Selamat Hari Raya!

 

From Iran to I-ran!

 

On Feb 28, 2026, Tehran was rocked by an attack by the US-Israeli joint forces, targeting key military facilities and the Iranian leadership. The Iranians did not respond immediately. We have now entered into the third week. 

Markets have reacted. The most profound moves seen in the price of oil, which has jumped by more than 50%. The United States has used multiple reasons to justify its action, but these are seen as more of excuses than valid reasons. 

Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org

 

Among the many excuses used by the United States was that Iran was just two weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. This is in the world of fantasy. In June 2025 the United States said  Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was obliterated. 

Another reason for the United States to strike Iran was that the president had a “good feeling” that Iran was going to strike Israel, hence, a pre-emptive strike. US President Donald Trump himself said that the reason for the strike in Iran was to facilitate regime change. Guess what? Iran has just appointed another Supreme Leader by the same surname. 

Like Venezuela, the key objective is again economics, and the economics here is nothing but oil. Iran has the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves with just over 200 billion barrels of oil and is presently the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil at about 3.5 million to four million barrels per day. More importantly, Iran has some 12% of global oil reserves. 

Iran’s geographical position is also of significance as it controls the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20% of global oil is transported. It is the sole sea passage from the Gulf region to the rest of the world. 

Since Trump came to power just over 14 months ago, the United States has been involved in multiple conflicts. And he is the Chairman of the Board of Peace. The United States has been involved in at least eight attacks since Trump took office in January 2025. So much for peace!

The war in Iran costs US$1bil per day, and for a nation with US$38 trillion in debt, any war is a costly affair. The elevated oil prices will be damaging to the United States in the form of higher consumer prices, lower stock prices and potentially higher US Federal Reserve rates to contain inflation. 

The United States and Israel have three choices when it comes to ending this war:

 

(i)             The United States recognises the newly elected Supreme Leader and works with Iran to reach an amicable solution with respect to Iran’s nuclear programme (if any).

 

(ii)            The United States withdraws its military assets from combat positions.

 

(iii)          The United States sends its ground troops into combat while the Iranians continue to attack US assets in the region, drawing other Middle East countries into an endless war. This is the worst option for all and is damaging for capital markets and asset prices. 

Trump’s best option is to retreat gracefully, or in other words, from declaring war on Iran to running away from it. In short, from “Iran to I-ran”. 

Reference:

Does the world need another war?, Pankaj C. Kumar, The Star, 14 Mar 2026

Is Malaysia Resilient With the Current Oil Shock?

 

Brent ended last week at USD92.69/bbl, but the more relevant issue is whether disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists long enough to keep oil in a higher range for months rather than weeks. Under that path, Kenanga Research’s duration simulation lifts the implied 2026 Brent average to about USD94.8/bbl. In their view, that is the key macro threshold. The longer oil stays elevated, the greater the risk that the shock broadens from energy into freight, food, distribution and inflation expectations.

 

For Malaysia, Kenanga thinks the commodity cushion is real, but not large enough to neutralise a persistent external oil shock. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)’s decision to keep the overnight policy rate at 2.75% suggests policymakers are still prepared to look through the first-round move, but that comfort narrows if higher fuel and logistics costs begin feeding more visibly into broader prices. 

 

Malaysia will remain relatively resilient, supported at the margin by domestic demand and terms-of-trade gains, but still exposed to tighter financial conditions and wider second-round inflation pressure if disruption persists. 

 

Domestic demand has held up well, the external sector still has commodity support, and BNM has not signalled any need to react to energy volatility in isolation.  Growth has remained resilient in recent years, with forecast still pointing to 4.6% in 2026.

 

 

References:

Malaysia resilient but not immune to prolonged oil shock, says Kenanga, CS Ming, Focus Malaysia, 9 March 2026

Living Under One Roof!

 

Multi-generational living used to focus on ageing parents. Today, developers are designing homes for a different reality. They are thinking about working adult children who need their own space, privacy and independence without leaving home. This change is subtle, but it reflects a broader shift in both culture and economics. 

For many Malaysian families, the adult child who moved back during the pandemic or never left at all has become a long-term fixture in the household. What started as a temporary arrangement has quietly reshaped how many families live.

