Why Did Rishi Sunak Call for an Election?

After 14 years in power, the Conservative Party faces a likely wipeout unless there is an unprecedented reversal in its dismal opinion polling. The Conservatives are blamed by many for a Britain widely seen as being in decline.

Real wages have stagnated for well over a decade; health care waiting lists and house prices are soaring; sewage is being pumped into the rivers and sea; dysfunction blights everything from the country’s railways to its prisons; and Brexit — once the Conservatives’ cause célèbre — is now widely deemed such a failure that most politicians prefer not to discuss it at all.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

Because of election law, Sunak had to call the vote at some point this year. Even so, his decision to act immediately — while his party languishes a colossal 20 points behind the opposition Labour Party — has deeply angered many of his own lawmakers. Many observers are wondering: why now?

Rishi Sunak has deployed the only weapon left in his arsenal: the element of surprise. At the very least, he fired the starting pistol on his own terms, and showed that he has the backbone to go for it proactively. But even the prime minister’s traditional allies seemed to share a sense that Sunak may also have sounded the final bell on 14 years of Conservative rule.

The right-wing newspaper The Daily Telegraph went with: “Things Can Only Get Wetter,” a reference to a  1990s British dance classic. That was the song played by demonstrators at the gates of No. 10 Downing St., which threatened to drown out Sunak’s address. 

Electoral history is full of shocks, of course, but no party in the history of British politics has reversed anything close to the current polling chasm this close to a vote. The current landscape is bleak for the Conservatives. But recent slivers of good news may mean this actually is as good as it might get.

Inflation has fallen to 2.3% — down from a 40-year high of 11% in late 2022, the worst in the developed world. (Inflation in the United States was 3.4% in April 2024.)

The prime minister may also be hoping for a polling boost from the launch of his flagship immigration policy, a plan to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda. Amnesty International called it “a stain on this country’s moral reputation” and a “national disgrace.” But 42% of voters — and 58% of Conservative voters — think immigration here is too high, according to Redfield & Wilton Strategies, a London pollster and consultancy. Net migration to the United Kingdom has risen sharply, despite Conservative promises that Brexit would do the opposite.

Sunak’s supporters also claim that, while the prime minister might be unpopular, the public doesn’t seem to have warmed to his chief opponent, former prosecutor Keir Starmer. Despite his party polling well, the Labour leader’s personal net favorability rating is minus 17 (vs. Sunak’s minus 51), according to YouGov.

So, could Sunak win on 4th July?

It is easy for me to outline but perhaps the following could have been his strategy when he first came into power:

(i) reduce or eliminate waiting times at hospitals. Fund NHS fully and build/re-build hospitals;

(ii) get a grip on cost of living by having subsidies on electricity/utility tariffs;

(iii) process all illegals on French soil and stop all boats from landing;

(iv) build/privatise land for new housing; 

(v) build the high-speed rail line to Manchester;

(vi) eliminate issue of homelessness with social services funding; 

(vii) refuse to support foreign military ventures of the U.S., like in the Ukraine; and

(viii) find new taxes to fund above costs, e.g. use the Tobin tax and “excess” profit tax on oil companies, pharmaceuticals and banks.

Was that really too hard to do? Actually not, if you are from Oxford and Stanford!

Reference:

His party is deeply unpopular so why did British PM Rishi Sunak just call an election? Alexander Smith, NBC News, 23 May 2024

Motac: 1Q2024 Tourism Earnings Top RM22b!

Malaysia welcomed over 7.56 million foreign tourists in the first four months of the year, marking a growth of 27.5% compared to the same period last year. Tourism, Arts and Culture Minister noted that this achievement places Malaysia as the second-highest recipient of foreign tourists in Asean, behind Thailand with 12 million tourists and ahead of Vietnam with 6.2 million, Singapore with 5.71 million, and Indonesia with 4.1 million during the same period.

During the first quarter, Malaysian tourism contributed RM22.23 billion to the national coffers, reflecting a 66% increase compared to the first quarter of 2023. In 2023, total tourism revenue amounted to RM71.31 billion, up from RM28.23 billion in 2022.

Motac has implemented a comprehensive strategy to further boost the tourism sector. This includes active participation in international tourism exhibitions, conducting roadshows in key markets such as Australia, China, Europe, India, Japan, Korea, the Gulf and Nordic countries.

