Thursday 17 October 2024

Has the Government Fulfilled Budget 2024 Promises?

The image below is extracted from the article in Malaysiakini as titled above (8 October 2024) which explains the status of promises made in Budget 2024:


The easy ones seem to be fulfilled. It is the more difficult ones that require more time. It is good for the Finance Minister to explain why he was not able to fulfill the difficult ones and when he could see the resolution of the same. I like the infographics and explanation done by Malaysiakini. If only the Budget is presented similarly!


Reference:

Has govt fulfilled Budget 2024 promises? Malaysiakini, 8 October 2024 (https://newslab.malaysiakini.com/budget-2025/en/progress/)























Wednesday 16 October 2024

Better Fiscal Discipline in 2025?

Under Budget 2024, the government had proposed to spend some RM90bil, which would likely leave some RM56.1bil to be spent for the second half of 2024 (2H24), as some RM33.9bil was spent in the 1H24. Hence, for Budget 2025, leaving everything else unchanged, the government should be tabling a gross Development Expenditure (“DE”) of approximately RM92bil. 

Government revenue is projected to be much higher than the revised projection of RM312.1bil that was presented in March this year. The government’s revenue is expected to jump to RM321.5bil this year, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). The increase is expected as economic growth this year is poised to hit close to 5% GDP growth. 

On the same token, expenditure (operating) too will likely be higher at about RM317.5bil, Malaysia will likely show an operating surplus of RM4bil this year. This will lead to a budget deficit of RM85bil, translating to a marginally smaller budget deficit of 4.4%. The lower deficit is also due to accelerated expansion in the nation’s nominal GDP, which is expected to increase to RM1.95 trillion in 2024, up 7% y-o-y (1H24 increase was 6.3% y-o-y).

 



With the Malaysian economy poised to meet the 4% to 5% GDP growth target set for 2024, Budget 2025 will likely forecast higher economic growth, with a potential range of between 5% and 5.5%. 

The growth will be underpinned by public and private investment. Higher private consumption will likely be driven by higher minimum wage and increase in civil service pay packages. On the flip side, there could be an added burden to consumers in the form of higher consumer price. The gradual increase in the price of RON95 fuel will have some knock-on effect. Inflation may hover between 2% to 3% given the price pressure from the removal of fuel subsidies. 

For 2025, the government’s revenue is expected to surge to RM342.5bil, up 6.5% y-o-y, on the back of higher tax collections, especially with the implementation of e-invoicing and the GMT. Expenditures are expected to rise at a slower pace of 2% to reach RM324bil, giving a surplus of RM18.1bil. 

As the government’s finances are expected to be better next year, despite a marginally higher gross DE of RM92bil, the budget deficit will drop to the targeted 3.5% in 2025 as per the 12MP. Based on these figures, Budget 2025 will increase by approximately RM21.2bil or 5.4% y-o-y to RM415bil as the total allocation for this year was at RM393.8bil. 

The statutory debt-to-GDP ratio may reflect 62.4% and a federal government debt-to-GDP ratio of 64.5%, which is marginally higher than the 62.1% and 64.3%, respectively, achieved in 2023. 

S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s Investors Services, and Fitch Ratings have presently placed Malaysia at A-, A3 and BBB+, respectively, and may upgrade Malaysia in terms of outlook to “positive”, followed by a likelihood of an upgrade in rating by a notch to A, A2 and A-, respectively. 

This will be positive for the capital markets, as investors will be more willing to invest in both the fixed-income and equity markets, allowing the ringgit to improve against major currencies even further and on its strength. 

The bottom line is that Malaysia must show fiscal discipline to win over institutional investors and international rating agencies. This can be done via pragmatic and bold measures under Budget 2025.

 

Reference:

The importance of fiscal discipline, Pankaj C. Kumar, Insight, The Star, 5 October 2024

Tuesday 15 October 2024

Malaysia Glove Export Surges!

Industry operating dynamics remain in favour of the local glove manufacturers. This is on the back of better demand visibility, supply rationalisation, and average selling price (ASP) stabilisation. Industry-blended ASPs are currently hovering at USD20-21 per 1,000 pieces (pcs), improved slightly from USD20 per 1000 pcs in quarter two 2024 (2Q2024). China glove makers’ ASPs now range between USD18- 19 per 1,000 pcs, higher from USD17-18 from the previous quarter.  