                                                             Source: https://id.wikipedia.org

Malaysia’s population is gradually ageing. In 2025, the country’s median age rose to 31.3 years, up from 30.9 in 2024, reflecting an overall shift towards an older demographic. According to the Statistics Department, the working-class population aged 15 to 64 years made up 70.4% of the total, marking a slight increase from 70.2% in 2024. The share of Malaysians aged 65 and above rose to 8% in 2025 compared to 7.6%, a year earlier. At the same time, the proportion of children aged zero to 14 declined to 21.6%, compared with 22.2% in 2024. These shifts are clearer when viewed through dependency ratios which measure how many children and elderly people are supported by every 100 working-age individuals. 

The total dependency ratio eased slightly to 42.1 in 2025 from 42.5 in 2024. The decline was mainly due to fewer children, as the youth dependency ratio fell to 30.7 from 31.6. However, the old-age dependency ratio rose to 11.4 from 10.9, highlighting the growing number of elderly Malaysians. Overall, the data points to a gradual demographic shift, with fewer young people and more seniors shaping the country’s future. But demographics alone do not explain what is happening in Malaysia’s housing market. 

Developers are responding to real-life pressures on families, from the cost of urban living to cultural expectations and financial realities. Homes are being redesigned to accommodate adult children who stay at home longer than previous generations, balancing independence with shared family life. Across urban townships and high-rise projects, subtle changes are emerging. More developers are introducing dual entrances, so one part of a home can function almost as a self-contained unit. Others include lockable studio spaces or extra master bedrooms that allow adult children to have their own privacy while remaining under the same roof. Splitting utilities and separating meters make it easier for families to manage expenses independently. These features do not exactly get marketed as homes for adult children. They are described as flexible layouts, rental-friendly spaces or multi-generational designs. But the conventional is shifting because developers have been paying attention to how Malaysians are living now. 

Overall, the economic pressures are real. Urban property prices continue to rise faster than wages in many cities, making independent living increasingly difficult. Renting or buying a small apartment can be expensive and commuting adds both time and cost. For many young Malaysians, staying with family becomes the most viable option and developers are adapting their designs accordingly. 

Financially, households are pooling resources to manage costs more efficiently. Culturally, staying at home longer is increasingly seen as practical rather than a failure to leave the nest.

Whether this trend will persist depends on multiple factors. If wages grow and housing affordability improves, younger adults may once again seek independent living earlier. If economic pressures continue or if caregiving needs expand with an ageing population, multi-generational living may become the default rather than the exception. 

Reference:

All under one roof, Samantha Wong, The Star, 1 March 2026

Is it from Glory to Gutter?

 

There were seven players involved in the national football scandal. They were not “heritage” nor naturalised players. Neither of their grandparents were born in Malaysia. They have been found guilty. 

Fifa sanctioned the Football Association of Malaysia (FAM) and the seven players on Sept 26 last year. From the moment the scandal broke, FAM officials chose clouding over accountability. They attempted to cloak the fact that fraudulent documents - including birth certificates - were used to clear these seven players to don the Harimau Malaya jersey in the Asian Cup qualifiers. Through the National Registration Department (NRD) and Home Minister, whose ministry oversees it, the government’s role is already a matter of public record.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org 

When the scandal broke, a declaration dated Sept 19, 2025 made by NRD director-general Badrul Hisham Alias, and submitted to Fifa as a defence statement, stated that the players provided the required documents with the names and identification details of their grandparents. 

Three bodies - the Fifa Disciplinary Committee, Fifa Appeals Committee, and the Court of Arbitration for Sports (CAS) have called NRD’s bluff or mistake - there is no such lineage. So, what has NRD got to say? 

Now, on top of legal fees, FAM must swallow its pride and send 350,000 Swiss Francs to Fifa - the fine for its open defiance. Malaysians need to know the full extent of this rot.

Malaysians deserve answers, not silence. We deserve the names, the documents, and the accountability that have been so artfully dodged. This saga has never really been about football. It is about a culture of impunity. If our leaders cannot answer for how public funds were used to forge public documents, then they are not just silent partners in this scandal - but complicit in the cover-up. 

