Friday 28 April 2023

The People Needing EPF Withdrawals

For most people, life is back to normal with the worst of the pandemic over, but for some the nightmare continues as debts pile up. And if you earned RM8,000 a month as a security, safety and health manager but was retrenched with Covid-19  with no job since, life is difficult. If prospect of full-time employment is dim, withdrawal from Account 1will first be used to settle overdue debts. 

The PM has proposed the use of EPF Account 2 to support bank loans as an alternative, a scheme known as FSA2. Many may not qualify FSA2. Why?

You need to have a monthly income. Second, you need to have more than RM3,000 in account 2. And lastly, those whose applications are approved need to make monthly payments. Without regular income this is impossible.


Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org


Whether it is Parameswaran, Mohd Ramli or Tan Tse Chong, they are in dire straits to survive. It is easy for civil servants to hatch “FSA 2” which is fine for some individuals. But what about the rest? EPF needs to be proactive and call-in those with low savings in Account 1 or 2 and establish case credentials.

We don’t have the staff to do this? Engage or outsource this service and validate before approving a new facility or allowing withdrawals. The other way is to create a loan scheme from those EPF members with RM0.5 million or more to lend to other EPF members who are in dire need. This is a voluntary scheme guaranteed by the Government. Consent is sought from those willing to lend on a short-term basis. This is a member-help-member scheme. Your principal or interest is not at risk if guaranteed by the Government. And we don’t need the banks or BNM. The only catch is to re-examine EPF’s charter, if this is feasible. 

Shouldn’t the PM’s advisory committee examine new and interesting ways to assist the poor, destitute and marginalised?

Reference:
Neither young nor jobless: the people needing EPF withdrawals, Sheridan Mahavera, FMT, 15 April 2023

Thursday 27 April 2023

Average Malaysian Need to Work for over 95 Years?

A Malaysian employee earning the average wage will need to toil for 95 years and 7 months to earn their first US$1 mil (RM4.4 mil), thus ranking the country in the 49thspot worldwide of 102 countries to reach the first US$1 mil.

According to a recent study by a study by Picodi.com, this is in stark contrast with its southern neighbour Singapore which sits in the second global ranking with 16 years and 11 months behind Switzerland whose citizens will earn their first million the fastest – 14 years and 3 months.

Nevertheless, this is still 53 years faster than India (which sits on the 62nd ranking with 148 years and five months) but behind Chinese workers who will earn their first million 17 years faster (42nd ranking at 78 years and nine months). However, there is a 70-year gap between Malaysia and Australia (eighth ranking at 24 years and three months).

But this is still 175 years faster than ASEAN neighbours Philippines (89th ranking at 270 years), Indonesia which is a rung higher at 88th spot with 247 years and five months, and Vietnam with 183 years and four months.

At the bottom of the ranking, US$1 mil is worth over 500 years of work in Nigeria (519 years and one month), Uganda (523 years and three months), Egypt (603 years and six months) and Pakistan (621 years and three months).



With regard to methodology and sources, Picodi.com said the average monthly net wage data was sourced from Numbeo where thousands of users worldwide monitor wages through monthly questionnaires (for Malaysia, the average monthly wage was deemed at RM3,904 as of April 2023).

That does sound like a 3-generation toil to reach the first USD1 million for an average Malaysian. And it may not be a happy outcome even if you secure the first USD1 million. Ask the millionaires!


Reference:

Average Malaysian need to work for over 95 years and 7 months to earn USD$1m (RM4.4m) Cheah Chor Sooi, Focus Malaysia, 13 April 2023


Wednesday 26 April 2023

Will the U.S.Dollar Collapse?

There has been a long-term trend toward currency diversification in global financial transactions and trade. The U.S. dollar, however, is not losing its dominance any time soon.

There has been speculation lately that the U.S. dollar is on the verge of a major decline and might even lose its status as the world's major reserve currency. "De-dollarization," or the movement away from using the U.S. dollar as the primary currency of exchange in global trade and investment, has become a hot topic in financial circles. It appears to stem from news that China is beginning to use the yuan in commodity trades with a handful of trading partners. Brazil and Argentina are exploring the potential for a common currency. Extrapolating these trends, the argument is that demand for dollars will fall, sending its value steeply lower.

This argument is really overblown. A long-term trend toward diversification of currencies in global financial transactions and trade may develop. But that’s a big leap from dollar dominance to de-dollarization.

While the dollar has declined over the past six months, it remains close to a 10-year high versus currencies of countries with which the U.S. trades. It also remains the primary currency used for trade and financial transactions in the global economy. The size of the recent non-dollar transactions that have raised this alarm are very small. Trade in yuan accounted for less than 2% of global trade in 2022.

There are few signs that major foreign holders are poised to suddenly shift away from U.S. dollars. Very few other currencies could take its place as a reserve currency. A gradual move to a global economy with a less-dominant dollar is possible. And the dollar losing its reserve currency status is not likely in the very near future.

Higher interest rates boosted returns to dollarbased investors. The combination of stronger economic recovery and higher yields helped push the dollar higher. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have grown since 2013, as shown in the chart

below:


Source: Bloomberg

International investment flows indicate that demand for U.S. dollars extends beyond U.S.

Treasury securities. With a resilient economy, the U.S. saw the largest inflow of foreign direct investment, long-term investment in businesses and property, of any major economy in 2022. Much of the increase in investment flows into the U.S. over the past few years has gone into equities.


Source: Bloomberg, monthly data as of 3/31/2023.

The dollar's position as the world's major reserve currency is periodically a source of concern among investors, even though its position hasn't changed much in decades. The dollar's share of global reserves has declined gradually over the past 20 years as central banks diversified their holdings, mostly into the euro since its introduction in 1999. Allocations of reserves to other currencies, such as the British pound and Canadian dollar, have gained modestly as well. Overall , however, the dollar still represents about 60% of global reserves, a modest decline from 67% 20 years ago.

