Asia’s Ultra-Rich and Dubai!

 

Many of Asia’s richest families are reconsidering their exposure to Dubai as the Iran war rattles the city that has attracted billions from across the region in recent years. Many are seeking to delay relocation plans while others are exploring ways to reduce their investments in an area once considered safe and stable. Those who are already in Dubai are drawing up contingency plans in case the turmoil escalates. 

Dubai’s ascent as a finance and wealth hub faces a test as the US-Israeli war with Iran hits close to home. Fighting has intensified as countries from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain came under renewed attacks. A drone strike caused a fire near the US consulate in Dubai, and thousands of flights to the area have been scrapped, though airlines are trying to resume them. 

Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org

The city’s stunning growth has lured the global rich, along with a clutch of banks and Wall Street money managers. The United Arab Emirates, which includes Abu Dhabi, ranked among the world’s fastest-growing booking centres for financial assets in 2024, according to Boston Consulting Group. The firm estimates that about US$700 billion from overseas investors were booked in the UAE. Dubai alone is home to family offices that control more than US$1.2 trillion. 

Asian wealth has become a significant driver of that expansion. About a quarter of the 2,270-plus foundations set up in the UAE have Asian ownership.

Bottom of Form

Firms from Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings, as well as DBS Group Holdings, and OCBC, Singapore’s two largest lenders, have expanded their operations in Dubai to cater to rising demand from the wealthy. 

Some investors are looking to reduce their exposure in the region as a precaution, though others may see this as a buying opportunity.  Dubai stocks have taken a hit after reopening following a two-day closure. The Dubai Financial Market General Index closed 4.7 per cent lower recently, the sharpest drop since May 2022. The benchmark had more than doubled since the start of 2020, powered by growing consumption, a property rally and expanding financial services. 

While the attacks have challenged the UAE’s reputation as a stable commercial hub, some investors and residents told Bloomberg News they think the country’s strong infrastructure and governance will help it recover and possibly come out stronger. Any extended retreat from Dubai will depend on how long the war lasts. 

The crisis presents an opportunity for Kuala Lumpur or Singapore to step up their game. The safe, secure environment here provides an opportunity for funds and people to relocate. 

Reference:

Asia’s ultra-rich having second thoughts on Dubai as war rages, Bloomberg News, Bloomberg, 9 March 2026

Difference Between Sweet and Sour Crude Oil for Refining

 

Understanding the difference between sweet and sour crude oil is essential for anyone involved in the petroleum refining industry, trading markets, or energy economics. Crude oil is not a uniform product—its quality varies widely based on chemical composition, especially sulfur content. This sulfur level determines whether crude is classified as sweet or sour, and this classification directly affects refining costs, fuel quality, environmental impact, and global pricing. 

Sweet crude oil contains very low sulfur and fewer impurities, making it easier and cheaper to refine into high-quality fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Sour crude oil, on the other hand, has higher sulfur content and requires additional processing, including desulfurization or hydrodesulfurization, to meet stringent environmental and fuel-quality standards. 

These differences greatly influence sweet vs sour crude for refining, refinery configuration, market demand, and global benchmarks. Because sweet crude requires less complex processing and produces cleaner products, it is typically more expensive in global markets—especially when environmental regulations tighten.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

 Key differences between sweet and sour crude oil:

Factor	Sweet Crude Oil	Sour Crude Oil
Sulfur Content	Less than 0.5% sulfur	Greater than 0.5% sulfur
Impurities	Low levels of H₂S, metals, nitrogen	High H₂S, metals, organosulfur compounds
Refining difficulty	Easy to refine; minimal desulfurization	Complex refining; requires hydrotreating & hydrodesulfurization
Refinery requirements	Suitable for simple and complex refineries	Best suited for advanced, deep-conversion refineries
Fuel output quality	Higher yields of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel	Produces more heavy residues unless upgraded
Environmental impact	Lower emissions, easier compliance	Higher SO₂ emissions; costly environmental controls needed
Price differential	Trades at a premium due to quality	Trades at a discount due to complexity
Typical producing regions	North Sea (Brent), U.S. (WTI), West Africa	Middle East, Venezuela, Canada, Mexico
Market demand	High demand, widely preferred	Moderate demand, depends on refinery configuration

The distinctions between sweet and sour crude oil—from sulfur content and refining complexity to environmental impact and market pricing—play a major role in global refining strategy. Sweet crude offers easier processing, lower emissions, and higher yields of premium fuels, making it ideal for simple to mid-complexity refineries. Sour crude, though harder and more expensive to refine, is abundant and economical for advanced refineries equipped with hydrotreaters, hydrocrackers, and deep-conversion units. 

Ultimately, the choice between sweet and sour crude depends on refinery configuration, environmental regulations, operational cost limits, and market economics. Complex refineries often prefer sour crude for its lower purchase price, while simpler refineries prioritize sweet crude for efficiency and fuel quality. Understanding the difference between sweet and sour crude oil is essential for optimizing refinery profitability, compliance, and long-term refining strategy. 

