That’s IMF for you! Emerging markets growth for 2018 is 4.9%.
The problem is emerging markets growth is “pulled-up” by China and India.
Otherwise, it will be below 4.9%!
The grand issue for 2018 is the inward-looking policies from
the U.S. Withdrawing from TPP and imposing tariffs on steel, aluminium and solar
panels defeats increased world trade as others too can impose tariffs on the
U.S., especially in agriculture and electronics. Then we have geopolitical
tensions in Syria, Iran and the Korean peninsula. Further, climate has not been
kind – which with global warming will impact on output and productivity. So to
promote free and fair trade as IMF suggests will not be easy with an
unpredictable U.S. President. Then there is this dire prediction of U.S. stock
markets crashing by 50%.
All that sounds really gloomy! But being prepared for the
worst and hoping for the best is the sure way forward!
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