The ministry is leveraging digital channels, such as social media to enhance visibility among tourists and travel agents in target markets, while also tailoring tourism products to specific segments and market demands, as well as improving accessibility with increased flight frequencies and seating capacity.

Discussions with the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Immigration Department is on-going to streamline entry processes for foreign tourists, potentially introducing visa-on-arrival (VOA), multiple-entry visas, eVisas and transit visas.

The number of Chinese tourists visiting Malaysia more than tripled to 1.12 million from December 2023 to April 2024, compared to 332,144 tourists during the same period the previous year. Meanwhile, Indian tourist arrivals also increased by 82.3% year-on-year to 380,737 for the same period, compared to 208,907 tourists previously.

This augurs well for the hospitality, transport, retail and other related sectors. Motac seems to have got its mojo back!

Reference:

Motac: 1Q2024 tourism earnings top RM22b, tourist arrivals up 27.5%, TheEdge / CEO Morning Brief, 25 Jun 2024

Did British Colonialism Kill 100 Million Indians in 40 Years?

Recent years have seen a resurgence in nostalgia for the British empire. High-profile books such as Niall Ferguson’s Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World, and Bruce Gilley’s The Last Imperialist, have claimed that British colonialism brought prosperity and development to India and other colonies. Two years ago, a YouGov poll found that 32 percent of people in Britain are actively proud of the nation’s colonial history.

This rosy picture of colonialism conflicts dramatically with the historical record. According to research by the economic historian Robert C Allen, extreme poverty in India increased under British rule, from 23 percent in 1810 to more than 50 percent in the mid-20th century. Real wages declined during the British colonial period, reaching a nadir in the 19th century, while famines became more frequent and more deadly. Far from benefitting the Indian people, colonialism was a human tragedy with few parallels in recorded history.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

Experts agree that the period from 1880 to 1920 – the height of Britain’s imperial power – was particularly devastating for India. Comprehensive population censuses carried out by the colonial regime beginning in the 1880s reveal that the death rate increased considerably during this period, from 37.2 deaths per 1,000 people in the 1880s to 44.2 in the 1910s. Life expectancy declined from 26.7 years to 21.9 years.

In a recent paper in the journal World Development the estimate of the number of people killed by British imperial policies during these four brutal decades show some 50 million excess deaths occurred under the aegis of British colonialism during the period from 1891 to 1920.

How did British rule cause this tremendous loss of life? There were several mechanisms. For one, Britain effectively destroyed India’s manufacturing sector. Prior to colonisation, India was one of the largest industrial producers in the world, exporting high-quality textiles to all corners of the globe. The tawdry cloth produced in England simply could not compete. This began to change, however, when the British East India Company assumed control of Bengal in 1757.

According to the historian Madhusree Mukerjee, the colonial regime practically eliminated Indian tariffs, allowing British goods to flood the domestic market, but created a system of exorbitant taxes and internal duties that prevented Indians from selling cloth within their own country, let alone exporting it.

This unequal trade regime crushed Indian manufacturers and effectively de-industrialised the country. As the chairman of East India and China Association boasted to the English parliament in 1840: “This company has succeeded in converting India from a manufacturing country into a country exporting raw produce.” English manufacturers gained a tremendous advantage, while India was reduced to poverty and its people were made vulnerable to hunger and disease.

To make matters worse, British colonisers established a system of legal plunder, known to contemporaries as the “drain of wealth.” Britain taxed the Indian population and then used the revenues to buy Indian products – indigo, grain, cotton, and opium – thus obtaining these goods for free. These goods were then either consumed within Britain or re-exported abroad, with the revenues pocketed by the British state and used to finance the industrial development of Britain and its settler colonies – the United States, Canada and Australia.

Britain nor any other imperial power of that period – France, Belgium, Russia, Netherlands, Germany or Japan – have acknowledged their misdeeds. It is also the same with the U.S. – the “beacon” of democracy. It is when they do that reconciliation and restoration could begin. When will that be? When more people in those countries learn of the inhumanity of their forefathers that some form of apology and reparations could begin! Until then, the former imperial powers will continue to behave badly.

Reference:

How British colonialism killed 100 million Indians in 40 years, Dylan Sullivan and Jason Hickel, Al Jazeera, 2 December 2022