Why Did Rishi Sunak Call for an Election?

After 14 years in power, the Conservative Party faces a likely wipeout unless there is an unprecedented reversal in its dismal opinion polling. The Conservatives are blamed by many for a Britain widely seen as being in decline.

Real wages have stagnated for well over a decade; health care waiting lists and house prices are soaring; sewage is being pumped into the rivers and sea; dysfunction blights everything from the country’s railways to its prisons; and Brexit — once the Conservatives’ cause célèbre — is now widely deemed such a failure that most politicians prefer not to discuss it at all.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

Because of election law, Sunak had to call the vote at some point this year. Even so, his decision to act immediately — while his party languishes a colossal 20 points behind the opposition Labour Party — has deeply angered many of his own lawmakers. Many observers are wondering: why now?

Rishi Sunak has deployed the only weapon left in his arsenal: the element of surprise. At the very least, he fired the starting pistol on his own terms, and showed that he has the backbone to go for it proactively. But even the prime minister’s traditional allies seemed to share a sense that Sunak may also have sounded the final bell on 14 years of Conservative rule.

The right-wing newspaper The Daily Telegraph went with: “Things Can Only Get Wetter,” a reference to a  1990s British dance classic. That was the song played by demonstrators at the gates of No. 10 Downing St., which threatened to drown out Sunak’s address. 

Electoral history is full of shocks, of course, but no party in the history of British politics has reversed anything close to the current polling chasm this close to a vote. The current landscape is bleak for the Conservatives. But recent slivers of good news may mean this actually is as good as it might get.

Inflation has fallen to 2.3% — down from a 40-year high of 11% in late 2022, the worst in the developed world. (Inflation in the United States was 3.4% in April 2024.)

The prime minister may also be hoping for a polling boost from the launch of his flagship immigration policy, a plan to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda. Amnesty International called it “a stain on this country’s moral reputation” and a “national disgrace.” But 42% of voters — and 58% of Conservative voters — think immigration here is too high, according to Redfield & Wilton Strategies, a London pollster and consultancy. Net migration to the United Kingdom has risen sharply, despite Conservative promises that Brexit would do the opposite.

Sunak’s supporters also claim that, while the prime minister might be unpopular, the public doesn’t seem to have warmed to his chief opponent, former prosecutor Keir Starmer. Despite his party polling well, the Labour leader’s personal net favorability rating is minus 17 (vs. Sunak’s minus 51), according to YouGov.

So, could Sunak win on 4th July?

It is easy for me to outline but perhaps the following could have been his strategy when he first came into power:

(i) reduce or eliminate waiting times at hospitals. Fund NHS fully and build/re-build hospitals;

(ii) get a grip on cost of living by having subsidies on electricity/utility tariffs;

(iii) process all illegals on French soil and stop all boats from landing;

(iv) build/privatise land for new housing; 

(v) build the high-speed rail line to Manchester;

(vi) eliminate issue of homelessness with social services funding; 

(vii) refuse to support foreign military ventures of the U.S., like in the Ukraine; and

(viii) find new taxes to fund above costs, e.g. use the Tobin tax and “excess” profit tax on oil companies, pharmaceuticals and banks.

Was that really too hard to do? Actually not, if you are from Oxford and Stanford!

Reference:

His party is deeply unpopular so why did British PM Rishi Sunak just call an election? Alexander Smith, NBC News, 23 May 2024