There is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level in one of the next five years. The likelihood is increasing with time, according to a new climate update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
There is a 93% likelihood of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking. The chance of the five-year average for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office
Source:
https://climate.nasa.gov
The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceedance. That probability has increased to nearly 50% for the 2022-2026 period.
The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all nations to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C.
In 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the provisional WMO report on the State of the Global Climate. Back-to-back La Niña events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures, but this is only temporary and does not reverse the long-term global warming trend. Any development of an El Niño event would immediately fuel temperatures, as it did in 2016, which is until now the warmest year on record.
The findings of the annual update include:
• The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1 °C and 1.7 °C higher than preindustrial levels (the average over the years 1850-1900).
• The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not (48%). There is only a small chance (10%) of the five-year mean exceeding this threshold.
• The chance of at least one year between 2022 and 2026 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the five-year mean for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%.
• Predicted precipitation patterns for 2022 compared to the 1991-2020 average suggest an increased chance of drier conditions over southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, and wetter conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, north-east Brazil, and Australia.
• Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2022-2026 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of wetter conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier conditions over the Amazon.
• Predicted precipitation patterns for the November to March 2022/23-2026/27 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased precipitation in the tropics and reduced precipitation in the subtropics, consistent with the patterns expected from climate warming.
For Malaysia, climate change is expected to have considerable impact. Increasing temperatures mean more heat waves. Variations in precipitation will increase in frequency. Sea levels will rise and inundate some coastal areas. The main contributors to emissions are fossil fuels and deforestation. We hope to reach net zero emissions by 2050 – is this for real? Why? Deforestation and fossil fuels remain firmly entrenched. Sahabat Alam Malaysia has stated that a survey by the Rimba Disclosure Project (“RDP”), forests totalling an area nearly the size of Singapore is earmarked for clearing in Peninsular Malaysia. We need a Minister for Climate Change – the present Minister of Environment and Water is not tuned to climate but more well versed in religious affairs! Greater public awareness is another must.
Reference:
50:50 chance of global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5oC threshold in next 5 years, World Meteorological Organisation, 90 May 2022
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