, Jesrina Ann Xavier, Ponmalar N. Alagappar & Lee Kean Yew, Asian Ethnicity



Thursday 9 November 2023

War in the Middle East: World Economy in Recession?

Like Middle East wars of the past, the conflict between Israel and Hamas  has the potential to disrupt the world economy. Bloomberg Economics estimates oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel and global growth drop to 1.7% — a recession that takes about $1 trillion off world output.

Today’s world economy looks vulnerable. It’s still recovering from a bout of inflation exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Another war in an energy-producing region could rekindle inflation.


In the first, hostilities remain largely confined to Gaza and Israel. In the second, the conflict spills over to neighboring countries like Lebanon and Syria which host powerful Tehran-backed militias — essentially turning it into a proxy war between Israel and Iran. The third involves escalation into a direct military exchange between the two regional enemies.

In all these cases, the direction is the same — more expensive oil, higher inflation, and slower growth — but the magnitude is different. The wider the conflict spreads, the more its impact becomes global rather than regional.

Of course, the actual range of risks and possibilities is wider and more complex than these scenarios can capture. Even narrow economic chains of cause-and-effect have proved difficult to forecast amid the volatility of recent years -- and wars are much harder to predict.

One thing is certain: hopes for a more stable Middle East are now in tatters. In recent years, rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and peace treaties between Israel and several Arab states — with the prospect that the Saudis might follow suit soon — raised expectations that the region might see an end to decades of strife.

Although oil price may rise in this strife, Malaysia’s exchange rate could still slide as foreign funds exit for safe havens. In addition, we are pro-Palestine and that sends a poor message to financial markets!


Reference:

Wider War in Middle East could tip the world economy into recession, Ziad Daoud, Galit Altstein and Bhargavi Sakthivel, Bloomberg, 13 October 2023


Wednesday 8 November 2023

Survey: Malay Electorates’ Concern is Inflation!

Malays in Kelantan, Penang, Terengganu, and Kedah are more concerned about the cost of living and economy-related matters than social issues like race, and religion. That’s from a survey by Merdeka Center in August 2023.

The overwhelming number one concern for Malays was inflation and the cost of living, with this issue being the first that was mentioned by 64.9 per cent of Malays polled in Terengganu, and 61.5 per cent (Terengganu), 52.3 per cent (Kelantan) and 59.5 per cent (Penang).


Source: https://www.wikiimpact.com

Issues related to money and the economy also dominated the minds of Malays in all four states, with 6.1 per cent in Kelantan citing economic growth, 5.6 per cent in Kedah, 5.2 per cent in Terengganu and 4.7 per cent in Penang. Similarly, Malays also wanted resolution to employment issues at 6.7 per cent (Kelantan), 5.4 per cent (Terengganu), five per cent (Kedah), while this was a much lower concern among Malays in Penang (1.4 per cent).

Corruption was the top-most concern among 7.4 per cent of Malays in Penang, and to a lesser extent in Kelantan (3.3 per cent), three per cent (Terengganu) and 2.4 per cent (Kedah).

People’s welfare was a top concern for 4.5 per cent of Malays surveyed in Terengganu, 4.1 per cent (Penang), four per cent (Kelantan), and 3.4 per cent (Kedah). State water supply management stood out as a concern for Malays in Kelantan at 9.3 per cent and in Kedah at 5.1 per cent, as compared to 0.9 per cent (Penang) and 0.4 per cent (Terengganu).

While race and religion have often been featured during elections or otherwise, Malay electorate in these states were generally found to be least concerned about such issues.

The issue of maintaining the position of Islam was also only cited by 0.2 per cent of Malays in Kelantan and 1.8 per cent in Terengganu, while 2.7 per cent cited this in Penang. Similarly, social issues like drugs and crimes, flood mitigation, local government services were also generally not the topmost concern of Malays in these states.