The fiasco affects football, our relationships with FIFA, AFC and the nations we play football with. The “Magnificent Seven” was the theme song for the movie by the same name. In the movie, the seven were “heroes”, here they are all made to look like villains. And the moral of the story is our citizenship could be processed in weeks if you can play football but decades if you can’t. 

To clean this up, we need a new FAM structure with all Malaysians in it and a respectable President, not a politician or any from the royalty. We need programmes from schools graduating into FAM’s “wings”. We need exposure of players in overseas football leagues. We need a blueprint on the “Road to World Cup” (could be a 10-year plan). And many more, but most of all integrity in our words and actions. 

Reference:

Comment: From glory to gutter: Football’s bitter truth deserves to be told, R Nadeswaran, Malaysiakini, 9 March 2026

Why Are More Malaysian Children Getting Stunted?

 

It is embarrassing that the problem of stunting in our children must be highlighted by international data organisations before it gains more attention locally. Stunting has worsened in children in Malaysia for the past 15–20 years. We have had good national data from the national health and morbidity surveys to show that stunting in children under five years has increased from 16.6% in 2011 to 21.8% in 2022.

 

The World Health Organization (WHO) currently estimates that the stunting rate of children in Malaysia has increased to 24%. Stunting rates in much of the world are coming down. But ours is worsening. Countries poorer than us – Laos, Cambodia and Bangladesh – are doing better with a decline in stunting rates. We have now reached a childhood stunting rate close to that of Bangladesh. As a comparison, the 2024 childhood stunting rates in Singapore and South Korea were less than 3%.

 

The main reason for stunting among children in Malaysia is due to a lack of food security, i.e. a lack of adequate nutrition in childhood, as well as nutrition issues in pregnancy. Stunting is not something that happens just after you are born. It often happens before you are born.

The 2022 national survey data show a fairly high anaemic rate among pregnant women – a sign of nutrition issues and a major risk for low birth weight and stunting in the newborn. Data shows that stunting was higher among Sarawak and Sabah natives, and those with household incomes of less than RM1,000. Due to a lack of disaggregated data, Orang Asli children may have stunting rates of between 60% and 70%.

 

Stunting rates for children in detention, refugees, stateless people and migrants could be serious. All this points to poverty as a major factor for stunting. Over 1.2 million children are living in poverty in our country. In addition, we have many children who are eating enough calories to feel full, but are lacking essential nutrients – protein, iron, calcium and Vitamin D – required for brain and height growth.

 

Recent Southeast Asian nutrition surveys and Malaysia’s own 2024 health and morbidity survey show that 50% of Malaysian children do not eat a diverse diet, lacking a sufficient intake of fruits, vegetables and dairy.

 

Stunting is not primarily a medical problem or a failure of parenting. It is a failure of the many governments we have had in the past 20 years to act effectively in the face of good, national data showing that the problem has worsened. Right now, one in four children is stunted. The implications of this are staggering. The most tragic aspect of this crisis is its permanence – a window that closes forever.

 

We cannot continue with ‘business as usual’. The fact that past plans have failed means that current plans may not work. We must address the lack of accountability of government ministries and agencies tasked with stunting prevention. The critical window for preventing stunting is the first 1,000 days – from conception to a child’s second birthday. This must be our focus.

 

If we are serious about dealing with stunting in our children, we need a national bipartisan committee with all stakeholders involved. This committee needs strong civil society involvement and should be chaired by the prime minister.

 

Stunting steals a child’s future possibilities before they even have a chance to realise them. We cannot afford to let another generation grow up in the shadow of what they could have been. The impact of a 24% childhood stunting rate will harm the nation for decades into the future.

 

Reference:

Why are more Malaysian children getting stunted while neighbours reverse the trend?

Amar-Singh HSS, ALIRAN, 7 Feb 2026

Why Do We Discard Experience?

