Can the Ringgit Keep Rising?

 

The ringgit touched the RM3.92 mark against the US dollar recently, a level not seen since June 2018. This keeps the ringgit as Asia’s best performer, outperforming major currencies including the Japanese yen and Singapore dollar. Broad US dollar weakness, improving regional sentiment, and a host of domestic fundamentals are said to be underpinning the ringgit’s surge. 

The rally sparks optimism but its staying power beyond the first half of financial year 2026 (1H26) is unclear. The ringgit’s appreciation is still largely a dollar story, driven by expectations that the upcoming new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair appointee could usher in a more dovish rate-cut cycle. Fed chair Jerome Powell’s leadership term ends in May, and US President Donald Trump is now expected to nominate a new Fed chair within days. Looking at Bloomberg consensus, the ringgit has already hit its year-end target of 4.00 against the US dollar. While that may be the case, dollar-ringgit pair may end the year at around 3.80. 

The ringgit’s recent appreciation will broadly benefit Corporate Malaysia, which is driven by domestic demand, but exporters will feel the squeeze on margins. Many companies stand to gain from a stronger ringgit, as lower import and procurement costs could help support margins. These sectors include aviation, automotive, cement, construction, consumer, media, renewable energy, real estate and telecommunications. On the other hand, export-oriented sectors could be negatively affected by the ringgit’s appreciation, given their largely US dollar-denominated revenue and lack of offsetting US dollar costs. These include sectors such as gloves, technology, electronics manufacturing services, upstream oil and gas, petrochemicals, and metal producers.

 

 

The ringgit’s gain can be attributed to:

-Interest rate differentials have narrowed.

-Trade surplus is maintained even with recent appreciation.

-Malaysia’ GDP growth exceeds U.S. GDP growth.

-Inflation in Malaysia is lower than in the U.S.

-Strong inflows of FDIs.

-Responsible fiscal measures; and

-Prudent monetary policy. 

How long will this last? Good question. May do another article later. 

References:

How long can the ringgit keep rising? Elim Poon, The Star, 27 Jan 2026

 

Ringgit gains will favour domestic-driven sectors, weigh on exporters — HLIB, Jazlin Zakri/theedgemalaysia.com, 28 Jan 2026

 

 

VM2026 and “Surreal Experiences”

 

The Visit Malaysia 2026 (VM2026) and its theme, theme “Surreal Experiences” is an initiative to boost domestic tourism and generate wider economic benefits. It aims to attract 43 million visitors and generate RM329bil in tourism receipts or 15.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 compared to 2025’s target (43 million visitors and RM216bil tourism receipts or 10.7% of GDP). The target for 2025 is achievable as total number of visitors have reached 38.3 million (24 million tourists) in the first eleven months of 2025. (Unless some untoward incident like Covid occurs) 

VM2026 marks the fifth campaign since the first Visit Malaysia Year was launched in 1990 (1994, 2007, 2014). In preparing for VM2026, expenditure allocations for the tourism sector amounted to RM400mil in Budget 2025 and over RM700mil in Budget 2026, including RM500mil for the VM2026 campaign. 

Source https://rai.malaysia.gov.my/visit

Past Visit Malaysia Year campaigns have successfully boosted the tourism sector. It not only reflected in higher international tourists and tourists’ receipts but also generated significant positive impact on domestic tourism as Malaysians also made trips to tourist attractions. 

The domestic tourism sector is one of the major economic engines of the Malaysian economy.

Post the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, total value-added output (both direct and indirect) of the tourism sector had rebounded and surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2018-2019. 

It generated an average of RM281.9bil per year in 2023 to 2024 or an average share 15% of total GDP (an average of RM230.2bil per year or 15.5% of GDP in 2018 to 2019). Tourism employment made up 21.6% of total employment or 3.5 million persons in 2024. 

The sector is also a major foreign exchange earner, generating RM81.7bil per year in 2023 to 2024 (an average share of 4.3% of GDP) compared to RM80.7bil per year in 2018 to 2019 (an average share of 5.4% of GDP). In January to September last year, tourism’s foreign exchange earnings amounted to RM79.4bil or 5.3% of GDP. The tourism sector’s value-added output has demonstrated robustness, growing by 13.8% per annum in 2022 to 2024, higher than 9.7% per annum in 2015 to 2019. The strong recovery was in line with the global trends, driven by pent-up demand, visa-free facilities, improved connectivity, and strategic promotions. 

Overall, although the average length of stay per tourist in Malaysia was lower at 5.1 nights in 2024 (an average of 6.2 nights in 2015 to 2019), expenditure per capita has increased. 