Has the Government done enough? No! That’s not my view but the majority of those in B40. Net food imports of up to RM70-75 billion annually raise prices of most food items due to exchange rate depreciation. Meanwhile, we evict genuine farmers from their tenanted lands in Perak and Pahang. Next we cannot increase cash transfers to the B40 because our budget deficit will increase. Then affordable homes are not available because others have used the money that was meant for SPNB (to be build homes). Rental rates go up in urban centres and the poor are then evicted (please read FMT’s article on Muggnisuari’s plight on 24 October 2023). 

So, what has the Government done? Created a committee to monitor cost of living! What else? Well, maintained most subsidies for now, kept OPR at 3.0% and provided cash transfers to the B40. Is that enough? 


Reference:

Survey: Malay voters’ concern is about inflation and economy surpass race, religion, social issues, Ida Lim, Malay Mail, 11 August 2023

 



Tuesday 7 November 2023

The Lessons of Silicon Valley

The world’s preeminent hub for technology, Silicon Valley is a byword for innovation. Today, it is home to many of the world’s largest high-tech corporations, including more than thirty businesses on the Fortune 1000 as well as thousands of promising start-ups. Further, Silicon Valley accounts for one-third of venture capital investment throughout the U.S.

But Silicon Valley itself came into being through a curious series of events and happenstances. A key question for policymakers seeking to develop new technology dynamos is to consider whether and what elements of this experience can be replicated.


https://en.wikipedia.org

(i) A Tradition of Entrepreneurship and Research

Located in Santa Clara Valley in California’s San Francisco Bay Area, Silicon Valley got its nickname from journalist Don Hoefler in a 1971 Electronics Magazine article that chronicled the region’s newfound pre-eminence in the business of semiconductors, for which silicon is a prominent ingredient. While the semiconductor industry arose in the 1950s, Silicon Valley’s success is rooted in the establishment of Stanford University in 1891. Leland Stanford, a leading entrepreneur of the 19th century who made his fortune in railroads, bought an 8,000-acre property in Santa Clara Valley upon which he then built Stanford University.

Leadership also mattered in the evolution of Silicon Valley. In 1946, Frederick Terman became Stanford’s Dean of Engineering. Dreaming of invigorating the West Coast’s electronics industry, Terman worked to strengthen the university’s electronics and innovation programs. Terman developed new administrative guidelines for Stanford’s research: all sponsored research was to benefit the educational mission of the university, would pertain to the specific interests of faculty members, and would be carried out by both students and faculty. Globally, this development coincided with the end of World War II- which left the manufacturing capacity of other advanced economies in tatters, but from which the U.S. emerged stronger than before.


(ii) The Rise of Fairchild

Fairchild Semiconductors was founded in 1957 with funding from Sherman Fairchild. Fairchild Semiconductor’s earliest customers were federal agencies, including the Department of Defense and NASA. The business was immensely successful: by the end of their third year, their annual revenues were over $20 million and reached $90 million annually by the mid-1960s.

Over the years, many of its engineers and managers left the company to form new start-ups in the semiconductor industry. In 1980 alone, Fairchild Semiconductor gave birth to over fifty new companies throughout Silicon Valley. The legacy of this gradual exodus is what we know as Silicon Valley today. In 1970, semiconductor businesses in the Valley employed about 12,000 people. Today, about 70% of the over 130 Bay Area companies trading on the NASDAQ or NY Stock Exchange can be traced back to the founders and employees of Fairchild.


(iii) People, People, People

Silicon Valley has been the preeminent worldwide hub for technological innovation of the last several decades. Beyond its role in the history of semiconductor chips and computers, the area has a remarkable concentration of talented individuals, high-tech research universities, corporate R&D laboratories, and the largest concentration of venture capital funding in the nation. Innovators from the region have not only commercialized new, groundbreaking products, but have pioneered entire new industries. The technological advances spawned by Silicon Valley’s brightest minds have played a significant role in furthering the United States’ status as a global technology leader.