While other major countries' markets have these qualities, the size and openness of the U.S. market is difficult to match. Europe's bond markets are more fragmented than the U.S. market although a movement toward euro-denominated sovereign debt issuance would provide a stronger base for it as an attractive alternative. Japan's bond market is closely controlled by its central bank, which owns the bulk of its government debt. China has capital controls, and its currency isn't even freely convertible. Giving up capital controls would mean that the government would relinquish control over investment flows and leave the currency susceptible to decline if domestic investors moved their money elsewhere.

Over the next six to 12 months, a moderate cyclical decline in the dollar is possible. The main driver is likely to be a greater convergence of interest rates in the major economies as the U.S. Federal Reserve nears the end of its rate hiking cycle

So, the YouTube podcasts and other media communication on the imminent collapse of the dollar is just drama or hype for now. But we in Malaysia should brace for a further rise in OPR to mitigate inflation and reduce the interest differential – that we leave to the wisdom of BNM.


Reference:

Will the U.S. dollar be dethroned? Kathy Jones, Bloomberg, 5 April 202




Tuesday 25 April 2023

EPF: Liquidity Crunch?

The Employees Provident Fund 5EPF6 has refuted speculations of a cash crunch crisis building up in the retirement funds. In a statement reported by Malaysiakini on 12 April 2023, the retirement savings fund said it has always maintained sufficient liquidity to meet all of its obligations. The sale and purchase of overseas assets are a normal part of the EPF’s investment operations as one of its asset allocation strategies, stressing that the move was not for the payment of premature withdrawals.

The EPF issued the statement to refute the speculations circulating via WhatsApp which referred to an article titled “Bank Negara says Malaysians could run out of savings 19 years too soon" published by an international daily on April 7.

Source: www.kwsp.gov.my

According to BNM, the median savings for the 51-55 age group would have only lasted five years upon withdrawal at 55, and that has dropped to around three years after the pandemic-related withdrawals. It further states that an average Malaysian would be at risk of depleting their retirement savings 19 years before death, with global life expectancy rising to above 77 years old by 2050.

Millennials in the 26-40 age group are likely to face significant financial challenges, as many of them are struggling to meet the EPF’s Basic Savings threshold of RM240,000.

As of March 2023, 70.5 percent out of the 7.2 million active formal sector members aged 18-55 years do not meet the EPF’s Basic Savings threshold by age, while 3.1 million or 39

percent of members who made special withdrawals and are below age 55 years as of January 2023 have not started rebuilding their savings. As such, their savings levels remain critically low with a median savings of RM890.

In addition, a total of 59,230 contributors have applied for EPF’s Account 2 Support Facility (FSA2) as of 12 April, with only 27,705 found to be eligible. This only applies to those above 40 years old.

FSA2 aims to help EPF members obtain personal financing from banking institutions. So far, two banks are participating in FSA2, namely MBSB and Bank Simpanan Nasional (BSN). It involves a maximum financing of RM50,000 (subject to EPF Account 2 balance) and a repayment period of up to 10 years. An applicant is required to have a minimum amount of RM3,000 in EPF Account 2.

EPF withdrawals are only allowed for housing, education, health, certain protection plans such as for chronic illnesses and a maximum of RM3,000 to cover haj cost.

We need a strong retirement fund, not one that is “raided” every time we have a crisis. The Government has to play a better role in funding those in dire straits. Knee-jerk reactions are not helpful. We could have a windfall tax on banks and energy companies or use the unclaimed money (RM11b) as a means to fund a special scheme for those eligible EPF members who need financial support. The advisory team of the PM could certainly help with this issue.


References:

EPF refutes allegations of cash crunch crisis, act amendment, Malaysiakini, 12 April 2023

Nearly 60,000 apply for EPF facility to support bank loans, FMT, 12 April 2023



Friday 21 April 2023

Project IRR and Equity IRR – Is there a Connection?

Sometimes calculating project IRR and equity IRR can be tricky. The internal rate of return (IRR) can be defined as the rate of return that makes the net present value (NPV) of all cash flows equal to zero. 

The calculation of the internal rate of return considering only the project cash flows (excluding the financing cash flows) gives us the project IRR. Consider a project with construction cost of say, $ 1,000,000 and annual rental income of $120,000. Assume the property will be sold in the 10th year for $ 1,607,023. You can construct the project cash flows and calculate the project IRR by using the Excel IRR formula. You can also download the excel spreadsheet for this calculation.


Calculation of the internal rate of return considering the cash flows net of financing gives us the equity IRR. It means the project is funded by a mix of debt and equity. If the project is fully funded by equity, the project IRR and equity IRR will be the same. If the project is fully funded by debt, the equity IRR simply doesn’t exist (or it’s infinite, since you didn’t put any money!)

Assume 30% of the project cost is funded by the equity and remaining 70% by the debt. Assume the cost of equity to be 14% and the cost of debt 8%. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) will be 9.8%. Note that the weighted average cost of capital will not affect equity IRR. It is only the cost of debt which matters. Assume the term of debt is 10 years.

You can project the cash flows for equity holders and calculate the equity IRR using the
same Excel formula as above. This is demonstrated below




In what circumstances the equity IRR will be lower than project IRR?

The equity IRR will be lower than the project IRR whenever the cost of debt exceeds the
project IRR. Note it is the cost of debt and not the weighted average cost of capital. See
below the relationship between the cost of debt and equity IRR.



In the above chart, when the cost of debt is equal to the project IRR, the equity IRR is equal to the project IRR.

What is this article about? There is some confusion for those in Government or some clients on the question of project and equity IRR for a project. If you are an investor, you may also find this article somewhat helpful.

Reference:
Project IRR and Equity IRR: a curious connection, Naiyer Jawaid, Feasibility Pro, 15 June 2013



Thursday 20 April 2023

81% of EPF Members Live Below Poverty Level After Retiring?