 

Something painful is quietly happening in our workforce today, and many of us pretend not to see it. A man turns 50. He is not tired, broken or incapable. In fact, he may be at his sharpest, having survived recessions, corporate politics, leadership changes, market crashes and digital transitions. He has seen projects fail and rise again. He knows where money leaks, where risks hide, and where egos destroy value. But the moment he updates his CV, something changes. Suddenly, he is ‘expensive’, ‘overqualified’ or ‘not aligned with company direction’. And if we are brutally honest, sometimes he is simply ‘too old’.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

 

We see job advertisements demanding 10 years’ experience but offering salaries that barely justify the responsibility. We see four roles merged into one title. We see cost optimisation replacing value optimisation. The irony, of course, is that in some fields, experience is still worshipped. Some lawyers with 25 years in court become more valuable, not less. Their experience compounds, and their clients trust them more deeply with time.

 

Many senior doctors are not viewed as ‘costly’ – patients will willingly wait months to consult them because experience, in that field, is directly linked to confidence and life-or-death decisions.

 

Yet in many corporate environments, the same experience is reduced to payroll weight – until a crisis hits, a system fails or skills shortage emerges. And suddenly, we are looking around saying, “We need the oldies.”

An uncomfortable truth keeps surfacing: we are losing experienced teachers faster than we can replace them. Over 19,000 teachers in Malaysia opted for early retirement between 2022 and May 2025, according to the deputy education minister.

 

Experts and education advocates have proposed bringing retired teachers back as part of the solution. It is not hard to understand why. Classroom management is not theory. Discipline is not learned from a PowerPoint slide. Teaching is not just content delivery – it is character formation.

 

Think of a retired teacher in her late 50s who has taught three generations in the same town. She knows family backgrounds and understands behavioural patterns. She can manage a classroom with a look, and her students still greet her years later with genuine respect. That is not just teaching skill. That is accumulated social capital. And when the system struggles, we are reminded, too late, of what we gave away.

 

Policymakers, human resources leaders and government-linked companies need to rethink the design. That means incentives for hiring senior professionals, flexible structures for advisory and mentoring roles, and structured integration programmes. This is not charity but the strategic retention of human capital. If we can accept that retired teachers are needed to help stabilise education, then we must accept the larger truth too. Experience is not a liability but a national asset. The real question is whether we are wise enough to build systems that value it – before we are forced to rescue it.

 

Reference:

Why we discard experience – and then scramble to get it back, Amarjeet Singh, Aliran 26 Feb 2026

 

Why Dividend Parity for EPF Conventional-Syariah Savings?

 

The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) has beaten “a 19-to-1 against odds” for a back-to-back parity for its 2025 and 2024 dividends for conventional and syariah savings. This may have raised eyebrows among conventional saving members of possible hidden hands.

For the record, EPF had on February 28 declared a dividend rate of 6.15% for Simpanan Konvensional with a total payout of RM67.1 bil and a similar 6.15% for Simpanan Shariah with a payout of RM12.5 bil, thus bringing total distribution for 2025 to RM79.6 bil.

 

Although the 2025 dividend rate was slightly lower to the 6.3% for 2024, the uniformity of both the conventional and syariah rates has led to trending news site The Coverage Media to comment: 

Mathematically, in a purely continuous model (like returns following normal distributions), the probability of two distinct giant funds producing exactly the same dividend rate (to two decimal places) in any given year is effectively zero. Even conservatively estimating discrete possibilities, the chance of them matching in two specific consecutive years is only about 4.9% – odds against it of roughly 19:1. Striking this ‘jackpot’ twice in a row? That’s truly legendary, almost magical! (The Coverage Media) 

For the record, the EPF syariah savings was introduced in 2017 as an option to members who prefer their retirement savings to invest solely in assets that adhere to Islamic principles.

There used to be a ~0.50% gap between in favour of conventional savings till 2023 – the first year of the Madani government rule – when the gap was reduced to 0.10%. 

The “mathematically unlikely” parity has EPF conventional savings members foreseeing the Islamic savings to perform even better if not surpassing conventional savings in the run-up to the 16^th General Election (GE16). On the other hand, some conventional savings members wondered over the likelihood of “dividend from the conventional savings being passed down to the Syariah-compliant savings to equalise both of them” which is “not impossible to do with some creative accounting”. 

If such is the case, then syariah-compliant proceeds from the conventional savings scheme may come from “haram stocks”. Therefore, “while the Syariah savings is Islamic, the action of equalising the dividends for both funds is not Islamic”. And if both are the same then why have two options? 

