Is Malaysia’s Population Stagnant?

The Department of Statistics tells us that the total population of Malaysia in 2022 inched up to 32.7 million from 32.6 million in 2021, for an annual population growth of only 0.2%. The decline in population growth rate was because of “the lower number of non-citizens from 2.6 million (2021) to 2.4 million (2022)”.

That masks the key factor behind this falling growth rate: the total fertility rate in Malaysia has plunged from 6.7 births per woman in her lifetime in 1957 to just 1.7 in 2021 – below the population replacement rate of 2.1.

Penang’s population actually slid from 1.7404 million in 2020 to 1.74 million in 2021 and was expected to shrink by 0.1% to 1.7386 million in 2022. That is not surprising given that the fertility rate for the state has been following over the years to now only 1.3 – a drop that is even more pronounced than the national rates. It is unlikely that the Penang population will soar to meet an earlier inflated population estimate of 2.45 million by 2030, including 300,000 expected to settle on three artificial islands off southern Penang Island.

More people live on mainland Penang, which has 947,400 people, than on Penang Island, which has 791,200 people, down from 794,313 in 2020. This 791,200 is well short of the draft Penang Island local plan’s projection of 1.033 million by 2030.

The more stringent MM2H eligibility criteria, such as having an offshore income of at least RM40,000 per month, a fixed deposit of RM1m, and liquid assets worth at least RM1.5m will deter retirees from coming to Malaysia.

The declining fertility rates and almost stagnant population have profound implications for housing, education, healthcare, mobility planning and elderly care as the population ages at both the national and state levels. 

Meanwhile, the last census in 2020 revealed that the average size of families in Malaysia has shrunk to 3.8 per household from 4.2 in 2010, even though the number of households rose from 6.4 million to 8.4 million. This rise in households is probably due to rural-urban migration. Some 75.1% of the people now live in urban areas compared to 70.9% in 2010.

Despite the higher number of households in the country, the population of Kuala Lumpur has also shrunk by 1%. Perhaps, like in Penang, people are also finding city housing expensive and are moving to the suburbs?

With the country’s population barely rising, we need to re-examine our economic model, to reduce inequalities and make development more sustainable. So the government should build more affordable homes, encourage house owners to rent out unoccupied property, improve public transport, raise the standard of public hospitals and national schools, and increase food self-sufficiency rather than focus on infrastructure.

Reference:

Is Malaysia’s Population Stagnant? Anil Netto, ALIRAN, 6 Jan 2023