Currently, 81 percent of Employees Provident Fund (EPF) contributors will not have enough savings to live above the poverty line in their retirement.

Prime Minister and Finance Minister revealed that as of December 2022, only 19 percent of EPF contributors have reached the basic savings level. This is based on their age to enable them to have RM240,000 in savings by the age of 55. About 81 percent of contributors aged 55 and below are in a serious situation where their savings will not be enough for them to retire above the poverty level.


The PM said more than half (56 percent) of those who will be able to withdraw their EPF savings fully in a year – those who are 54 years old now – have RM50,000 or below in their retirement fund. About 81% EPF members cannot live above poverty level after retiring. If you have RM50,000, this can only provide retirement income of about RM208 a month for a period of 20 years.

As of Dec 31, 2022, more than 51 percent of the 13.1 million contributors below 55 years old have RM10,000 and below in their EPF funds. Of this amount, 26 percent are 40 years old and above, meaning those who can withdraw their retirement savings within 15 years. For this group, their EPF savings will only give them a retirement income of less than RM42 a month over a period of 20 years.

In his tabling of Budget 2023, the PM announced a plan that would allow contributors who are in dire straits to take up loans from a bank with collateral from their EPF. The loan scheme will not involve direct withdrawals from the contributors’ savings.

Having said that, the PM is not addressing the real issue - current or immediate requirements of contributors and their longer-term needs. If EPF is not used as collateral, then banks are going to be reluctant to lend. The Government needs a separate scheme/fund for this purpose. It can be like a “CGC” guarantee scheme but for personal loans. EPF should remain a retirement fund not a mortgage institution.

Reference: 
81pct EPF members cannot live above poverty level after retiring, Malaysiakini, 
11 April 2023

Wednesday 19 April 2023

Can We Re-do the MM2H?

Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) is now is serious trouble. The long-term residency programme for foreigners has a 90% drop in applicants following the new conditions imposed by the former Home Minister and current Opposition Leader.

MM2H had around 5,000 applicants a year between 2017 and 2019. New conditions introduced in 2021 (under the PN regime) included:

- Permanent savings of at least RM1 million (previously RM300,000)

- Liquid assets of at least RM1.5 million (previously RM500,000)

- An offshore income of at least RM40,000 a month, up from RM10,000


Although the new rules are being applied to new applicants, the existing holders have lost their trust with the Government (when the change was introduced it was applicable for both existing and new applicants).  Under the earlier scheme, a total 34,347 foreigners were granted the 10-year social visit pass, which is renewable. The then Government’s rationale for the change was to attract high quality participants. Only 267 new applications were received between September 2021 and June 2022. Some 1,461 holders pulled out of the programme. What a disaster!

Malaysia also introduced a cap on the total number of holders on the MM2H or Premium Visa Programme (PVIP) to no more than 1% of total Malaysian citizens. For the PVIP there is a fee of RM200,000 and an additional RM100,000 for each dependent. And this is how we attract talent into Malaysia?

If we want Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), then re-tune the PVIP fees to RM2,000 or lower!  The MM2H is a retirement programme, and a pensioner is expected to have RM40,000 a month as income?

Unless we change drastically, it is better to cancel these programmes and inform any FDIs to go to Indonesia or Vietnam. Or, perhaps each state (in Malaysia) could start its own MM2H. Sarawak and Sabah are able without Federal approval.

Could we ask the current Home Minister to revise both MM2H and the PVIP for the benefit of the nation? And forget about numbers, the total cannot exceed 0.1% of the total citizens of this country. That’s really small!

References:
Reigniting MM2H, Pankaj C. Kumar, The Star, 15 April 2023

MM2H damage done, trust is gone, say foreign residents, Pradeep Nambiar, FMT, 16 April 2023

Tuesday 18 April 2023

The Biggest Crash in Our Lifetime to Hit Between Now and Mid-June?

The founder of HS Dent Investment Management and author of several best-selling books, Harry Dent, warned that the biggest crash in our lifetime will likely happen by mid-June. He explained that the biggest crash that he is predicting is what the 2008-2009 crash should have been, noting that the S&P 500 was down 57% at that time. As much as 86% [decline] for the S&P 500 in this crash and 92% on the Nasdaq … Bitcoin will go down more like 95%, 96%, according to him. 

The economist has repeatedly warned about the biggest crash in a lifetime. He pointed out that after his previous warning, the Nasdaq went down 38% in October 2022

Source: www.youtube.com


According to Dent, we have not cleaned up the massive debts and overvaluations of the biggest financial assets bubble in everything. This bubble has not been allowed to burst and clear out its excesses.
Dent further explained that what looks like a correction will turn into “a crash more like 1929 to 1932, down 86% on the S&P 500,” emphasizing that it is his “best forecast at this time.” The economist clarified: “You get a first wave down, a second wave bounce which we’ve seen, we’re already into the third wave just starting.” The third wave is usually the strongest and hardest wave and most of that’s going to happen between now and the end of the year. And the biggest part of that third wave is going to hit between now and mid-June.
There are many doomsday economists these days – Nouriel Roubini is one of them. Nothing is certain. All we could do is to prepare for the perfect storm and trust in God to salvage us through and protect us from harm.

Reference:
Economist Harry Dent expects biggest crash in our lifetime to hit between now and mid-June, https://news.bitcoin.com

Monday 17 April 2023

Iskandar Film Studio Sold at “Fire-Sale” Price?

Film and TV production complex Iskandar Malaysia Studios (“IMS”) was recently valued at RM32 million, eight years since it was opened after an investment of between RM528m and RM748m. The entertainment news site Variety recently reported that Singaporean content provider GHY Culture & Media acquired IMS for a total of RM35.34m. 

IMS’s 2019 financial report revealed that it received RM250 million in government grants. Prepared by auditors Ernst & Young PLT, the 2019 financial report also mentioned that IMS saw a net loss of RM23.33 million. IMS’ accumulated losses amounted to RM306.3 million, while net current liabilities were stated as RM3.067 million. Despite the staggering losses, the “going concern assumption” was used in the financial report for IMS.


