Theresa May and Brexit: What Happens Now?

Peter Barnes of the BBC outlined the options which Theresa May could follow. As expected, MPs rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal for the second time by a majority of 149. That’s narrower than the record 230 majority they inflicted on 15 January. However, that leaves the question: what happens next?

1. No deal at a later date

Delaying Brexit would not mean that leaving the EU without a deal is ruled out forever. If the UK and the EU cannot sign off a deal during any extension then this would still be the default outcome.

So although a majority of MPs have indicated they are against no deal, they would need to do something else to prevent it from happening as a matter of course.

2. Further vote on PM's deal

Probably the simplest course of action would be for Theresa May to have another go at getting her deal through the House of Commons. Although it's been rejected twice, there's no insurmountable rule to say that she couldn't bring it back again, as long as the Speaker allows it. But probably she needs to suggest some new development for a further re-consideration.

3. Major renegotiation

The government could propose to negotiate a completely new Brexit deal. This would not be a question of carrying out minor tweaks and having a further vote.

Instead, there could be a complete renegotiation that would take months for perhaps a “Norway model”.

4. Another referendum

A further possibility was to hold another referendum. This has now been effectively cancelled with yesterday’s vote.

5. Call a general election

Theresa May could decide the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election - in order to get a political mandate for her deal.

6. Another no-confidence vote

Labour could table another motion of no confidence in the government at any time. And if it succeeds (which is most unlikely!) then that election cannot happen for at least 25 working days.

7. No Brexit

The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries). That would require an act of Parliament.

So the options are still clearly with the PM including a “No Deal” outcome at a later date.

Reference:

Brexit: What happens now? Peter Barnes, BBC (13 March 2019)