Malaysia’s gloves export volume surged 66% month-on-month (MoM) and 105% year-on-year (YoY) in August, outpacing the growth in July (+12% MoM; +43% YoY). Export value surged 15% MoM and 51% YoY to MYR1,583mil. 

 


Meanwhile, China’s gloves exports grew 5% in August following a 3% MoM contraction in July.  

That said, Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association expects global gloves demand to chart a compounded annual growth rate of 10% to 450bil pieces from 2023-2027. RHB gathered that local manufacturers are running within the range of 70-80%. That said, RHB expects a marginal change in global industry supply of 6bil in 2024.

 



Key risks are labour shortage, weakening of the USD against MYR, higher-than-expected raw material prices, and slower-than-expected demand recovery.

 

Reference;

Malaysia glove export surges on the back of healthy demand, CS Ming, Focus Malaysia,
7 October 2024

Monday 14 October 2024

Is Political Appointments Still the Norm Under Unity Government?

A total of 95 political appointments to federal statutory bodies (FSBs) and government-linked companies (GLCs) have been made under the unity government. The Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) noted that while political appointments “remain the norm”, the number is relatively lower compared to the two previous administrations — Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri’s government made 273 appointments, and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s administration made 186. 

The highest number of political appointments tracked by IDEAS, which monitors 135 FSBs and 283 GLCs across five administrations, occurred under the Barisan Nasional (BN) government with 301 appointees. The persistence of political appointments in both FSBs and GLCs highlights the deep entrenchment of political influence in public sector governance.



 

From the latest FSB data compiled by IDEAS and its partner MyMP, updated in September 2024, the highest number of appointees comes from Umno and PKR. Umno holds 22 appointments, nearly as many as PKR (17) and Amanah (7) combined, which have 24. 

There are four key figures with multiple appointments, including Anwar and Minister of Economy Rafizi Ramli from PKR; Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is also Umno president; and former Penang executive committee member Yeoh Soon Hin of DAP. 

As for appointments to GLC subsidiaries, data up to October 2023 shows that 16 appointments were made under the Anwar-led government, behind Mahathir (13), and ahead of Muhyiddin (31), Najib (32) and Ismail Sabri (33). It should be noted, however, that these findings only track a small fraction of GLCs, as the Audit (Accounts of Companies) Order 2017 listed up to 1,858 GLCs. 

The government must strengthen its commitment to good governance and integrity. There is a need for transparent public body appointments and a cooling-off period for former politicians, to avoid conflicts of interest. Can’t we do a Public Appointments Commission just like the Public Services Commission for government-service appointments? Why must we allow for politicians to interfere in GLCs and GLICs? They have been disastrous with the “meddling” they do! We not only need transparent processes but also committed professionals, if we are to forge ahead.

 

Reference:

Political appointments still the norm under unity govt, albeit reduced – IDEAS, Choy Nyen Yiau, theedgemalaysia.com, 3 October 2024

Friday 11 October 2024

Market is Pricing in Too Many Fed Rate Cuts!

BlackRock Inc chief executive officer Larry Fink said the market is pricing in too many interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed), given that the US economy continues to grow. 

Money markets imply a one-in-three chance the Fed will deliver another half-point cut in November, and price in a total of about 190 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. But Fink said it’s hard for him to see that materialising, as most government policies now are more inflationary than deflationary. Fink expects the US economy to continue to grow at a 2% to 3% pace. 

The Fed lowered borrowing costs by a half percentage point in September to preserve the strength of the US economy as risks to the labour market mount. It was the first reduction since 2020 and a larger-than-usual move. 

Fed chair Jerome Powell said recently the central bank will lower interest rates “over time” and emphasised that the overall US economy remains on solid footing. He also reiterated his confidence that inflation will continue moving towards the 2% target.

 


If the cuts came close to 200 basis points, the Fed Fund rate will drop to 3.25% by end 2025. Then real interest rate in the U.S. is 1.25%, if inflation drops to 2%. For Malaysia, the real interest rate differential could be 1% (OPR @ 3% and inflation at 2%). The U.S. is still positive 0.25% compared to us. What will that mean? We may not be able to sustain exchange rate appreciation to the RM4.10 to USD1. Moreover, we could see depreciation from current levels. Predicting exchange rate is more of an art than a science, since speculators, including banks play a significant role.