Source: https://iskandarputeri.com

IMS is a studio complex that spans 49 acres (19.8 hectares) Iskandar film studio sold to S'pore firm after losing 90pct value in Iskandar Puteri, Johor. It holds film stages, television

studios, water filming tanks, and production support facilities, among others. A number of notable productions were filmed at IMS, including Netflix’s Marco Polo series and portions of the film Crazy Rich Asians.

The IMS project was the result of a strategic agreement between the government’s investment arm Khazanah Nasional Bhd and the UK’s Pinewood Studios group. IMS’ holding company is Granatum Ventures Sdn Bhd which is itself a subsidiary of Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Bhd.

IMS was formerly called Pinewood Iskandar Malaysia Studios (PIMS) after the Pinewood Group entered into a partnership with the studio complex.

According to a report by Hollywood trade magazine Variety, PIMS’ construction cost was valued at RM528 million, while the total investment injected into the project was estimated to be RM748 million. A PIMS’ former director, said in 2014 that the studio was expected to contribute RM1.8 billion to the local economy. In 2019 Pinewood left the partnership, with a joint statement issued stating the collaboration ended through a mutual agreement.

We always get the short-end of our ventures. Taxpayers’ money is used to promote movies and movie-making. In the end, the sad story is like some Hindi or Korean production where the “hero” gets killed. 

It need not be this way if we are clear on what we can or want to do. It’s impossible if local movies are frowned upon for their costumes, language, or culture. That could also apply to a local set doing foreign movies.

So, why did we get into this mess? Someone’s brainchild to produce a Michelle Yeoh? And as most of us know Michelle Yeoh didn’t depend on Government support but pure grit and determination to win an Oscar. Maybe we should have done “The Wolf of Wall Street” in Malaysia?


References:

Iskandar Film Studio sold at “fire-sale” price? Malaysiakini, 7 April 2023

RM250 mil in grants for Iskandar studios before knock-down sale: EY report, Arjun Mohanakrishnan, www.thevibes.com, 9 April 2023



Friday 14 April 2023

Derivative Warrants: Types and Timing

Warrants are a derivative that give the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security—most commonly an equity—at a certain price before expiration. The price at which the underlying security can be bought or sold is referred to as the exercise price or strike price. An American warrant can be exercised at any time on or before the expiration date, while European warrants can only be exercised on the expiration date. Warrants that give the right to buy a security are known as call warrants; those that give the right to sell a security are known as put warrants. 

Warrants are in many ways similar to options, but a few key differences distinguish them. Warrants are generally issued by the company itself, not a third party, and they are traded over-the-counter more often than on an exchange. Investors cannot write warrants like they can options.

Unlike options, warrants are dilutive. When an investor exercises their warrant, they receive newly issued stock, rather than already-outstanding stock. Warrants tend to have much longer periods between issue and expiration than options, of years rather than months.

Warrants do not pay dividends or come with voting rights. Investors are attracted to warrants as a means of leveraging their positions in a security, hedging against downside (for example, by combining a put warrant with a long position in the underlying stock), or exploiting arbitrage opportunities. 

Warrants are no longer common in the United States but are heavily traded in Hong Kong, Germany, and other countries. 

Traditional warrants are issued in conjunction with bonds, which in turn are called warrant-linked bonds, as a sweetener that allows the issuer to offer a lower coupon rate. These warrants are often detachable, meaning that they can be separated from the bond and sold on the secondary markets before expiration. A detachable warrant can also be issued in conjunction with preferred stock.

Wedded or wedding warrants are not detachable, and the investor must surrender the bond or preferred stock the warrant is "wedded" to in order to exercise it. 

Covered warrants are issued by financial institutions rather than companies, so no new stock is issued when covered warrants are exercised. Rather, the warrants are "covered" in that the issuing institution already owns the underlying shares or can somehow acquire them. The underlying securities are not limited to equity, as with other types of warrants, but may be currencies, commodities, or any number of other financial instruments. 

A debt warrant is an agreement in which a lender has a right to buy equity in the future at a price established when the warrant was issued or in the next round.

Many venture debt lenders require warrants and expect roughly half of their total returns will come from warrants (and half from interest payments). If your startup does well, the warrant can be worth a lot of money to the lender. A debt warrant works similar to an incentive stock option for employees. Warrants have the potential to make the holder a large profit very quickly if the price of the company’s stock is much higher than the price at which the warrant holder is permitted to buy it.

Warrants generally trade at a premium, which is subject to time decay as the expiration date nears. As with options, warrants can be priced using the Black Scholes model. Remember warrants are rights to own stock and not immediate capital for a company. Dilution is an important consideration. Typically shareholders are only inclined to dilute their holding up to 5% of their original capital. Otherwise, holders of warrants become key investors!


References:

Derivative Warrants explained: Types and example, James Chen, Investopedia/Xiaojie Liu, 20 May 2022

What are Debt Warrants and how do they work for start-ups? Lighter Capital


Thursday 13 April 2023

Lebanon Has Two-time Zones?

For the first time ever, millions of people in a small country are suddenly going by two different time zones, due to a disagreement between Lebanon's political and religious authorities over daylight saving. Nobody quite knows what time it is in Lebanon. 

The Mediterranean country of roughly 6 million should have re-scheduled its clocks back an hour for daylight saving. It does every year along with much of the wider region and Europe. This time, however, there was a last-minute objection. 


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org


The holy month of Ramadan, practiced by a major proportion of Lebanon's population and falls across March and April in 2023. Daylight saving would mean that sunset falls around 7 p.m. rather than 6 p.m., making practicing Muslims go an additional hour before they can break their fast and eat and drink again. A few days before the clocks were to be set back, Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and parliament speaker Nabih Berri decided that daylight saving should be postponed until April 21. This move is widely seen as an act of support for Muslims observing Ramadan. The country's leadership is divided between Sunni and Shia Muslims and Christians.

