Malaysia’s Oil Trade Dynamics

Malaysia is a net exporter of crude oil and condensates, but it imports refined petroleum products (including RON 95) due to insufficient domestic refining capacity for local demand. While Malaysia earns revenue from oil exports, the cost of importing refined fuel (even lower-grade oil) is influenced by global prices.

As of mid-2025, Malaysia's oil export revenue and import costs were influenced by global crude prices, domestic production, and refining capacity. However, official detailed figures for 2024 and H1 2025 are not yet fully published, but we can estimate based on recent trends and available data.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

·         Key Estimates (2024 & H1 2025):
Petroleum Export Revenue (Crude Oil + LNG + Petroleum Products)
- 2024 (Full Year): ~RM150–170 billion
- Global oil prices averaged $80–85/barrel (Brent) in 2024.
- Malaysia’s crude oil & condensate exports: ~500,000–600,000 barrels/day.
- LNG exports (a major revenue source): ~30 million tonnes/year.
- H1 2025 (Estimate): ~RM75–85 billion
- Oil prices remained $75–82/barrel in early 2025.

·         Petroleum Import Cost (Refined Products + Crude for Refining):
- 2024 (Full Year): ~RM120–140 billion
- Malaysia imports RON 95, diesel, and jet fuel due to refining gaps.
- Net import dependency: ~30–40% of domestic fuel demand.
- H1 2025 (Estimate): ~RM60–70 billion
- Prices moderated slightly compared to 2024.

·         Net Oil Trade Balance (Revenue - Cost)

Year	Export Revenue (RM)	Import Cost (RM)	Net Surplus (RM)
2024	~150-170b	~120-140b	+30-50b
H1 2025	~75-85b	~60-70b	+10-15b

 

Key Takeaways:

·       Malaysia still earns a net surplus from oil & gas trade, but subsidies do consume a large portion.

 

·      Fuel subsidies (RON 95, diesel) cost ~RM30–40B/year, offsets much of the net oil revenue.

·      Global price volatility matters—if oil prices drop, Malaysia’s surplus shrinks, in the converse we have a larger surplus.

There are many economists rushing to state that subsidies must be done away with for greater efficiency. We are a net oil exporter and when prices go up, we are better off. And of course, subsidy for RON95 also goes up. But if you remove the subsidy we will have “amok” inflation. So, what should we do?

Do a subsidy/price range for a tight floating RON95, so within that range we have a fixed subsidy and RON95 prices may move marginally every week. There is full subsidy outside the upper limit while below the lower limit, the Government does not subsidise. Can we do that? This Government’s targeted subsidy scheme is pointless, and without Rafizi it will not work.