 

Reference:

Market pricing in too many Fed rate cuts, says BlackRock’s Fink, Anchalee Worrachate and Loukia Gyftopoulou, Bloomberg/CEO Morning Brief, 1 October 2024

Thursday 10 October 2024

Tax Measures to Boost Revenue?

Budget 2025 will likely be both business and people friendly. Malaysia needs to improve the low tax revenue to gross domestic product ratio of just over 12% to at least 15%. Businesses and households will need time to adjust to a possible higher tax regime and the eventual re-introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) by perhaps 2027.

In the immediate term, e-invoicing is expected to be a strong revenue contributor as the second and third phases of implementation are expected from Jan 1 and July 1, 2025, respectively. Meanwhile, the Global Minimum Tax will ensure Malaysia collects a fair share of taxes, despite the many tax breaks for multinational corporations.

The implementation of High-Value Goods Tax announced in Budget 2024 has been delayed but is expected to be fine-tuned in the upcoming budget.

 

 

Source: https://www.financialexpress.com

 

The Prime Minister has also hinted that there will be “no new taxes” given the introduction of e-invoicing. However, the tax net under the current Sales and Services Tax could be widened to more goods and services.

Malaysia, which has already floated diesel to the current market price, may consider eliminating the subsidy for RON95. In order to phase in the adjustment for consumers, the government could increase fuel prices by 20 sen per litre per quarter over the next year or extend the period until the global market price is reached.

Budget 2025 will also likely see the minimum wage of RM1,500 being raised to RM2,000 from Jan 1, 2025. This will be in line with the raise for civil servants. Although it is a 33% increase, it is still well below the 2022 Poverty Line Income of RM2,589. The higher wage structure is essential if Malaysia is serious about implementing wage reforms.

Personal relief should be raised by RM2,000 to RM11,000 while relief for Employees Provident Fund (EPF) contributions should be raised to RM6,000. Similarly, medical insurance should be raised to RM5,000 from RM3,000 presently.

Individual taxpayers have long complained about the narrow tax brackets. Although the current rates are progressive, an individual taxpayer could easily hit the 25% tax bracket if the chargeable income is more than RM100,000. One way is for the rates for richer taxpayers with chargeable income of RM400,000, RM600,000 and RM2mil be at 26% (unchanged), 30% (from 28%), and 35% (from 30%) respectively.

Budget 2025 should focus on boosting government revenue and judicial removal of subsidies and tax reliefs. The other is to stop “gross” leakages on contracts/procurements. That way we may have fiscal surplus sooner than we thought!

 

Reference:

Key tax measures to boost revenue, Pankaj C. Kumar, The Star/Insight, 28 September 2024

Wednesday 9 October 2024

The Emirates Business Model

The "Emirates business model" is the business model that lies at the heart of Emirates’ commercial success. Its main ingredients are a lean workforce comparable to a low-cost carrier and a flat organizational structure that allows the airline to maintain low overhead costs. 

Some industry analysts believe the airline is second only to Ryanair on a cash cost per seat basis due to lower operating costs at its Dubai base. This enables it to serve secondary destinations profitably by connecting these via its global hub in Dubai. 

Emirates has not joined any global airline alliance (although they planned to join Star Alliance in 2000, they remained independent), stating that unless an airline is the lead participant in such an alliance – e.g. Lufthansa in the Star Alliance or Air France in SkyTeam– individual alliance members' freedom of action is compromised by the imposition of common alliance goals that mainly serve the interests of the alliance leaders. 

Since 1995, Emirates had operated an all-widebody fleet, largely composed of Airbus A380s and Boeing 777s. This results in lower unit costs compared to other large airlines operating a mix of narrow- and widebody fleets and allows the airline to use the aircraft's cargo capacity to increase its revenues and total profits. Since Dubai International Airport does not have any night flying restrictions, Emirates achieves a higher utilization of its aircraft than competitors. It also has lower staff costs than longer established rivals, because in Dubai there are no unions and there is an abundance of cheap labor from India and Pakistan.

 

Source: Wikipedia

 The established network carriers in EuropeNorth America and Australasia, i.e. Air France–KLMLufthansa, British Airways,  Air CanadaDelta AirlinesAmerican Airlines, Qantas and Air New Zealand, perceive Emirates' strategic decision to reposition itself as a global carrier as a major threat because it allows air travelers to bypass traditional airline hubs such as London–HeathrowParis–Charles-de-GaulleFrankfurt and Amsterdam Schiphol on their way between Europe/North America and Asia/Oceania by changing flights in Dubai instead. 

