Do We Need MRT3?

Decision-makers were very quick to seize the opportunity for an off-budget project called MRT3 on the pretext that a public transport system was required urgently to tackle Klang Valley’s road congestion. This was the view of columnist and transport expert, Rosli Khan (FMT, 21 August 2022).

The argument by policymakers was that the passenger demand will be created by the car owners and users once it is built. This is Say’s Law. How simplistic. Is urban passenger demand derived in this manner?

Source: https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com

The allocations for the project have been made on an off-budget basis, similar to the approach taken for 1MDB, MRT1, MRT2, LRT and ECRL, meaning the budgets did not go through parliament for debate and approval. Some are asking if this is another LCS (littoral combat ship) controversy in the making.

The crux of the matter is, why are we continuing to prop up Klang Valley but not the rest of the country?

Every new piece of infrastructure, KVDT, LRT, MRT, Merdeka 118, TRX, is concentrated in the Klang Valley.  Other parts of the country are not important?  Go to Lawas or Limbang and see its condition!

Penang and Johor Bharu are equally congested, partly due to poor planning and excessive land development.  Most of the plans are car-centric and lack focus on public transport.

There are also neglected areas like Kota Kinabalu and Kuching which are rapidly growing in terms of property development but receive scant attention when it comes to public transport infrastructure and facilities. Mobility issues remain high on the development agenda for these areas.

Klang Valley has received massive spending on basic infrastructure including electricity, water supply and 5G communication facilities. On top of that there are the LRT2 extension and LRT3 on which more than RM40 billion was spent in the last 10 years. In the scramble to spend public funds, MRT1 was developed at a cost of more than RM50 billion in the same period.

It was conceived on the poor assumption that this particular line would serve about 400,000 passengers a day. Or was this pre-meditated optimistic forecast for securing financing or political support?

The same team also predicted that road congestion along this corridor would be a thing of the past once MRT1 was up and running. Today, this is hardly the case.

MRT1 struggles to attract 100,000 passengers daily while traffic congestion along the corridor prevails and commuters are up in arms over poor facilities despite the massive amount of public funds being spent.

At many stations there are still no car parks, in contrast to the “park and ride” concept that the original planners talked about. Despite all the shortfalls experienced by MRT1, the decision-makers went ahead with MRT2 construction and now, we are faced with MRT3. This is at an estimated cost of RM1 billion per kilometre (hence over RM50 billion in total cost).

After almost four years, this brand new piece of infrastructure (MRT1) is still not functioning at full capacity. Broken escalators, faulty lifts and systems failure are common. Even LRTs have maintenance issues. If you want an example, go to Bangsar LRT station, the escalators are always in a state of disrepair.

Instilling a strong maintenance culture among the Malaysian staff and workers, and training them towards this, must be given the main priority at all rail networks.

Although it can be deduced that rail is the transport of the future, there is no point in building more LRT or MRT facilities if Malaysians cannot maintain the current ones well.

In addition, let us “level-up” development in regions like Sabah and Sarawak. Why do we take their resources and build-up the Kelang Valley?

Reference:

Is there a need for MRT3? Rosli Khan, FMT, 21 August 2022

The Plight of the Elderly!

The World Health Organization lists the following key points of elderly people:

•Around 1 in 6 people 60 years and older experienced some form of abuse in community settings during the past year (2021). 

•Rates of abuse of older people are high in institutions such as nursing homes and long-term care facilities, with 2 in 3 staff reporting that they have committed abuse in the past year.

•Rates of abuse of older people have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.

•Abuse of older people can lead to serious physical injuries and long-term psychological consequences.

•Abuse of older people is predicted to increase as many countries are experiencing rapidly ageing populations.

•The global population of people aged 60 years and older will more than double, from 900 million in 2015 to about 2 billion in 2050.

 

Source: https://ln.edu.hk

The abuse of older people, also known as elder abuse, is a single or repeated act, or lack of appropriate action, occurring within any relationship where there is an expectation of trust, which causes harm or distress to an older person. This type of violence constitutes a violation of human rights and includes physical, sexual, psychological and emotional abuse; financial and material abuse; abandonment; neglect; and serious loss of dignity and respect.

