The Future Shape of Population

 

The first time our world population doubled was about seven or eight hundred years ago, and it took 500 years to double. The second time, it took us 150 years. 70 years for the third time and 39 years (1960 to 1999) for the fourth, where we went from three to six billion!

People have started to become nervous over this overpopulation issue and wonder if the planet could support 12 billion people next. Population scientists however think that, this – population of 12 billion – would never happen. This is because our birth rate has dropped significantly.

Source: BioVidyalaya (Youtube)

A population pyramid is a graphical illustration of the distribution of various age groups in a population. Basically, in industrialized countries, the largest numbers are in the middle or top of the graph whereas in developing countries, most people are in the youngest age categories, with few surviving to older ages. Despite different shapes of population in different countries, the world population overall is still a pyramid shape.

 

World Population Pyramid in 2000 (Lisa Berkman, TEDx)

However, this is not always the case. As birth rate has declined, and same for the fertility rate, population ageing is the dominant global demographic trend of the 21^st century. The world population pyramid is projected to be ‘rectangulated’ soon.

World Population Pyramid in 2050 (Lisa Berkman, TEDx)

What are the concerns of an ageing population?

(1)   workforce shortages, as retirees come to outnumber new entrants to the workforce;

(2)   asset market meltdowns and a drop in the savings rate as older people liquidate their assets and dissave to support themselves;

(3)   economic growth slows down due to labour and capital shortages; and

(4)   fiscal stress, due to rising healthcare costs owing to diseases of old age

Currently in Malaysia, 7% of the population or an estimated 3.5 million people are above 65. The government needs to provide more opportunities for those who are still productive in healthcare, technology, mobility, tourism, real estate, or financial services. Besides government, civil society, international agencies, professionals and the media need to work together for the needs of the elderly, not only in terms of financial aid but the 5 Cs – care, concern, capability, capacity and connectivity.

 

Reference:

1.     Lisa Berkman, The shape of population to come, TEDx Talks

2.    Malaysia's fast ageing population: Are we ready to handle the consequences? 16 Mar 2021, The Star

3.    David E. Bloom, For the economy to cope with an ageing population, we must identify new solutions – here's how, WeForum