Some of these carriers, notably Air France, Delta and Qantas, have accused Emirates of receiving hidden state subsidies and of maintaining too close of a relationship with Dubai's airport authority and its aviation authority, both of which are also wholly state-owned entities that share the same government owner with the airline. They have also alleged that Emirates is able to reduce its borrowing costs below market rates by taking advantage of its government shareholders' sovereign borrower status. They have claimed that the government support cross-subsidizes the airline, masking its true financial performance. 

Many airlines have accused Emirates of receiving fuel subsidies from the Government of Dubai. The airline has denied these accusations, stating that it purchases its fuel at the same price, as well as on the same terms and conditions, as every other commercial airline at all airports in which it operates. In FY 2007/08, fuel accounted for more than 30% of Emirates total expenditure, comparable with other international long-haul carriers such as British AirwaysLufthansaQantas and Singapore Airlines. 

Emirates has also defended itself against competitor accusations claiming it pays discounted airport user charges at its home base. The airline rejected these claims, stating that it paid the same user charges at Dubai as everyone else, which were similar to those prevailing at other comparable airports in the region, including Abu DhabiDoha, and Bahrain. 

Many airlines have also accused Emirates of having an unfair advantage, since it does not have to pay local taxes. The airline rejected these claims by clarifying that in the absence of income or corporate taxes in the UAE, all airlines operating to and from Dubai benefit from this tax-free environment. In this context, Emirates also stressed that it had paid the Government of Dubai dividends totaling US$776 million, in return for US$10 million in seed capital given to the airline at its inception in 1985. 

Emirates robustly defends itself against recurring claims accusing it of stealing other airlines' transfer passengers. It points out that its detractors have carried international passenger traffic between different third country points on their networks via their hub airports for decades, and that Emirates is entitled to do the same. Emirates furthermore points out that this enables it to offer regional passengers based in or near important secondary cities such as Glasgow, Newcastle, Dusseldorf, Hamburg, Nice, Venice, Brisbane or Perth convenient, worldwide one-stop connections via its global hub in Dubai.

Emirates has countered rivals' frequent accusations that its ownership by the Government of Dubai amounted to a direct subsidy, representing an unfair competitive advantage not enjoyed by most other airlines, by stating that it was a fully-fledged commercial enterprise run at arm's length from the Dubai government, despite being wholly owned by it. 

Some airlines have claimed that being based in Dubai gives Emirates an unfair labour cost advantage over other airlines. Emirates has countered this by stating that it faces the same costs to attract and retain staff recruited from around the world on expatriate terms and conditions as other airlines. The airline points out that the total cost of expatriate employee benefits amounts to more than US$400 million per annum. 

In 2023, Emirates saw record profits of $4.7 billion. Emirates announced revenues of $33 billion, compared to $29.3 billion the year before. Profit for year prior had been $2.9 billion. The airline carried 51.9 million passengers in 2023 financial year, as compared to 43.6 million the year prior. 

The group declared a dividend to its owner, the sheikhdom’s sovereign wealth fund known as the Investment Corporation of Dubai, of $1 billion. It also gave its over 112,000 employees 20-weeks bonus pay. 

The United Arab Emirates, provided Emirates some $4 billion in a bailout at the height of the pandemic. The annual report said Emirates had repaid $2.6 billion of that loan during the last financial year. In November 2023, Emirates announced a $52 billion deal to purchase 90 Boeing 777 aircraft, 55 of them 777-9 variants and 35 of them 777-8s. Emirates will also add an additional five 787 Dreamliners to its previous order of 30 aircraft. 

For years, Emirates has relied on the Boeing 777 and the double-decker Airbus A380 to ferry passengers around the world. That will change in September 2024, when Emirates says it will be flying the Airbus A350 on routes. The airline has also embarked on a $2 billion retrofit program for its aircraft. 

MAS has a lot to unlearn and re-learn from the Emirates experience. We were ahead of the Middle Eastern airlines but now we are a pale shadow. Why? Because Management and Board are always firefighting and not planning on fleet size, replacement, cost per seat, revenue streams and backroom engineering! Don’t we need a complete overhaul? 

References:

Emirates Business Model, Wikipedia

 

Long-haul carrier Emirates sees $4.7 billion profit in 2023 as airline takes flights after pandemic, Jon Gambrell, 13 May 2024