As its distinctive history shows, the much-desired Silicon Valley model cannot be artificially replicated. A haphazard combination of gold rush prospectors, shipping magnates, and railroad tycoons set on building a college in a quiet valley in central California created a focal point of microelectronics research and production, funded generously by the federal government. These ingredients may not be available or suitable in other parts of the world. But one key ingredient cuts across all innovation hubs – to have the brightest minds to develop new technologies and disrupt those existing.

Do we do that? Cyberjaya started with great promise but it is focused on buildings and roads, not so much on people and ideas!


Reference:

The lessons of Silicon Valley: A world renowned technology hub, Gabrielle Athanasia, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 10 February 2022



Monday 6 November 2023

Companies, Universities Must Correspond With Government in Malay!

The Prime Minister has reminded all companies and universities to correspond with government agencies in Malay. According to PMX there seems to be a “deviation” from the constitutional commitment to uphold Malay as the national language. Article 152 of the Federal Constitution states that Malay cannot be disputed on its functions and in its role as the national language. The position of Malay is also specified in the National Language Act 1967. The PM instructed government agencies to return correspondence written in a language other than Malay.

He stressed that he was not belittling other languages, but his emphasis on the usage of Malay serves as a call to strengthen the national language as part of nation-building. He also called for higher education institutions and schools to promote the use of Malay. 


Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org

Meanwhile, Sarawak will continue to accept official correspondence written in English from local companies or public and private institutions despite Prime Minister’s “reminder” not to entertain any letter that is not in Malay. The State Secretary said Sarawak has no intention of complying with the directive from the Prime Minister to government agencies.


This is not the first time Sarawak has held opposing views with the federal government when it comes to language-related policies. In June 2022, Sarawak premier Abang Johari Openg said the state civil service would continue to use English as the official language alongside the national language – Malay. This was in response to the Chief Secretary to the Government’s statement where he wanted the public services department (JPA) to look into actions that could be taken against those who did not take instructions to strengthen the national language seriously.


The Sarawak government had also taken its own stand on other contentious language-related issues, such as the recognition of the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC) for students from Chinese-medium schools.


Sarawak seems to operate with some autonomy. Perhaps, other than defence and international relations Sarawak could act on its own mandate. Wasn’t that what MA63 was supposed to do originally?


References:

Anwar tells companies, universities to correspond with govt in Malay, Lynelle Tham, FMT, 25 October 2023

Sarawak will still accept letters in English, says state secretary, FMT, 25 October 2023





Friday 3 November 2023

T20 Paid 85% of Personal Tax Revenue!

 The Top 20 (T20) group of income earners in the country contributed RM33.68 billion or 85% of the total personal income tax collected in 2022 (this beats my earlier assumption that M40 provides the bulk of personal income tax). The Inland Revenue Board (IRB) said total personal income tax collected in 2022 — which amounted to RM39.26 billion — was equivalent to 19% of the total RM175 billion tax collected in 2022.

The RM175 billion total tax collected in 2022 was also the highest on record. Apart from the RM39.26 billion personal income tax, there was RM97.94 billion worth of corporate tax (55% of total) and RM37.8 billion worth of real property gains tax, stamp duties and taxes on cooperatives (26%). Income tax collected from the Middle 40 income earners (M40) group was RM5.38 billion in 2022, which is equivalent to 13% of the personal income tax collected.


Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org

As for 2023, the IRB expects income tax contributions from the T20 group to increase slightly compared to 2022. Income tax contributions from M40, on the other hand, is expected to decrease, as the government has provided a 2% reduction for the M40 tax bracket, which is expected to benefit 2.4 million taxpayers.

If we also remove subsidies sometime in the future, T20 will bear the brunt – a “tax” on the T20. That’s why we need to examine other tax measures – Tobin tax, inheritance tax, wealth tax and a widened windfall tax.


Reference:

T20 contributed 85% personal income tax in 2022, Anis Hazim, theedgemalaysia.com, 

30 May 2023



Thursday 2 November 2023

Overworked, Bullied and Burnt-Out!