Lebanon's Maronite church, the largest Christian institution in the country, objected, saying they were not consulted and that such a last-minute change would cause chaos in the country and put it at odds with international standards.

The result? For the first time ever, millions of people in one small country are going by two different time zones.

At Beirut international airport, the scheduling board for departing flights showed two different times for the exact same flight: Flight A3 947 to Athens, for example, was listed twice, shown as departing at both 3:30 and 4:30 p.m. 

Muslim institutions and parties seemed intent to follow Mikati's lead and remain on the winter time zone. Many Christian institutions said they would abide by daylight saving time. Major Lebanese news outlets LBCI and MTV said they would also move their clocks forward. Middle East Airlines, meanwhile — Lebanon's flagship carrier — "said its clocks would stay in winter time but it would adjust its flight times to keep in line with international schedules.”

The confusion presented yet another challenge, a tragic comedy — as the Lebanese people are already dealing with skyrocketing inflation, a nearly-collapsed currency, daily power cuts and general state dysfunction.

All is not lost, Mikati now says Lebanon's cabinet had voted to rectify the issue and move the clocks forward by one hour.  That decision had been taken after a "calm discussion." The clock times are just a symptom of a very divided nation. Once seen as an idyllic paradise, it has become a hotbed of sectarian violence. Pray that we will not come to this!

Reference:
Lebanon wakes up in tow simultaneous time zones as government can’t agree on daylight saving change, Natasha Turak,  CNBC, 27 March 2023

Wednesday 12 April 2023

Should We Bring Back GST...Ultimately?

The goods and services tax (GST) will ultimately need to be reintroduced to boost Malaysia’s revenue, according to Sunway University professor of economics Prof. Yeah Kim Leng. The tax base is broadened, with a stronger focus on consumption over income tax and combined with increased government spending efficiency, it will put in place a growth-based taxation system, said Dr Yeah, a member of an advisory body to Finance Minister.

The revenue generated through Malaysia’s current taxation system was insufficient to keep up with government spending. With increased government expenditure for health, education and social protection (to care for the ageing population), GST is seen as a solution.


Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org


In February, Economy Minister acknowledged that the government may implement the GST “when the time is right”. The tax was abolished in 2018 by the Pakatan Harapan government three years after it was introduced at a 6% rate.

GST is a tax on the value added at each stage of the production distribution chain and is generically known worldwide as Value Added Tax (VAT). GST has been prescribed as a panacea for all economies facing revenue shortfalls by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). About 160 countries have adopted the GST or some variation of it.

This experiment could not be replicated in Malaysia. With the bulk of the population spending a higher proportion of their income on consumption and only 15 per cent of the 14.6 million workers paying income tax, a GST accompanied by a reduction in personal income tax hit poorer consumers with a “double whammy”. They paid more taxes via consumption (thanks to the broader base of the GST relative to the limited base of the then prevailing SST), but enjoyed no benefits from the lowered income taxation since they were outside the income tax net to begin with.

On the other hand, richer consumers probably enjoyed a “double dividend” — lower consumption taxes as a proportion of total income (since consumption expenditure as a proportion of income typically falls as income increases) and greater relief from income taxes.

For Malaysia GST was not revenue neutral and it was never intended to be. The purpose of the exercise was to generate much-needed revenue. It covered 60 per cent of all the goods and services in the basket of goods used to compute the CPI. Thus, while the abolition of the SST resulted in an estimated loss of revenue of RM17.1 billion (in 2014), the GST brought in revenue of RM27 billion in the first nine months of its implementation in April 2015. In 2016, the GST generated RM38.5 billion, and RM44 billion in 2017. This implies consumers forked out RM27 billion more for goods and services in 2017 than they did in 2014. Thus, it is not hard to see that the GST did impact the general price level.

It must be added that there are enough examples of countries that have rescinded the GST soon after introducing it. At least four countries abolished the GST — Malta, Grenada, Ghana and Belize (British Honduras). 

Hong Kong is an example of an economy that decided against implementing the GST, after six months of debate from July 2006 to December 2006. There is some evidence to suggest that even China may be contemplating replacing the GST with a Retail Sales Tax.

If Malaysia plans to re-introduce GST in the future, the following points might be noted. 

(i) It must introduce a revenue-neutral GST initially;

(ii) It is important to set the sales threshold for registration for GST high enough so that small businesses will not be affected. An annual sales turnover of RM2.5 million (or more) would be more appropriate than the RM500,000 level set in 2015. 

(iii) GST is appropriate when the bulk of the population earns incomes high enough to be taxed via income tax. Only then will concessions on the income tax side reduce the bite of the tax on the consumption side.

(iv) It follows from (iii) that Malaysia is then considered a developed nation, which hopefully is by 2026; and

(v) The inequality within our system needs to be addressed – not a Gini coefficient of 0.4 but something below 0.35, at least.

So, ultimately GST may need to be re-introduced but the conditions are not yet conducive for the next 3-5 years.

References:
Ultimately, we must bring back GST, says economist, Tsubasa Nair, FreeMalaysiaToday, 1April 2023

Why the GST failed, Dr Suresh P.P. Narayanan, New Straits Times, 12 August 2018


Tuesday 11 April 2023

Singapore: Expat Staff Moving Out?

Half of expatriates in Singapore have been hit by rental increases of more than 40 per cent. About seven in 10 businesses are ready to relocate their staff out of Singapore. This is if there is no relief from rising operating costs.

A survey conducted by the European Chamber of Commerce, Singapore (EuroCham), was aimed at assessing the extent and severity of the impact of rising costs of rental on business operations in Singapore.


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org


The findings warned that the situation is “not sustainable”. If business costs do not fall or the Government doesn’t step in to help, then “Singapore will lose its attractiveness to foreign companies which will decide to relocate their offices to neighbouring countries”.