Many countries around the world have started initiatives to protect their senior citizens by introducing laws to shield them from discrimination and neglect by family members.

In Malaysia, more than 2,000 senior citizens in the country were abandoned by their family members (between 2018 – 2022) and this is only those left in hospitals. The actual figure for all neglected seniors in the country is unknown. Among the reasons given were family problems and lack of guardians, while some children even denied knowledge of the senior citizens referred to them. Illnesses such as dementia; psychiatric conditions; socio-economic factors such as financial difficulties or stressed and overburdened caregivers might pose special challenges for families to care for the elderly.

Malaysia began the transition into an ageing society in 2020, with more than seven per cent of the country's population having reached the age of 65 and above.

The rate of ageing is expected to increase in the coming years and the share of the population aged 65 and above is projected to double to 14 per cent by 2044 and reach 20 per cent by 2056, according to the World Bank's estimate.

Singapore introduced Maintenance of Parents Act 1995, which made it legal for parents to require their children to pay for their maintenance. Every tier of society, from family to community and the state, shares the burden of taking care of the elderly. Its Retirement and Re-employment Act 1993 protects the elderly from being discriminated against when they apply for a job after retirement age.

The Malaysian Government has drafted the Senior Citizens Bill which is being examined currently by relevant stakeholders. There is a need, of course, to examine the problems faced by children in looking after their parents and also to understand parents’ inability to meet their own financial/medical needs after retirement.

References:

Expert: Mandate kids to care for parents, Arfa Yunus, Qistina Sallehuddin, New Straits Times, July 27 , 2022

The plight of elderly abandoned in hospitals: Where do we go from here, Malaysia? Bernie Yeo, Focus Malaysia, July 27, 2022

Abuse of older people, World Health Organization, June 13, 2022

2022: A Year of Hunger?

As many as 828 million people go to bed hungry every night, the number of those facing acute food insecurity has soared - from 135 million to 345 million - since 2019. A total of 50 million people in 45 countries are on the edge of famine.

While needs are high, resources have hit rock bottom. The World Food Programme (WFP) requires US$22.2 billion to reach 152 million people in 2022. However, with the global economy reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic, the gap between needs and funding is bigger than before. 

Source: https://www.downtoearth.org.in

But why is the world hungrier than ever? This seismic hunger crisis has been caused by a deadly combination of four factors:

• Conflict is still the biggest driver of hunger, with 60 percent of the world's hungry living in areas afflicted by war and violence. Events unfolding in Ukraine are further proof of how conflict feeds hunger, forcing people out of their homes and wiping out their sources of income.

• Climate shocks destroy lives, crops and livelihoods, and undermine people’s ability to feed themselves.

• The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are driving hunger to unprecedented levels.

• Costs are also at an all-time high: WFP’s monthly operating costs are US$73.6 million above their 2019 average – a staggering 44 percent rise. The extra now spent on operating costs would have previously fed 4 million people for one month.

From the Central American Dry Corridor and Haiti, through the Sahel, Central African Republic, South Sudan and then eastwards to the Horn of Africa, Syria, Yemen and all the way to Afghanistan, there is a ring of fire stretching around the world where conflict and climate shocks are driving millions of people to starvation.

In countries like Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen, WFP is already faced with hard decisions, including cutting rations to be able to reach more people. This is tantamount to taking from the hungry to feed the starving. 

Levels of humanitarian and development assistance must be stepped up to allow WFP to continue its life-saving work in emergencies but also to build the ability of families and communities to feed themselves and break their dependence on humanitarian support. 

Evidence shows this approach pays dividends. In just three years to 2021, WFP and local communities turned 272,000 acres of barren fields in the Sahel region of five African countries into productive farmland, changing the lives of over 2.5 million people and contributing to peace and stability. In Bangladesh in 2020, WFP supported 145,000 people with cash assistance ahead of severe forecast flooding. This empowered them to buy food and medicine, protect critical assets and transport livestock and families to safe places, preventing losses and damages. This cut the emergency response cost by over half.

