Friday, 9 March 2018

World Economic Outlook 2018




That’s IMF for you! Emerging markets growth for 2018 is 4.9%. The problem is emerging markets growth is “pulled-up” by China and India. Otherwise, it will be below 4.9%!

The grand issue for 2018 is the inward-looking policies from the U.S. Withdrawing from TPP and imposing tariffs on steel, aluminium and solar panels defeats increased world trade as others too can impose tariffs on the U.S., especially in agriculture and electronics. Then we have geopolitical tensions in Syria, Iran and the Korean peninsula. Further, climate has not been kind – which with global warming will impact on output and productivity. So to promote free and fair trade as IMF suggests will not be easy with an unpredictable U.S. President. Then there is this dire prediction of U.S. stock markets crashing by 50%.

All that sounds really gloomy! But being prepared for the worst and hoping for the best is the sure way forward!

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