According to the National Institute for Economic and Social
Research (“NIESR”) in the U.K, the deal with the European Union (“EU”) would
hit the U.K economy to the tune of £100 billion a year by 2030. The overall value of the economy will shrink
by 3.9% by 2030 compared to staying in the EU.
However, Mrs. May has issued the threat that failure to pass the deal is
“more division and more uncertainty”.
The NISESR sees fresh barriers to trade for Britain without
any benefits enjoyed by Norway or Switzerland.
Both these countries have accepted free movement of people – a redline
for Britain. According to NISESR, total
trade between U.K and EU will fall by 46% by 2030 with FDI also taking a 21%
hit. There is an expected £18 – 23
billion drop in public finance because of a drop in tax revenue. The key finding of this think tank is that
U.K GDP will be 4% lower than if it has stayed in the EU. Higher impediments to services will make it
less attractive to sell services from the U.K.
According to EU, if the U.K wants frictionless trade with
the EU then it must remain in the Single Market and Customs Union. This means accepting freedom of movement of people,
respecting EU law in matters of trade deals with third countries or blocs that
confer an unfair advantage to the U.K over the EU.
The present Withdrawal Agreement is buying time at the cost
of a considerably weaker negotiating position for the U.K in respect of its
future trade arrangements. All roads now
seem to point to a second referendum or a General Election.
This
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