Is Singapore’s Presidency a Consolation Prize for Tharman Shanmugaratnam?

The former deputy prime minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, whether measured by opinion polls or real-world election results, is the most popular politician in Singapore. He is the smartest and most imaginative reformer in Singapore’s Cabinet in recent decades. Electoral setbacks in the 2011 parliamentary and presidential elections, Tharman has been credited with pushing the government to modify its longstanding aversion to welfare and introduce modest support for the elderly and the poor. These measures have not been sufficient to resolve the government’s electoral problems, but they have at least stopped the haemorrhage.

Tharman also has another political advantage — he is faithful to the most powerful patron in the country, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. His patron–client relationship with Lee began in the 1980s when he worked for the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Tharman has been investigated by authorities over security concerns on three occasions, but these tight spots have not been allowed to adversely affect his political career.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

Opinion polls routinely name Tharman as the best candidate for prime minister. This is particularly so since Lee announced in 2017 that he planned to step down in 2019, not withstanding the reality that more than five years later, Lee remains prime minister.

Given his popularity and mastery of economics and public policy, Tharman should have been an obvious candidate to succeed Lee. But in 2008 Lee declared that only a candidate from Singapore’s majority Chinese community was acceptable. This verdict was confirmed in 2019 by Lee’s then-designated successor, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat. In the same year, Tharman stepped down as Deputy Prime Minister to make way for Heng. This is the lot of a talented Indian in Singapore’s supposedly meritocratic society.

On 8 June 2023, Tharman announced that he was stepping down from Cabinet to run for President. This should not have been a surprise, given that he had no prospect of advancement in Cabinet.

The choice of Tharman for President arguably solves several problems for Lee. The presidency provides an august reward for Tharman’s loyalty and stunted executive mobility. Tharman’s popularity also guarantees Lee will not be embarrassed by the spectacle of an establishment candidate almost losing to a strong alternative candidate. This nearly happened in the presidential election of 2011.

But if the advantages to Lee are clear, so are the disadvantages. Lee loses the input of an innovative economic and public policy expert in Cabinet. This loss comes at a time when Singapore’s government is facing a potential electoral blowback over unpopular housing policy reforms. The government is also struggling with cost-of-living issues, the prospect of a deteriorating economic outlook and a growing list of scandals.

Could Lee have done better? Maybe, because the victory that Tharman had (over 70% voted for him) suggests he was popular with the majority group in Singapore. That speaks volumes on race relations and possibilities of others rising to the top in the Executive chain. For now, it is a good development for Singapore and others in the region.

Reference:

Singapore’s presidency a consolation prize for Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Michael Barr, East Asia Forum, 25 July 2023