The survey was done in collaboration with 14 European national business groups, the Singapore International Chamber of Commerce, the British Chamber of Commerce Singapore and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Singapore. In all, 268 local and international businesses operating in Singapore, which are members of these chambers of commerce, responded to the survey.

The survey found that 50 per cent of employees who have had to renew their residential housing lease in 2023 or in 2022 had faced rental increases of more than 40 per cent. Another 36 per cent found that the hike was between 20 to 40 per cent.

As many as 62 per cent either received less than S$1,500 a month or nothing at all from their companies to offset the rent increase. Beyond economic impact, 97 per cent of the companies surveyed indicated that employees exhibited visible anxiety and psychological distress over rising costs of residential rental in Singapore.

Asked to indicate the most important factors that have led to an increase in operational costs, 22 per cent of respondents cited “increased cost of rental: residential allowance for employees”. General cost increase due to inflation came in a close second at 21 per cent, followed by rising salaries (18 per cent).

On how badly the business has been affected by rising costs of residential rental, more than half, or 53 per cent, gave a rating of four or five on a five-point scale — with five being the most badly affected.
Given the rising costs of operations, 69 per cent of companies indicated they would be ready to relocate their personnel out of Singapore.

One reason that Singapore is expensive is the large number of businesses and people that want to remain in Singapore. But regional cities are catching up in terms of quality of manpower, infrastructure and quality of life.

To remain competitive, Singapore has to maintain a particular niche or competitiveness so that people still want to be in Singapore regardless of these costs. That needs administrative and business skills to turn Singapore into a niche, premium centre for services, manufacturing and commerce. Meanwhile, it is an opportunity for Malaysia to seek out these businesses and relocate them. Will MIDA or MITI do that?

Reference:
Survey: Amid soaring rentals, seven in ten Singapore firms ready to move expat staff overseas, The Malay Mail, 27 March 2023


Monday 10 April 2023

LRT Service (from Bandaraya to Sentul Timur) Suspended!

The LRT service between the Bandaraya and Sentul Timur stations was suspended from April 2. At least six stations are affected. Rapid Rail Sdn Bhd said shuttle bus services will be provided between the stations but advised commuters to use alternative modes of transport. The six stations on the Ampang-Sri Petaling LRT line includes the Bandaraya, Sultan Ismail, PWTC, Titiwangsa, Sentul and Sentul Timur stations.

Rapid Rail said the trains had been unable to return to the depot in Ampang since Jan 27 following the structural damage near the Bandaraya station. Forty shuttle buses have been deployed to ferry commuters between Masjid Jamek to Sentul Timur and Masjid Jamek to Titiwangsa. On Jan 27, the Ampang LRT line experienced delays due to a “kinked track alignment” near the Bandaraya station. Checks found that this was caused by damage to a flyover structure carrying rail tracks due to construction works adjacent to the area. The disruption is set to last, at least, up to September 2023.

Subsequently, Transport Minister said the disruption to the Ampang LRT line between the Bandaraya and Masjid Jamek stations is set to last until around September. This is neither the first nor the only train service in trouble. 

Trains on Putrajaya MRT line are running slower and being manually driven between the Kg Batu and Kentonmen station according to Rapid KL. The new 57.7-km line was launched mid-March by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, connecting Kwasa Damansara and Putrajaya Sentral.  It has 36 stations, nine of which are underground, and 10 of which are interchange stations for passengers to transfer to the Light Rail Transit, Express Rail Link, and Komuter rail systems. The system is fully automatic and driverless, but the trains can also be manually driven if necessary. The slower service is attributed to problems with the track switch.


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org


In early March 2023, Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) had to suspend its aerotrain services at KLIA after a breakdown that involved 114 passengers, forcing passengers to walk 400m on the train tracks. MAHB is expected to obtain new trains by 2025 under the RM700 million aerotrain replacement programme. A total of 18 shuttle buses, each accommodating 40 passengers, are being made available 24 hours a day.

New trains or old trains, they are all breaking down. This is a malaise when proper maintenance or commissioning is not done. We want consumers to use public transport. But when they switch to public transport, they are “put-off” by breakdowns. We need 99% reliability for our trains not the “kissing” ones or the “cuddling” ones. Just simple, straightforward services. I find it hard to understand why 25-year-old aerotrains don’t work. With proper overhaul, its service life can be extended by another ten years. Otherwise, during Covid pandemic, MAHB management should have bought new train sets or leased similar workable sets (from Orlando, Florida?).

Now, we have tracks but no trains connecting the satellite building to the Main Terminal. Buses are a stop-gap; bullock carts are better for tourism? Maybe we could get MAHB management to use bicycles for a week as their official transport vehicles, then they could become more responsible?

References:
Slower trains on part of new Putrajaya MRT due to track switch issue, The Vibes, 
23 March 2023

LRT service from Bandaraya to Sentul Timur suspended from April 2, FMT reporters, 30 March 2023

KLIA aerotrain breakdowns have tarnished Malaysia’s image, says Loke, Hana Naz Harun, Qistina Sallehuddin, New Straits Times, 8 March 2023

Friday 7 April 2023

What Went Wrong at Credit Suisse?

UBS acquired Credit Suisse at £2.65bn – significantly below its closing value of around £7bn. Espionage, fraud, money laundering, controversial clients – you name it and chances are the bank was involved.

In March 2021, the bank was involved in the collapse of Greensill Capital, and then the downfall of Archegos Capital – both of which cost it billions in losses. Then in October of that year, the bank was fined $350m and pled guilty to wire fraud after it was found to have issued unaccounted loans to Mozambique in what became known as the “tuna bonds” scandal.  In June 2022 the bank was found guilty of and fined for its involvement in money laundering relating to a Bulgarian drugs ring.