In 2015 to 2024, within the tourists coming from the Middle-East, the United Arab Emirates has emerged top in expenditure per capita (plus 5.4% per annum to RM12,299 in 2024 versus RM7,637 in 2015). Within the grouping of Americas, Europe and Oceania, tourists from the United Kingdom have the highest spending per capita (plus 5.3% per annum to RM7,039 in 2024 vs. 2015: RM4,404). In Asia, China tourists had recorded higher expenditure per capita (plus 7% per annum to RM6,291 in 2024 versus RM3,419 in 2015). Within Asean, Philippines tourists’ expenditure per capita increased by 5% per annum to RM4,321 in 2024 compared to RM2,783 in 2015. 

By tourists’ expenditure component in 2024, shopping continued to be the largest expenditure category (RM37bil or 36.1% of total spending), followed by accommodation (RM19.3bil or 18.1%), food and beverage (RM16.2bil or 15.9%), purchases of international airfares (RM8.7bil or 8.5% of total), local transportation (5.7%), and medical tourism (4.7%). 

Airports are crucial tourist touchpoints. Digital tools can optimise airport passengers’ experience monitoring using real-time data from artificial intelligence, sensors, and social media to track movement, measure wait times, manage queues, and optimise staffing. The government has rolled out digital immigration facilitation through the minimize app, expanded auto gate access, and the Advance Passenger Screening System adoption to improve processing speed and visitor experience. To strengthen hotel-tourist connections, focus on personalisation, seamless technology, proactive communication, and local integration from pre-arrival to post-stay. If we work on seamless service from arrival to departure it will be a surreal experience for tourists. 

Reference:

VM2026 marks a step forward for tourism growth, Lee Heng Guie, The Star, 26 Jan 2026

 

Are We Building Schools for Real Kids?

 

Malaysia has set its roadmap for the next decade of education, the Education Blueprint 2026–2035. There are targets, data, and outcomes which are, of course, useful to measure. But before we get lost in the numbers, we need to ask a simple question: Who are we building this for?

Are our classrooms for students of 20 years ago? Generation Z and the rising Generation Alpha are often labelled as distracted, impatient, or “too sensitive”.

 

But what if we’re misreading them? These aren’t flaws, but survival skills adaptations to a world of digital immersion, endless information, and deep uncertainty. When a student tunes out, it’s not always a refusal to learn. Sometimes, it’s because the way we teach just doesn’t “connect” with how they experience the world.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

 

The Blueprint’s focus on standards is important, but if all we do is double down on exams and rigid metrics, we might widen the very gaps we’re trying to close. We carry the world’s knowledge in our pockets. So, what’s school for? It can’t just be about recalling facts. The real value now is in teaching kids how to think critically, make wise judgments, and navigate ethical dilemmas.

 

Yet so much of our system still rewards memorisation, one-size-fits-all pacing, and that suffocating pressure of a single high-stakes test that focuses on rote learning without meaning.

Think about the student who struggles on paper but can troubleshoot any tech problem, teach themselves a skill from YouTube, or mediate a friend’s conflict. If we truly want them future-ready, we need to measure understanding, not just the endurance to cram.

 

It’s a myth that they reject all discipline. What they reject are arbitrary rules that serve no clear purpose. They ask “why” not to be defiant, but because they’ve grown up in a world where authority from news sources to influencers has to explain itself to be believed. In their vocabulary respect need to earned not enforced.

 

Schools that run on “because I said so” will keep clashing with kids wired to question, compare, and verify. Today, respect isn’t handed out with a title; it’s built through consistency, transparency, and fairness. For any reform to stick, our educational leaders need to embody that.

 

We cannot talk about success without talking about our students’ mental and emotional health. They speak openly about stress and anxiety not because they are fragile, but because they have the vocabulary for feelings earlier generations bottled up. Thus, well-being is not a distraction but foundation.

 

Resilience isn’t forged by pressure alone. It grows when a student feels psychologically safe, faces meaningful challenges, and has a say in their own learning. Pushing well-being aside doesn’t create tougher kids; it creates disconnected ones.

 

Are we training teachers to be lecturers of content, or gardeners of curiosity? Do our assessments capture the journey of learning, or just sort students into winners and losers? Do we see students as empty vessels to fill, or as active partners in their own education? The most important thing to remember is that today’s students are not the problem that needs fixing. They are the reality we need to design for.

 

If this new Blueprint (which I haven’t read) treats as if Google, AI, and a chaotic world don’t exist, we will keep mistaking a child’s adaptation for their failure. The true test of this decade-long plan won’t be how impressive it looks in a report but whether it meets our children’s needs where they live—and lovingly equips them for a future that may already be here.

 

Reference:
Are we building schools for real kids, or for ghosts of the past? KT Maran, Focus Malaysia, 21 Jan 2026

152 years of S&P 500 Returns!

