Russian troops are closing in on Ukraine's capital, days after Russia's leader ordered a full-scale invasion from the north, east and south. In a pre-dawn TV address on 24 February, he declared Russia could not feel "safe, develop and exist" because of what he claimed was a constant threat from modern Ukraine.
Airports and military headquarters were hit first then tanks and troops rolled into Ukraine from Russia, Russian-annexed Crimea and ally Belarus. Many of President Putin's arguments were false or irrational.
President Putin has frequently accused Ukraine of being taken over by extremists, ever since its pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in 2014 after months of protests against his rule.
Russia then retaliated by seizing the southern region of Crimea and triggering a rebellion in the east, backing separatists who have fought Ukrainian forces in a war that has claimed 14,000 lives.
Late in 2021, Russia began deploying large troop numbers close to Ukraine's borders, while repeatedly denying it was going to attack. Then Mr Putin scrapped a 2015 peace deal for the east and recognised areas under rebel control as independent.
Russia has long resisted Ukraine's move towards the European Union and the West's defensive military alliance, NATO. Announcing Russia's invasion, he accused NATO of threatening "our historic future as a nation".
It is now clear that Russia is seeking to overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government. President Putin blamed partly his decision to attack on NATO's eastward expansion. He earlier complained Russia had "nowhere further to retreat to - do they think we'll just sit idly by?" Ukraine is seeking a clear timeline to join NATO and Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov explained: "For us it's absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of NATO."
In 2011, President Putin wrote a long piece describing Russians and Ukrainians as "one nation", and he has described the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991 as the "disintegration of historical Russia".
He has claimed modern Ukraine was entirely created by communist Russia and is now a puppet state, controlled by the West.
President Putin has also argued that if Ukraine joined NATO, the alliance might try to recapture Crimea. But Russia is not just focused on Ukraine. It demands that NATO return to its pre-1997 borders. In President Putin's eyes, the West promised back in 1990 that NATO would expand "not an inch to the east” but did so anyway.
NATO views itself as a defensive alliance with an open-door policy to new members. Its 30 member states are adamant that will not change. There is no prospect of Ukraine joining for a long time, as Germany's chancellor has made it clear. But the idea that any current NATO country would give up its membership is a non-starter.
So, what does Putin really want? Yes, NATO to stop its expansion westward. Yes, Ukraine to be more integrated with Russia. Yes, the cultural, language, religious and historical links may justify that this is for the betterment of “one people”.
But is that all? No, Putin wants Ukraine for three other simple reasons:
(i) there are huge gas reserves off the Ukrainian-Romanian coastline in the Black Sea. That ensures economic stability for Russia;
(ii) the existing gas pipeline to Europe through Ukraine has been downgraded because of the high tariff imposed by Ukraine. Russia had to build and pump gas through alternative routes for Western Europe;
(iii) Ukraine has “blocked” the water channel for Crimea because of Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.
The first point alone is enough reason to warrant this adventure and he (Putin) knows the consequences are small with his bets “hedged” with China. It is America and Europe that must “climb down” and accept a new, different regional realpolitik. Will they do that?
References:
Why is Russia invading Ukraine and what does Putin want, Paul Kirby, BBC News
NATO: Why Russia has a problem with its eastward expansion, https://www.dw.com
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