Source:https://www.businessinsider.com


In February 2023,  Credit Suisse confirmed clients had pulled billions in funds in the fourth quarter (2022), which when combined with legal and restructuring costs, lead to its biggest annual loss since the financial crisis. The lender revealed a 7.3bn Swiss francs (£6.6bn) net loss for 2022, wiping out a decade of profits. 

Then the Saudi National Bank, the bank’s top backer, said it could not give more money to Credit Suisse due to regulatory constraints. That spooked investors. Severe outflows followed, which prompted the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to offer a $54bn credit line.  Regulators then spent a weekend negotiating a takeover by UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank. UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for £2.65bn.

Credit Suisse’s clients are mostly wealthy individuals and businesses, not everyday savers. But the repercussions of its collapse have rocked markets. That raised further concerns about the banking sector. Holders of risky Credit Suisse debt saw their investment wiped out after the government wrote down the value of these bonds to zero, resulting in a £14bn loss.

In theory, this disaster is now contained. But with rising interest rates more banks may become vulnerable. That requires central banks to be vigilant. A systemic failure will lead to a severe depression not recession. And that must be the focus of Ministers of Finance and/or Governors of central banks. We can’t afford that. Meanwhile, every step to build confidence in banks is certainly a welcome move.

For Credit Suisse, the Board/Management must have seen it coming. Pursuit of profit at all cost will lead inevitably to disaster. And the people most affected are depositors, employees, bondholders and shareholders – in that order.

Reference:
What happened to Credit Suisse? Nicole Garcia Merida, https://moneyweek.com, 22 March 2023


Thursday 6 April 2023

War in Ukraine: Lives and Livelihoods!

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused the greatest humanitarian crisis in Europe since the Second World War. Thousands of lives have been lost, and millions of livelihoods have been disrupted through displacement, lost homes, and lost incomes (see below). 


Source: McKinsey

As in any conflict, uncertainty is high. It is unclear how the military situation, the political process, and the countermeasures around the world will play out. However, it is already certain that, as a consequence of the economic impact of the crisis on energy and food markets, disruptions will affect many in Europe and beyond.

The invasion of Ukraine is causing a massive humanitarian crisis. In addition to the pain and suffering experienced by those inside Ukraine, there are already more than three million people seeking refuge in neighbouring nations, with similar numbers displaced within Ukraine. As in other major conflicts and refugee crises—including those in Syria and Yemen—it will be a gargantuan task for the world community to aid, shelter, and host these unfortunate people.

The vulnerable will suffer the most. Vulnerable populations are most likely to become refugees and will find it hardest to bear the rising costs of food and fuel. Aid efforts are under way globally to ensure that people’s basic needs for food, shelter, and psychological safety are met, in and beyond the conflict zone. 

The impact of the Ukraine war has been on energy policy, food security, competition heightened for critical materials, supply chain disruptions, financial system ripples and step-up defence investments by NATO and the U.S. But most of all we see volatility, uncertainty, lives lost and disrupted.

Many business leaders are trying to move their organizations from ad hoc reactions to each disruption to a foundation of greater resilience. The key is to stay alert to what is over the horizon and building capabilities to continually manage uncertainty. Although we in Malaysia are far from the conflict, the ripple effects impact our economy and political landscape. Nimble, resilient and practical steps will keep our lives and livelihoods safe.

Reference:

War in Ukraine: Lives and livelihoods lost and disrupted, Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Olivia White, Ezra Greenberg, Mihir Mysore, Arvind Govindarajan, and Eric Chewning, McKinsey, 17 March 2022



Wednesday 5 April 2023

Is Khazanah Nasional on a Decline?

Khazanah Nasional Bhd, as a sovereign wealth fund, cannot avoid comparison with Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd, its peer across the Causeway.  Khazanah's inception in 1994 was to help grow Malaysia's long-term wealth. As Temasek gets stronger, Khazanah has seen muted in its performance over the years. This was probably blighted by "bad" investments and huge asset impairments.

An example: Khazanah's 2018 impairments stood at RM7.3 billion, with roughly half going towards sustaining Malaysia Airlines. But Temasek had a 20-year head start. It kicked off in 1974 with an initial portfolio of S$354 million in assets previously held by the Singapore government.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org



Temasek ended the financial year to March 31, 2022 with a net portfolio value of S$403 billion, revenue of S$134.9 billion versus S$110.9 billion in financial year 2021 and S$10 billion in net profit.

Khazanah, which was seeded with RM2.6 billion in government assets at birth, performed better in 2022 than in 2021, but was way off from 2020. Its profit from operations rose to RM1.6 billion in 2022 from RM670 million in 2021. But this was much lower than the RM2.9 billion profit posted in 2020, already a 61 per cent slump from the preceding year. Khazanah recorded an all-time-high realisable asset value of RM157 billion in 2017, which grew 8.2 per cent over 2016. The realisable asset value, a key indicator of financial performance, slipped to RM122.5 billion last year.

Should taxpayers be worried about this? Are Khazanah's assets severely depleted after years of divestment? Were the divestments intended to boost Khazanah's dividend to the government? Does Khazanah have enough resources for asset rebuilding? Will Khazanah borrow more to partially fund growth? Will the government inject fresh capital into Khazanah?

The fund's investments were RM3.3 billion in 2019, RM9.7 billion in 2020, RM8.7 billion in 2021 and RM6.6 billion in 2022. The investments shrank in the last two years. Khazanah's investments portfolio achieved a poor four-year return of 2.2 per cent amid volatile global markets. Last year saw a negative 5.5 per cent return.

To be fair, 2022 was extremely challenging for global markets, with rising inflation, aggressive monetary tightening and the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. It was similar three years before due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Khazanah blamed the negative performance in 2022 on global market downturn, aligned to declines in MSCI EM Asia, S&P 500 and FBM KLCI indices at -22.8 per cent, -19.5 per cent and -4.6 per cent, respectively.

The major listed companies in Khazanah's portfolio are some of the largest and most important in Malaysia. They include Axiata Group Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Tenaga Nasional Bhd, Telekom Malaysia Bhd and Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd.

