Can We Have A Smoke-Free Malaysia?

The 15-19 age group cohort accounts for 7.7% of the tobacco use population. A generation end game (GEG) strategy is being pursued by the Health Ministry (MOH). But this will see illicit trade surge from 58.4% as of March 2022 to 61.7%, thus resulting in the illicit market size rising to RM8.7 bil.

These findings were shared by a non-governmental think-tank the Datametrics Research and Information Sdn Bhd (DARE) in its A Smoke-Free Malaysia report. In a study carried out by its market research partner, The Green Zebra, it was found that 83% of Malaysians think that the country’s illegal cigarette trade will increase exponentially with the ban on the sale of cigarettes to those born after 2005. It will only benefit criminal syndicates.

Malaysia simply does not have the same market dynamics as countries like New Zealand or Singapore which has a lower smoking prevalence and incidence of illicit trade of less than 11% and 14% respectively (This is the view of The Star columnist Pankaj Kumar).

In a country like Malaysia where its smoking prevalence is more than 20% and its tobacco black market stands close to 60%, GEG is not a viable option.

New Zealand had prior to the introduction of its GEG policy undertaken a massive exercise to reduce the prevalence of smoking by helping smokers quit the habit via a tobacco harm reduction (THR) strategy which has been well-documented. The country experienced its largest-ever decline in smoking incidences from 11.9% in 2020 to 9.4% in 2021.

Interestingly, two-thirds of the respondents in the market survey by The Green Zebra also acknowledged that vaping helped them either quit smoking entirely or reduce their cigarette consumption.

Moving forward, Malaysia must deploy the right strategies, including regulation, to achieve the standards set by countries like New Zealand or Singapore to reduce smoking prevalence and incidence of illicit trade.

But here lies the problem, enforcement is purely on paper. The black market for banned goods/services is nearly 20% of Malaysia’s GDP (about about USD70 billion). Many plans are drawn-up but few can be implemented because we have “headwinds” – illicit business seems protected by vested interests. Unless there is greater awareness of the ill – effects of smoking and a courageous stand on illicit trade, we are not going to progress very much are we?

Reference:

Illicit tobacco trade to rise to 61.7% if smoking and vape ban is imposed, Cheah Chor Sooi, Focus Malaysia, 19 July 2022