Vaccination Rates and Recovery Globally

 

Many countries are stepping-up vaccination rates so that recovery will be sooner rather than later. Malaysia may take another 22 months to reach herd immunity, that is by early 2023. It is in the Government’s interest to step this up and reduce the time frame to 12 months or less for recovery to blossom. The PM and the Vaccine Minister now wants this done but are we geared?

 Race to Achieve Herd Immunity

Note: Data is correct as at 10pm 28 May 2021. Herd immunity is defined as when 75% of the population of a country is inoculated.

Source: Bloomberg/Straits Times Graphics

So, at best we may have 4-4.5% growth in 2021 and 2022. Inflation remains muted while unemployment improves to 3.2% in 2022 from 4.5% in 2020. Retail sales may rise significantly in 2021 as a result of pent-up demand or revenge buying. That assumes vaccine in arms is at a significant level.

 

 

China seems to be leading comfortably with steady industrial production and exports besides reporting improving retail sales, according to Moody’s Analytics in a recent report and reported by Starbiz on 29 May 2021.

The United States has also jumped on the recovery bandwagon, while Europe is trying to accelerate growth. But the road ahead for the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region seems long and winding, according to the report. This is due to the vaccination rollouts being slow in some countries as well as the emergence of new coronavirus variants.

These threats are forcing governments to impose more measures to contain the pandemic, which may in turn harm economic recovery. However, the continued global demand for goods and trade is the strongest source of optimism. The exports by most APAC countries are already above pre-Covid-19 levels and should expand further.

Countries with high trade exposures to the United States and China will gain. The beneficiaries are Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand. Therefore, the speedy rollouts of vaccines are key to containing the virus and facilitating economic recovery.

The Vaccine Minister now says he wants to get clinics, private medical centres, drive-thru, mobile-units to aggressively implement vaccine injections. What took you so long to decide? And there are other channels for distribution, like pharmacies!  In a neighbouring country, senior citizens just turn up at vaccination centres, no registration, no appointments, no MySejahtera to get vaccinated. Can’t we be more creative in implementation or is it about money? 

Source:

Speedy rollout key to recovery, Starbizweek, 29 May 2021