Future Cost of Climate Change

Economists have spent 25 years trying to agree on the above, but have not been successful. We can ask what price would be worth paying today to avoid emitting a tonne of carbon dioxide. This “mythical” figure is called the “social cost of carbon”.

Yale economist William Nordhaus suggests a modest figure of USD30 per metric tonne. The Obama administration set its median cost of carbon at about USD42 per metric tonne for 2020. The Trump administration puts it at USD3 per tonne with a roll back for the Clean Power Plan (a euphemism for coal).

Several other countries face damages above USD20 per tonne, including:

	USD per tonne
India	86
Saudi Arabia	47
China
Brazil	24
UAE

Global cost is USD417 per tonne. All this is based on a study published in the scientific journal “Nature Climate Change” and quoted by Stacy Morford from “Inside Climate News”

The U.S.’s share of global damage is about 12%, while India’s share is 4 times higher than its contribution. China’s emissions is 4 times higher than its share of estimated damages.

Disruptions will make it harder to import goods or export their own, turmoil and mass migration and socio-economic factors are not accounted for.

Focussing on emissions rather than damages will limit global warming to 1.5° to 2° or reaching zero net emissions by 2100. So it is how far can we shift to zero-emission for electricity generation. Sweden and U.K. have begun the work in implementing action-oriented policies. It is sensible to keep climate change within a narrow window to sustain human civilization and appreciate all of God’s creation.

References:

1. Climate change will cost U.S. more in economic damage than any other country but one, Stacy MOrford, Inside Climate News (24 Sept 2018)

2. We can’t know the future cost of climate change. Let’s focus on the cost of avoiding it instead, Jack Pezzey, The Conversation (13 Dec 2018)