Khazanah took over Malaysia Airlines under a five-year RM6 billion turnaround plan launched in 2014. But the carrier's financial problems began years before. A case in point is the 2002 wide asset unbundling exercise for the now-defunct Malaysian Airlines System Bhd after the government took over the loss-making airline from Tan Sri Tajuddin Ramli. Before the last capital injection in 2021, worth RM3.6 billion until 2025, Khazanah and the government had reportedly pumped in RM28 billion to keep Malaysia Airlines afloat.

A stronger Khazanah will be a big catalyst for Malaysia's long-term wealth and socio-economic development. And it can only do this if it were to operate without political interference. When vested interests or strategic interests begin to matter, return to investment could become nebulous!

Reference:
Is Khazanah Nasional’s Star Dimming? Zuraimi Abdullah, New Straits Times,  23 March 2023


Tuesday 4 April 2023

How Many Migrant Workers in Malaysia?

One of the enduring mysteries in Malaysia is the number of migrant workers. The official figure is 2.1 million. But that may not be true. This figure is important because it will tell us the magnitude of the problem. Getting a proper grasp of the problem is key to lifting living standards for most Malaysians 

In 1983 Dr Mahathir Mohamad took the route of cheap labour and low value-added industry to fuel growth. In late 2014, then human resources minister said that there were 2.1 million documented migrant workers and 4.6 million undocumented, making a total of 6.7million.  About 70 percent of migrant workers were undocumented! This figure was based on mobile phone data which indicate a high degree of accuracy.

Source: https://www.wikiimpact.com



In a paper by Lee Hwok-Aun and Khor Yu Leng, published in April 2018 the estimated the minimum number of migrant workers at about 3.85 million and “possibly around 5.5 million”. That distorts economic performance considerably. If we use the 6.7 million figure - that implies an additional 4.7 million workers to the legal workforce of 15 million.

Worker productivity will be much higher because 4.7 million workers are not recognised, distorting the figure upwards. Also, understating the population by 4.7 million pushes the per capita income higher by the same percentage. We have misleading data on labour and migrant workers which then distorts all policy initiatives on labour, productivity, wages and other related issues.

Malay poverty, and the poverty of other Malaysians are due to governments failing to address the data capture issue, and it starts with Mahathir. And these same people now talk of Malay poverty, ignoring their role for the situation in the first place. To rectify we need to do the following:
 
(i) Get the data right and be brave to face the situation. We need valid estimates of migrant labour - both documented and undocumented. Only then we have a plan to reduce migrant labour, over a period.

(ii) Employers must be incentivised to automate, innovate and optimise operations for higher productivity. 

When we do the above then our policies will match the data and we are on the road to a developed nation.

Reference:

Comment: Just how many migrant workers are there in Malaysia? P Gunasegaran, Malaysiakini, 21 March 2023

Monday 3 April 2023

Europe’s Energy Hypocrisy!

Germany made global news recently when its government approved the demolition of a wind farm for the expansion of a strip-mining operation. The lignite operation will be used to supply formerly mothballed coal power plants being reactivated.

The governments of Europe have apparently forgotten that the 18th century de-forestation of its continent and other parts of the world was one of the key drivers behind the transition to burning coal for heating, cooking and transportation purposes. Today, in their zeal to get to their somewhat arbitrary “net-zero by 2050” climate goals, European leaders are turning back to this medieval energy technology to burnish their ESG scores.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. exported almost 664 thousand tons of biomass in August of this year, most of it in the form of wood pellets bound for Europe. The cutting of forests in the U.S. for this purpose is most heavily concentrated in the Southeastern region of the country.

Amongst all this, the Ukraine war has impacted global crude oil prices, which surged amid supply disruptions and sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies. Apart from being the world's biggest natural gas exporter, Russia is the second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and a member of the Opec producer group that decided to cut output. Putin said that Russia planned to hold oil production and exports at current levels until 2025 and that Moscow would not cede its leading position in the global energy market despite Western sanctions.

Russian oil imports into the European Union and United Kingdom fell 35% to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 2.6 million bpd in January. But according to International Energy Agency (IEA), EU is the biggest purchaser of Russian crude oil.

This comes even as the EU has said that it will ban importing Russian oil from December 5 2022. It plans to ban seaborne imports of Russian oil with a phase-in period of six months for crude oil and eight months for refined products. The ban will most likely create a shortage of oil due to a general lack of spare crude volumes in the world. This would in total cover about 90% of Russian oil imports to the EU.

According to a report by Reuters, so far imports from the US have replaced about half the 800,000 barrels of lost Russian imports, with Norway providing around a third. Outside the EU, Russia's top crude oil export markets are China, India and Turkey.




As Europe’s mostly self-inflicted energy crisis spreads its ancillary impacts across the globe, the apparent hypocrisy present in these and other policy actions is becoming more than some developing nations leaders are willing to quietly bear. President Musevini points to another example of these conflicting priorities in his message to COP 27: “Now with Europe reinvesting in its own fossil fuel power industry to bring mothballed power plants back online, in a truly perverse twist we are told new Western investment in African fossil fuels is possible—but only for oil and gas resources that will be piped and shipped to Europe. This is the purest hypocrisy.”
It is a compelling point that is becoming increasingly difficult to argue against. As Europe continues to export its energy crisis to other nations that lack the financial resources to compete, fewer are going to be willing to try. Double standards and hypocrisy are the hallmarks of the West. And they like to preach to others about sanctions on Russia or Iran but quietly trade with them. Don’t they remember, it was also U.S. sanctions on Japan that started the conflict in the Asia-Pacific region resulting in WW2?

References:
Europe’s energy hypocrisy attracts increasing notice, David Blackmon, Forbes, 21 Nov 2022

Nearly eight months into Ukraine war, EU still biggest buyer of Russian crude, Times of India, 12 Oct 2022