However, to achieve Zero Hunger, money is not enough. Only political will can end conflicts in places like Yemen, Syria, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Ukraine. And without a firm political commitment to contain global warming , the main drivers of hunger will continue unabated. 

Reference:

A Global Food Crisis, The World Food Programme

My Merdeka Wishlist

Many Malaysians will be celebrating Merdeka this year satisfied that justice has finally been served on the biggest scandal in Malaysian history. This is after former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak was finally sent to jail after he lost his final appeal at the Federal Court over the SRC International RM42 mil case.

Malaysians can also celebrate the passing of the historic anti-party hopping constitutional amendment earlier this month. However, there remains lots of “unfinished business”.

1. Merdeka from Discrimination

After more than 65 years of independence it is time for Malaysia to move from race-based affirmative action to a needs-based one. In addition, we should subscribe to meritocracy and equal opportunities for all.

Our civil service and branches of Government should reflect the racial composition of the nation and not “skewed” in its present form.

Race-based parties and raced-based policies/politics are to be discouraged. An independent Anti-Discrimination Commission (like Suhakam) will try to reduce the unwarranted tensions created by narrow bigoted politics. The Department of National Unity should be disbanded with the formation of the independent Commission.

2. Merdeka from “Shackled” Education

The National Education Policy has succeeded in “churning-out” graduates who are not tuned to current or future-market conditions. If we want to implement IR 4.0, then we are willing to bespoke of our education system to the needs of the future.

We will not be narrow in our thinking but practical as the countries of Scandinavia, especially Finland (or closer to home – Singapore).

3. Merdeka from Corruption

If we value integrity and honesty, then we have no problems on declaring “war” on corruption. We have no problems for MACC to report to Parliament (and especially the Public Accounts Committee). We have no problems on bringing alleged corrupt people to a special Court on Corruption to fast-track all the cases. We have no problems with educating the public on the ills of corruption. We have no problems on awarding “whistleblowers” with a reward mechanism. We have no problems on a legal framework for political funding.

4.  Merdeka from Poverty

If we believe  that every child, parent has the right to a decent life, then we are concerned about our Gini coefficient.

We will look for ways to reduce inequalities between racial groups, within racial groups and between regions. Lawas and Limbang are as important as Kuala Lumpur or JB.

5. Merdeka from “ Narrow-mindedness”

If we believe in freedom of expression, then we will allow the creativity of our people, without constraints of officialdom. We will be tolerant of each other and not “overly” sensitive as we want ideas to flourish.

There are many ways other “narrow-mindedness” in a psyche but pray we will mature from those.

You may have many more “merdeka” points in your wishlist but the above five are key, in my perspective, to our progress in the years ahead. Despite the above, we must be grateful to God for His blessings:

• We enjoy relative peace and stability;

• People are compassionate and loving even though many leaders try to divide them;

• We have resources to tide-over difficult periods;

• Many do work hard to provide for their children’s education;

• Relative religious harmony even though it could be better;

• Opportunities in business to develop the nation from manufacturing to services; and

• Many still hold to integrity and honesty in their work.

So, let us develop this nation within the principles of Rukun Negara.

Will China’s Property Sales Plunge by One-Third?

Property sales in China could fall by one-third in 2022, spelling trouble for the country’s giant housing sector. People may lose faith in the market and pressure will increase on struggling developers to complete presold apartments.

Amid reports that the government is preparing a bailout of the sector that could cost 300bn yuan ($44bn), experts at S&P have concluded that the fall in sales will be twice as bad as they had originally forecast for this year. S&P Global Ratings now expects national property sales will fall 28%-33% in 2022.

Source: https://www.dailysabah.com

Disgruntled buyers of apartments at housing projects in more than 100 cities had banded together to withhold payments on unfinished homes. 

The strike has ratcheted up the pressure on developers, who are already facing acute liquidity problems. Many depend on customers paying upfront for homes off the plan to keep cash flowing through the business. The proceeds can be used to pay debts.