 

Based on forecasts from 2,000+ specialists, most expect the S&P 500 to rise again in 2026—potentially creating the longest run of gains in almost 20 years. This amazing table is presented by Visual Capitalist. 

 

 

Reference:

Visual Capitalist’s post on Linkedin

Economists Keep 2026 CPI Forecasts!

 

Economists expect modest upward pressure on inflation through 2026. Their assessment follows the release of Malaysia’s headline consumer price index (CPI) in December on Tuesday (Jan 20), which came in slightly above expectations at 1.6% year-on-year. The December print — marginally above Bloomberg’s survey consensus of 1.4% — reflected higher prices for personal care items, education and selected household expenses. Full-year inflation averaged 1.4% in 2025, easing from 1.8% in 2024, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM). 

Inflation will drift higher in 2026, driven mainly by policy adjustments, stronger demand pressures and selected cost pass-throughs. MBSB Research maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 1.8%, noting that while inflation remains mild, upward pressure is likely to build from policy changes such as the expanded Sales and Service Tax (SST) and the gradual passthrough of costs from micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). MBSB also anticipates "growing demand-pull inflation on the back of some monetary policy easing previously", although price growth is likely to be moderate across food, non-food, and core categories, with lower crude oil prices helping to contain broader cost increases. A firmer ringgit and falling global food prices should keep imported inflation in check, although second-round effects from tax measures remain a risk.

 

CIMB Treasury & Markets Research said the December increase was driven partly by “one-off” factors, particularly the normalisation of the information and communication (ICT) category after a year of deflation. CIMB economists noted that subscription costs for audio-visual content and streaming services had surged 13.9% y-o-y, contributing significantly to December’s reading, while pressures from insurance — one of 2025’s key inflation drivers — are likely to ease in the second half of 2026 as the base effect fades.

 

Kenanga Research likewise expects inflation risks to "tilt modestly to the upside" in 2026, projecting inflation to average 1.9% through the year, helped by energy subsidies and imported disinflation. Kenanga Research added that the planned introduction of a multi-tier levy for migrant workers this year may “add further cost pressures in labour-intensive sectors”. 

But with Budi95 fuel subsidies and a stronger ringgit, inflation should be “below its 30-year average of 2.3%”. Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to keep the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 2.75% for 2026, citing balanced growth-inflation dynamics and the need to preserve policy space amid external uncertainties. 

Inflationary pressures generally affect fixed income salaried employees, pensioners, savers and the B40/M40 groups. The Government will need to look at steps to reduce impact with targeted subsidies or incentives. Many SMEs may also face issues in raising prices if they are beholden to larger corporations or the expert market. 

Overall, 2026 does not bode well with GDP at 3.5-4.0%, inflation at 1.5-2.0%, and exports muted by tariffs and geopolitical risks. Remain cautious and liquid! 

Reference:

Economists keep 2026 CPI forecasts after December surprise uptick, modest increase seen, Emir Zainul / theedgemalaysia.com, 20 Jan 2026

 

Economists Flag 2026 Export Slowdown!

 

Malaysia’s export outlook is expected to remain challenging in 2026. Economists forecast a slowdown driven by renewed US tariffs, heightened geopolitical risks, and the fading of "front-loading" activities. This cautious outlook comes despite a historic performance in 2025, where Malaysia's exports grew by 6.5% to reach an all-time high of RM1.61 trillion. This was supported by a strong finish in December, with shipments abroad surging 10.4% to RM153 billion from 2024. 

December's growth far exceeded the 2.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and a sharp acceleration from November's 7% growth. Imports also saw a double-digit increase, rising 12% to RM133.7 billion. Trade surplus for the month rose a marginal 0.1% to RM19.3 billion, marking the 68th consecutive month of surplus since May 2020. For the full year of 2025, Malaysia's exports grew 6.5%, while imports rose 6.2%, raising total trade by 6.3% past RM3.1 trillion for the first time. Annual trade surplus rose 9.2% to RM151.8 billion. 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

Malaysia’s largest export segment, electrical and electronic (E&E) sector faces additional pressure from the recently announced 25% tariff on certain semiconductor products, which could dampen the broader economy and technology industry. On the upside, E&E exports are expected to remain resilient amid the ongoing global tech upcycle, while the oversupply condition in the commodity market may result in the exports of mining goods to constrain overall growth, said MBSB Research. 

OCBC Group Research expects goods export growth to slow to 2.2% in 2026, down from 6.5% in 2025, due to payback from aggressive front-loading of exports to the US seen last year, and softer external demand. It also projected that import growth would slow to 4.3% from 6.2% in 2025, as investment spending normalises. These forecasts are consistent with OCBC’s view that headline GDP growth will slow to 3.8% in 2026 from 4.9% in 2025. 