Don’t you think it is just incredible that haram and non-haram stocks or portfolios are identical in their returns and for 2 years? 

Reference:

PMX mocked for “GE16 vote buying” via 2nd straight EPF conventional-syariah savings dividend parity, Focus Malaysia, 2 March 2026

Six Year On: The Economic Impact of Brexit

 

More than six years have passed since the United Kingdom officially left the European Union. Brexit has created structural barriers that further complicate the UK’s economic challenges.  In 2023, the UK remained the only G7 nation that had not recovered to its pre-pandemic level of GDP. Meanwhile, countries within the European Union benefited from healthy intra-EU trade and coordinated recovery efforts, such as the €750 billion NextGenerationEU fund.

 

A significant difference also emerges in business investment. Chronic underinvestment, worsened by Brexit-related uncertainty, has caused UK businesses to be hesitant in adopting new technologies and expanding capacity. For example, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows dropped by 37 per cent between 2016 and 2022 as multinational companies relocated operations to the EU to preserve access to the single market.

 

Source: https://simple.wikipedia.org

Labour shortages have also strained the UK economy. Before Brexit, businesses could readily meet their labour needs through the EU’s integrated labour market. Since the end of the free movement of labour, critical sectors like agriculture, transport, healthcare and hospitality have all encountered labour shortages, resulting in higher operating costs while limiting output. In contrast, EU economies were able to leverage their integrated labour markets to respond more flexibly to post-pandemic workforce challenges. 

Brexit has also transformed the UK’s trade relationship with its largest trading partner, the EU. Customs checks, rules of origin requirements, and regulatory differences have raised costs and administrative burdens for UK exporters, reducing trade volumes. Sectors dependent on EU markets, such as manufacturing, food exports, and labour-intensive sectors, have been hit harder. Meanwhile, EU countries have maintained smooth trade operations, giving them a competitive advantage. The UK’s sluggish productivity growth, which has persisted since the 2008 financial crisis, stems partly from these issues. Brexit’s structural effects—trade frictions, reduced labour mobility, and low investment—have worsened this problem, causing the UK to trail the EU in productivity improvements. 

Brexit-induced uncertainty has hampered investment, constrained trade, and necessitated costly adjustments in supply chains. Although the Windsor Framework (in relation to Northern Ireland) has alleviated some logistical challenges, it has left broader concerns unaddressed.

Brexit has intensified the UK’s longstanding productivity issues that have persisted since the 2008 financial crisis. Brexit has imposed lasting structural constraints on productivity, such as trade inefficiencies that disrupt just-in-time supply chains, labour shortages caused by ending free movement, increased business costs, and diminished output. These factors lower investment and restrict capital accumulation. Unlike cyclical downturns, Brexit’s negative impact on productivity is enduring and structural. 

Overall, Brexit has been a disaster for Britain. There is no Empire to sell to and no raw materials or cheap labour to extract from. Without a clear plan and outcome, Britain now has potholes on roads, long waiting times at hospitals and low output from farmlands. There is no way back for Britain (to the E.U.). Its best bet is to workout a framework with the Commonwealth.

Reference:

Five Years On: The Economic Impact of Brexit, Hailey Low, Dr Benjamin Caswell, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 31 January 2025

Same Script, Different Actors

 

From the time the scandal broke in mid-2014 until the 14th general election in 2018, the well-rehearsed mantra was “1MDB is a conspiracy to overthrow the democratically elected government led by Najib Abdul Razak”. 

Recently, a similar conspiracy emerged. The police announced that the wife of a former minister is under investigation following a report alleging that she was plotting to topple the government and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. (Is toppling an elected government, treason? Then how about the “Sheraton” move?) 

But Na’imah Abdul Khalid, the wife of the late former finance minister Daim Zainuddin,  dismissed the claim of being involved in any form of effort to topple the government.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

For many, this claim and the side-shows provided a welcome relief from the serious business of corporate mafia, kuil haram (illegal temples), etc, which had been making the headlines. 