Some high-profile developers have already fallen into default, causing waves of panic in the global financial system – most notably Evergrande, the country’s second-biggest property firm. 

Separate research by the agency puts the estimated value of the loans in question at almost 1tn yuan ($144bn) and could threaten financial stability if there was a sharp drop in prices, as now seems likely amid plunging sales. A slowing economy and rising unemployment are adding to the downward pressure on sales and prices.

Local land sales are also affected as a result of the property downturn and the country’s zero Covid policy. In the first half of the year, local land sales revenue declined sharply by 31% year-on-year. The decline may be narrowed in the second half of the year, but may still stay weak at -10%, due to subdued developers’ financing.

And while S&P economists estimate about a quarter of China's GDP is affected directly and indirectly by real estate, only part of that 25% is at a risk level.

China's real estate sector has been intertwined with local governments and land use policy, making the industry's problems difficult to resolve quickly. A new bidding process for land fully took effect, he said. The new bidding process tightened the supply of land and real estate, pushing up housing prices more than speculation did

Authorities in Beijing are beginning to respond to the crisis with reports that the government has set up a multi-billion yuan fund to help bail out the stricken sector. The fund would initially be set at 80bn yuan. The state-owned China Construction Bank would contribute 50bn yuan, but the money would come from PBOC’s relending facility. If it was successful, other banks would follow suit with a target to raise up to 200-300bn yuan.

The above troubles in China will have ramification on economies like Malaysia. We need China to overcome its issues for our exports to remain robust. Meanwhile, we need to look at our property overhang and the continued development of condominiums and high-end properties. We cannot afford to have a “bailout” of our property sector.

References:

China property sales could plunge by one-third, analyst say, as crisis deepens, Martin Farrer with agencies, The Guardian, 26 July 2022-08-08

China’s property sales are set to plunge 30% - worse than 2008, S&P says, Evelyn Cheng, CNBC, 27 July 2022

Intergroup Conflicts: Who is Responsible?

PAS and UMNO are the “biggest perpetrators” of intergroup conflicts, responsible for “instigating fear and anger” among Malay-Muslims, a recent study found.

According to the Initiative to Promote Tolerance and Prevent Violence (INITIATE.MY), PAS was to blame for at least seven intergroup conflicts from 2004 to 2021, including protests, violent clashes and acts of vigilantism.

Tied in second place were three groups – the Sungai Petani Skuad Bakar vigilante group, the “Red Shirts” movement and the Malaysian Volunteers Corps Department (RELA), each recording six instances.

In third place was UMNO with five instances, followed by Red Shirts leader and UMNO man Datuk Seri Jamal Md Yunos, and the Hindu Rights Action Force (HINDRAF), both recording four instances.

Other groups in the list include the Islam Defenders’ Associations (PEMBELA), Pertubuhan Pribumi Perkasa (PERKASA), Gabungan Mahasiswa Islam Se-Malaysia (GAMIS), Muslim Consumers Association of Malaysia (PPIM), Federation of Peninsular Malay Students (GPMS) and Dong Zong.

The data was revealed in INITIATE.MY’s latest policy brief, Mainstream Mediation as an Alternative Form of Conflict Resolution in Malaysia, published Thursday, July 28, 2022 (and reported by Focus Malaysia on August 1, 2022)

The groups usually “weaponised far-right ideologies” like predominant ethno-religious nationalism, pro-Malay-Muslim hegemony and anti-racial equality, and “instigated fear and anger” among Malay-Muslims.

These groups did this by claiming that the special position of the Malays and Islam would be “threatened” by the ratification of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD) and the Rome Statute.

Other notable instances include protests to defend controversial Indian televangelist Dr Zakir Naik and oppose the introduction of Jawi khat calligraphy in vernacular schools, as well as the Sri Maha Mariamman Seafield temple riots.

The report suggests that while top-down and punitive resolutions are needed in conflicts, especially when it involves violence, approaches like mediation can be effective. This is especially so during the earlier stages of a conflict as community-centric and non-punitive resolutions can better resolve disagreements.