Severely overworked, bullied and burnt out – that’s the plight of Malaysian doctors leaving the industry. The Health Ministry seems oblivious or in suspended animation.

The Malaysian Medical Association (MMA) conducted a survey that showed about 30% to 40% of doctors have experienced some form of bullying in their career. A total of 728 Malaysian doctors from the public and private healthcare sector participated in the survey, of which 476 were medical officers, 207 specialists/consultants and 46 were house officers.

More distressing is that the government noted that there had been an increase in resignation involving Malaysian contract doctors. Health Ministry (“MOH”) data showed that the trend was rising consistently every year with 168 contract doctors leaving the service in 2018, 475 in 2019, 511 in 2020, 768 in 2021 and 1,354 in 2022.

Source: the Star

A total of 253 bullying cases were reported in the MMA survey, with almost 200 of them not revealing which states they were from. It showed that Sabah and Melaka had no confirmed cases of bullying, with only 15 respondents identifying that they were from Sarawak, nine from Selangor and eight from Perak.

According to the survey, 50% of specialists/consultants and house officers as well as 168 medical officers said they experienced bullying on the job.

The survey also found that most Malaysian doctors were overworked, with junior doctors the most affected. According to the survey, about 60% of junior doctors with less than two years’ experience worked overtime daily and 20% of those with over two years’ experience worked overtime every day. Another 30% to 40% still work overtime at least three times a week. As for the frequency of Malaysian doctors working overtime, 35% of doctors work overtime once to twice a week, 32% work overtime three to four times per week, 24% every day and 9% never do.

We invest in our doctors – whether government sponsored or by way of private initiative – then after graduation they are no longer required or employed as temporary, contract workers with no future. Then we create a toxic environment so that some may leave the country or profession. Then we ask why. Next we form a committee and study the issue and produce a comprehensive report and file it for posterity – that’s probably what the MOH plans to do!


Reference:

Healthcare sector in dire straits, Tarrence Tan and Ragananthini Vethasalam, The Star, 16 October 2023-10-23



Wednesday 1 November 2023

BNM’s ‘Pseudo Tightening’ Will Not Stem Ringgit’s Slide!

Central banks in Southeast Asia including Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) have opted in recent months to defend their battered currencies. This is not by raising interest rates but via “pseudo tightening”. This essentially means using other tools such as selling government securities or bonds to attract foreign inflows and reduce reliance on interest rates. 

Malaysia and other Asean countries (except Singapore) are in a quandary. The rate differential between benchmarks from Southeast Asia and the US has continued to widen as central banks in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines paused rate hikes in the first half of the year.

The ringgit’s steady decline has put intense pressure on BNM to stem its heavy slide. The local note plunged to a new all-time low of RM4.76 per US dollar on 20 October 2023, to levels only seen during the depths of the Asian Financial Crisis 25 years ago.


Source: freemalaysiatoday.com

Malaysia’s overnight policy rate (OPR) of 3% is now at a 250-basis point discount to the Fed fund rate, which is a record gap. Despite the widening gap, most regional central banks are avoiding the obvious textbook response, which is to hike rates for fear of derailing their economies. BNM, which paused its OPR hike cycle in July after four consecutive 25bps increases, is no different. As a result, Southeast Asian central banks are becoming more tolerant of “pseudo tightening”. Central banks across the region may continue using a combination of liquidity tightening and intervention to lean against further depreciation in their currencies against the dollar.

Outflows will worsen if the interest rate differential with the Fed fund rate continues to widen; safe havens become more attractive; China’s economy goes into a tailspin and our trade is impacted; and, local inflation rate is exacerbated because of imported inflation (due to net food imports). The end result is what some others and I have said for months – “see you at 5”!


Reference:

BNM’s ‘pseudo tightening’ fails to stem ringgit’s slide, David Pillai, FMT, 20 Oct 2023