UOB Global Economics and Markets Research expects a bumpy trade outlook for 2026, amid the renewed US tariff threats and escalating geopolitical risks and has likewise kept its export growth forecast modest at 2.5%, slightly below the Finance Ministry’s 2.8% projection. While recent US tariffs on eight European countries — including Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK — are not expected to have any direct impact on Malaysia, potential secondary effects will take time to assess. 

The impact will be ringgit, GDP growth and investment outlook. A more cautionary stance my occur. This can be countered by higher domestic consumption and higher public investment in infrastructure or related areas. The constraints may of course be inflationary pressures and higher public sector borrowings to GDP. Walking the tight balance is the art of governance! 

References:

Economists flag 2026 export slowdown despite Malaysia's record-breaking 2025 trade performance, Syafiqah Salim / theedgemalaysia.com, 20 Jan 2026

 

2026 MATRADE

Car Sales Hit Record 820,752 Units in 2025!

 

Malaysia's automotive sector total industry volume (TIV) reached an all-time high of 820,752 units in 2025. This represents a record four-year growth streak. However, the Malaysia Automotive Association (MAA) does not expect the momentum to continue, as it sees lower sales at 790,000 units in 2026.  TIV grew 0.5% year-on-year in 2025, initially rising from 508,883 units in 2021 to 721,177 in 2022 and subsequently to 799,821 in 2023. The projected 3.75% year-on-year decline is due to moderating economic growth, cost pressures and policy changes that weigh on vehicle affordability. 

The TIV outlook reflects Malaysia’s gross domestic product growth moderating to between 4% and 4.5% in 2026 from an estimated 4.9% in 2025, alongside persistent inflationary pressures stemming from higher manufacturing, component and operational costs.

 

The expiry of tax incentives for imported electric vehicles (EV) and potential revisions to excise duty and vehicle pricing calculations could make new cars less affordable for consumers. In addition, rising living costs are expected to constrain disposable incomes, potentially weakening consumers’ ability to commit to new vehicle purchases. Despite these challenges, low unemployment, stable incomes, strong demand for affordable and fuel-efficient cars, growth in the EV ecosystem, new models, and attractive promotions will continue to support car sales. 

Malaysia’s auto market exceeded 800,000 units for the second year in a row in 2025, supported by the strong domestic demand, recovering exports, lower interest rates, low unemployment, new EV launches, and aggressive year-end promotions. 2025 also saw the highest monthly TIV on record at 90,716 units in December, as well as the highest quarterly TIV of 241,416 units in the fourth quarter, said Mohd Shamsor. 

Following the end of the completely built-up (CBU) EV tax holiday at the end of December last year, the pricing adjustments may emerge once existing inventories are cleared. Starting January this year, fully imported completed built-up (CBU) EVs in Malaysia are subject to a 30% import duty, 10% exercise duty and 10% sales tax, marking the end of the duty-free period previously granted to promote EV adoption. 

However, the applicable import duty varies depending on the country of origin and free trade agreements, with CBU EVs imported from China, for example, subject to a lower import duty of 5%.  Any price adjustments are expected to be reflected only three to four months later, as distributors continue to sell existing inventory brought in before the incentive expiry. CBU EVs that arrived in Malaysia and were declared to customs before Dec 28, 2025 can still be sold at tax-free prices in 2026, allowing companies to use existing stocks before new pricing structures take effect. EV sales are expected to remain supported by wider model availability, growing consumer awareness and increasing charging infrastructure.  

The association has asked the government to extend tax incentives for locally assembled EVs until at least 2040, noting that investments in EV assembly plants require a longer planning and recovery horizon of between five and 10 years. The tax incentives for the completely knocked down (CKD) locally-assembled EVs will remain until the end of 2027. EV sales continued to gain traction in 2025, with battery electric vehicle registrations rising 109% year-on-year to 30,848 units, bringing the total EVs sales – including hybrid EVs – climbed 52% to 69,363 units. 

On a broader picture, isn’t it time for national cars to be weaned off from protection? How many more years? It’s already over 40 years and still need “parental” support? Stop helping Geely and Daihatsu/Toyota, they must stand competition! The problem is the R&D is not here but in China or some other place. If you want to be proud of your national car – ICE or EV – then have the R&D, parts including batteries produced locally. Be like the Koreans and not produce re-badged cars and call them national! Minimise taxes and please remove APs. 

Reference:

MAA: Car sales hit record 820,752 units in 2025; 2026 to end four-year record, Justin Lim / theedgemalaysia.com, 20 Jan 2026