The National Unity and Integration Department is “hamstrung’ in resolving issues or in identifying them. There is no real will to back the work of this Department. Why? The politics of “divide and rule” is directly opposite of the Department’s objectives. Unless we have a Government that seeks the betterment of all and not pander to the narrow political discourse of a few, more issues will surface – from Bon Odori to Oktoberfest.

Selamat Hari Merdeka!

Reference:

Study: PAS, UMNO “biggest perpetrators” of intergroup conflicts, Vinodh Pillai, Focus Malaysia, 1 August 2022

U.S. Sanctions: Why It Is An Optical Illusion?

The United States frequently reacts to adverse foreign events by imposing economic sanctions. Sanctions are attractive because they are easy to impose, tend to have little budgetary impact, and, do not subject U.S. military personnel to death or injury. But the historical record shows that sanctions are usually ineffective. And the accumulated weight of economic sanctions, which are readily imposed but rarely repealed, could eventually jeopardize the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, making it harder for the federal government to finance the country’s growing debt.

https://www.acamstoday.org

The first high-profile use of economic sanctions in the modern world occurred in 1935. The League of Nations, the interwar predecessor of the United Nations, voted to sanction Italy for invading Ethiopia. But Italy was undeterred, and its fascist regime was only ejected from Ethiopia by military action during World War II. Trade restrictions on Cuba date back to the Eisenhower years and have been in force continuously since 1962. But 60 years later, Cuba’s communist regime remains in power.

Similarly, various U.S. and international sanctions have been imposed on North Korea since 1950. And while economic sanctions may have helped bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons program, the Islamic regime has remained in place since the U.S. first imposed restrictions in 1979.

There is little reason to believe that economic sanctions being imposed on Russia by the United States and Europe will break Vladimir Putin’s regime or bring an early end to its military invasion of Ukraine. Higher energy prices arising partly from the economic sanctions are filling Russian government coffers, helping it continue its aggression. 

The Russian Ruble declined sharply after sanctions were imposed but rebounded. The currency is now stronger than it was in February, and the Russian Central Bank has been able to lower its key interest rate back to pre-war levels.

Long-term, if banks, companies, and countries find the U.S. sanctions regime too onerous, they might seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar-based international payments system. As a 2021 Congressional Research Service report explained, Russia and China were actively searching for alternatives to U.S. dollar-based trade before Russia invaded Ukraine. Similarly, during the Trump era, France and Germany tried to create a special purpose vehicle that would allow them to trade with Iran while avoiding secondary sanctions.

Fortunately for the United States, alternatives to the dollar have significant drawbacks. Because the European Union often employs sanctions as well, the Euro provides limited benefits in terms of flexibility. China might welcome the opportunity to replace the dollar with its Renminbi. Still, banks, businesses, and other countries would worry about China’s capital controls and the government’s penchant for manipulating and changing rules. China is also currently experiencing severe economic headwinds.

The United States benefits from the dollar being the world’s reserve currency. Foreign central banks and other international players demand U.S. dollar-denominated assets, such as Treasury securities, even if they provide negative real returns. But if more countries see a need to circumvent the dollar-based system and can find reasonable alternatives (such as barter), Americans could face even higher interest rates. And, with over $30 trillion in national debt to service, the federal budget would become more strained as interest rates rise.

Sanctions are an attractive way to state U.S. principles and imply something is being done. Unfortunately, sanctions are rarely effective and have substantial costs. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control has a list of over 10,000 sanctioned individuals and organizations, so rather than continuing to layer more and more sanctions onto those put in place over the last 70 years, the U.S. should prune restrictions that have outlived their usefulness and fight the temptation to impose more.

In essence, it is better to find other means from dialogue to military blockade (instead of economic sanctions) to deal with an “unlawful” action by a “rogue” state. So long as the U.N. (with its veto) remains powerless, the resolution to several crises remains an illusion. And America’s sanctions only mollify its local vote base for now.

Reference:

Sanctions are ineffective and could jeopardize US fiscal health, Marc Joffe, The Hill, 21 June 2022