The conspiracy theory is a political chameleon, adapting its colours to suit the landscape of the moment. Once deployed to shield Najib from the 1MDB scandal, it now resurfaces to deflect attention from scandals facing the PMX administration. The parallels are unmistakable. Then, as now, foreign actors are cast as the villains. Then, as now, the machinery of law enforcement is mobilised to investigate those who dare to challenge the status quo. Then, as now, the timing is impeccable - and the impression of the masses is that these circumstances are designed to change the conversation when it becomes uncomfortable. 

But the public is not naive. We have seen this script before. We have watched it unravel. And we recognise that when the dust settles, the protagonists of these manufactured crises often fade away. The question is not whether Na'imah conspired with foreign agents or just spoke with public relations personnel, which remains a matter for proper investigation. The question is why, time and again, conspiracy theories become the default refuge of those in power. Until we break free from this cycle of manufactured narratives, we remain prisoners of our own political dysfunction - forever chasing shadows while the real issues fester in the dark. 

If PMX is brave, have a RCI for all corrupt practices since 1998 (after his arrest) and establish where and when we can have our stolen loot back. Ask the former AG – Tommy Thomas to head it. How about that? 

Reference:

Comment: Same script, different actors, endless distractions, R Nadeswaran, Malaysiakini, 1 March 2026

A Record Number of Companies are now ditching old CEOs!

 

The largest public companies in the U.S. are currently switching CEOs at a record pace, with many favouring younger and less experienced appointees over older heads. Roughly one in nine corporate CEOs were replaced at 1,500 of the biggest publicly-traded businesses over the course of 2025, the highest rate of turnover since 2010 when the economy was recovering from the previous year’s financial crash, The Wall Street Journal (“WSJ”) reports.

 

Citing analysis from a report by the executive-recruiting firm Spencer Stuart, the newspaper notes that, in the final quarter of last year alone, companies with a combined market capitalization of $1.3 trillion put new faces in charge, with Verizon and Yum Brands, which owns KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, among those opting for new executive leadership.

 

Source: https://simple.wikipedia.org

 

That trend has continued into 2026, with Walmart, Procter & Gamble and Lululemon among the companies that have moved quickly to make a change at the top in 2026.

 

In February, Disney, HP, and PayPal moved to unveil new bosses on the same day – announcements that were swiftly followed by the news that Greg Foran would be taking over the hot seat at the grocery giant Kroger. Walmart is just one of the major publicly-trade companies to have switched its CEO of late, responding to an ever more complicated landscape.

Businesses currently seeking new CEOs this quarter, or resigned to losing their existing executives, have a combined value of $2.2 trillion, the WSJ reports. Spencer Stuart’s findings suggest that incumbent CEOs are stepping down sooner than in the past and that their replacements are younger than before, with the average age at 54, down from 56 a year previously.

 

More than 80 percent of the 168 people appointed to chief executive positions in 2025 were first-timers who had no prior experience running public companies or major stand-alone enterprises. Two-thirds of that total had never even served on a corporate board.

 

An emblematic example of the trend towards youth is Paul Shoukry, the recently appointed head of the financial services firm Raymond James, who is 42, while his predecessor, Paul Reilly, was 55 when he first took the job in 2010.

Disney’s new CEO Josh D’Amaro, 55, is also considerably younger than the outgoing Bob Iger, who is 75. However, like Shoukry, the new man has considerable experience within the company, having led its $36bn theme-park and cruise unit.

 

While 3 percent of chief executives at top companies are now under 40, according to Spencer Stuart’s data, one is still much more likely to encounter an executive aged 50-59 (64 percent) or over 60 (12 percent).

 

The situation remains uninspiring for women, however, with just nine percent of new appointees to CEO positions female, down from 15 percent a year earlier.

 

The WSJ characterizes the recent changes in hiring practices as “a grand experiment in leadership” in response to a dramatically shifting global landscape, facing up to the post-pandemic challenges and headwinds presented by disruptive political forces and the rise of artificial intelligence.

 

In Malaysia, many GLCs or GLICs are run by those under 50 (and maybe now under 60). Only family businesses have CEOs in the 70s. So, Malaysia must be ahead of the U.S.? No matter, you need the energy of the young and wisdom of the old.

 

Reference:

Record number of companies are ditching old CEOs for younger, less experienced execs,

Joe Sommerlad, Independent, 16 February 2026