Reference:

Difference between sweet and sour crude oil for refinancing, Aztech Training, 10 December 2025

Is Stagflation Unavoidable for the Global Economy?

 

The price of key oil benchmarks had already posted their highest weekly gains in six years by the time markets opened on 9 March 2026 – when they soared to more than US$115 a barrel. This has surpassed $100 for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark price for US crude is now nearly double its January level of about $60 a barrel. 

Oil production cuts across the Middle East in recent days have exacerbated fears of a supply shortage. Gas and fertiliser supplies have also been hit, driving up costs and increasing the risk of a significant global energy price spike, adding to inflation and slowing economic activity.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

The US war on Iran is widely expected to boost inflation across the world, with a sustained rise in oil prices rippling through the wider economy. US inflation will surge to 3.7% if oil prices hold at $100 a barrel. Americans filling up their cars can already feel the impact: US fuel prices rose 25 cents over the week, and picked up another 25 cents over the weekend, averaging $3.44 a gallon. Higher fuel costs drain workers’ wallets and add to business costs in other ways, pushing up the price of goods from food to furniture. 

Inflation is also set to pick up across the UK and eurozone if higher oil prices persist, according to Oxford Economics. Europe, which imports the vast majority of its oil and gas, saw natural gas prices rise nearly 67% in the war’s first week, according to analysts at ANZ Bank. China’s producer prices will meanwhile rise 0.4 percentage points if oil prices stay high, ANZ Bank has projected. In Australia, inflation is set to approach 5% – close to 1 percentage point higher than pre-war predictions – economists say. Petrol prices could rise by a dollar a litre, Westpac economists warned, with costs already A$0.20 a litre higher than in February. 

Oil price spikes are “stagflationary”: they slow down, or stagnate, economic activity, raising the risk of recession, while adding to inflation. World economic growth would weather a 10% lift in energy prices, according to the International Monetary Fund, but slow from about 3.2% to 3%. The UK and the euro area would each grow by just 1% or less, if the conflict persists, economists predict. 

Asian economies have enjoyed strong growth in industrial production, powered by the global tech boom, but an energy shock could disrupt that momentum, risking stagflation, Oxford Economics has warned. In the US, oil prices of $125 a barrel could cut gross domestic product by 0.8% even as inflation surpasses 4%, according to RSM, a middle-market assurance, tax and consulting firm. The oil shock resembles those seen in the 1970s. 

The world is likely to face slower growth and higher prices, even if Trump ends the war, because oil prices will not return to their lows of January. Traders will charge a premium to cover the risk of a renewed “on-again, off-again” conflict. Countries across Asia, which is particularly reliant on oil from the Middle East, are already scrambling to mitigate the impact of the extraordinary rise in prices. 

A quick de-escalation would help the world avoid an inflation spiral, as oil prices would stabilise, according to the National Australia Bank’s chief economist, Sally Auld. While she said it seemed unlikely the conflict would endure for another month, if it did, there would be “material risk of global recession” and oil prices could hold near US$120 a barrel. A month-long disruption could even see prices surpass the all-time record high of US$145 a barrel, Goldman Sachs has estimated. Three months of disruption would see prices rise to US$185 per barrel, with severe consequences for the global economy, Westpac economists predict. 

Nothing bodes well for this U.S. President. Only when markets crash and inflation rises in the U.S. will he stop this man-made crisis. There is no endgame or outcome or Plan B! If he is keen to have a regime change – then change North Korea, China, Russia and a whole host of African and Latin American leaders. Will he do that? No!

 

Reference:

Why has the Iran war sparked fears of stagflation for the global economy? Luca Ittimani,
9 March 2026

Why Does Malaysia Import Oil & Gas?

 

Malaysia exported RM170 billion worth of O&G products across three categories: crude petroleum and condensate, refined petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Meanwhile, the country imported RM152 billion worth of O&G products, making it a net exporter by RM18 billion.

 

Image via Dialog Group (Facebook)

Malaysia produces high-quality crude oil, also known as light sweet crude, specifically Tapis Blend, which has lower sulphur content and commands a higher price in global markets. Instead of refining all of it locally, Malaysia often exports this premium crude to countries willing to pay more for it, while importing cheaper heavy crude oil, also known as sour crude oil for its higher sulphur content, which is better suited for domestic refineries.

Both sweet and sour crude oil produce similar end products, except that sweet crude yields high-value fuels such as gasoline and jet fuel. Over the years, declining domestic reserves and rising demand have meant Malaysia also needs to import certain petroleum products and crude oil to meet both domestic consumption and export commitments.

Ultimately, it comes down to business, trading to maximise profits while ensuring refineries receive the types of crude oil they are designed to process. There is no pride in keeping "premium" products for domestic use if it means earning less and affecting the country's GDP. Global oil prices still affect Malaysian fuel prices despite being a net exporter by RM18 billion (this is for petroleum products including gas). However, since 2022, we are net crude oil importer (but net exporter with LNG and petroleum products). 

According to the Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA), the country has six oil refineries located in: 

·              Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan

·              Kertih and Kemaman, Terengganu

·              Tangga Batu and Sungai Udang, Melaka

·              Pengerang, Johor

The country also has two naphtha crackers, two ethane gas crackers, and six LNG facilities, including two floating ones.

Meanwhile, Malaysia has about 20 active drilling rigs, making up roughly half the regional total, placing it among Southeast Asia's leaders in exploration and production (E&P) activity.

Malaysia has a refining capacity of approximately 1.03 million barrels per day, while producing (drilling from the earth) slightly over half a million barrels per day.
Most Malaysian refineries are configured to process heavier sour crude oil, which is typically imported from countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman. The only local refinery dedicated to processing sweet crude oil is PETRONAS Penapisan in Terengganu, the company's first refinery in Malaysia, which processes about 49,000 barrels of sweet crude oil. 

So, we have sufficient capacity to process sour crude, the Strait of Hormuz will matter to us. Why? The war with Iran will drive prices up – above USD100 per barrel and have inflationary forces unleashed.

Reference:

Explained: Why does Malaysia import oil & gas despite producing its own? Says.com, 12 March 2026

 

Selamat Hari Raya!

 

From Iran to I-ran!

 

On Feb 28, 2026, Tehran was rocked by an attack by the US-Israeli joint forces, targeting key military facilities and the Iranian leadership. The Iranians did not respond immediately. We have now entered into the third week. 

Markets have reacted. The most profound moves seen in the price of oil, which has jumped by more than 50%. The United States has used multiple reasons to justify its action, but these are seen as more of excuses than valid reasons. 

Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org

 

Among the many excuses used by the United States was that Iran was just two weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. This is in the world of fantasy. In June 2025 the United States said  Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was obliterated. 

Another reason for the United States to strike Iran was that the president had a “good feeling” that Iran was going to strike Israel, hence, a pre-emptive strike. US President Donald Trump himself said that the reason for the strike in Iran was to facilitate regime change. Guess what? Iran has just appointed another Supreme Leader by the same surname. 

Like Venezuela, the key objective is again economics, and the economics here is nothing but oil. Iran has the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves with just over 200 billion barrels of oil and is presently the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil at about 3.5 million to four million barrels per day. More importantly, Iran has some 12% of global oil reserves. 

Iran’s geographical position is also of significance as it controls the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20% of global oil is transported. It is the sole sea passage from the Gulf region to the rest of the world. 

Since Trump came to power just over 14 months ago, the United States has been involved in multiple conflicts. And he is the Chairman of the Board of Peace. The United States has been involved in at least eight attacks since Trump took office in January 2025. So much for peace!

The war in Iran costs US$1bil per day, and for a nation with US$38 trillion in debt, any war is a costly affair. The elevated oil prices will be damaging to the United States in the form of higher consumer prices, lower stock prices and potentially higher US Federal Reserve rates to contain inflation. 

The United States and Israel have three choices when it comes to ending this war:

 

(i)             The United States recognises the newly elected Supreme Leader and works with Iran to reach an amicable solution with respect to Iran’s nuclear programme (if any).

 

(ii)            The United States withdraws its military assets from combat positions.

 

(iii)          The United States sends its ground troops into combat while the Iranians continue to attack US assets in the region, drawing other Middle East countries into an endless war. This is the worst option for all and is damaging for capital markets and asset prices. 

Trump’s best option is to retreat gracefully, or in other words, from declaring war on Iran to running away from it. In short, from “Iran to I-ran”. 

Reference:

Does the world need another war?, Pankaj C. Kumar, The Star, 14 Mar 2026

Is Malaysia Resilient With the Current Oil Shock?

 

Brent ended last week at USD92.69/bbl, but the more relevant issue is whether disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists long enough to keep oil in a higher range for months rather than weeks. Under that path, Kenanga Research’s duration simulation lifts the implied 2026 Brent average to about USD94.8/bbl. In their view, that is the key macro threshold. The longer oil stays elevated, the greater the risk that the shock broadens from energy into freight, food, distribution and inflation expectations.

 

For Malaysia, Kenanga thinks the commodity cushion is real, but not large enough to neutralise a persistent external oil shock. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)’s decision to keep the overnight policy rate at 2.75% suggests policymakers are still prepared to look through the first-round move, but that comfort narrows if higher fuel and logistics costs begin feeding more visibly into broader prices. 

 

Malaysia will remain relatively resilient, supported at the margin by domestic demand and terms-of-trade gains, but still exposed to tighter financial conditions and wider second-round inflation pressure if disruption persists. 

 

Domestic demand has held up well, the external sector still has commodity support, and BNM has not signalled any need to react to energy volatility in isolation.  Growth has remained resilient in recent years, with forecast still pointing to 4.6% in 2026.

 

 

References:

Malaysia resilient but not immune to prolonged oil shock, says Kenanga, CS Ming, Focus Malaysia, 9 March 2026