From Iran to I-ran!

 

On Feb 28, 2026, Tehran was rocked by an attack by the US-Israeli joint forces, targeting key military facilities and the Iranian leadership. The Iranians did not respond immediately. We have now entered into the third week. 

Markets have reacted. The most profound moves seen in the price of oil, which has jumped by more than 50%. The United States has used multiple reasons to justify its action, but these are seen as more of excuses than valid reasons. 

Source: https://ms.wikipedia.org

 

Among the many excuses used by the United States was that Iran was just two weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. This is in the world of fantasy. In June 2025 the United States said  Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was obliterated. 

Another reason for the United States to strike Iran was that the president had a “good feeling” that Iran was going to strike Israel, hence, a pre-emptive strike. US President Donald Trump himself said that the reason for the strike in Iran was to facilitate regime change. Guess what? Iran has just appointed another Supreme Leader by the same surname. 

Like Venezuela, the key objective is again economics, and the economics here is nothing but oil. Iran has the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves with just over 200 billion barrels of oil and is presently the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil at about 3.5 million to four million barrels per day. More importantly, Iran has some 12% of global oil reserves. 

Iran’s geographical position is also of significance as it controls the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20% of global oil is transported. It is the sole sea passage from the Gulf region to the rest of the world. 

Since Trump came to power just over 14 months ago, the United States has been involved in multiple conflicts. And he is the Chairman of the Board of Peace. The United States has been involved in at least eight attacks since Trump took office in January 2025. So much for peace!

The war in Iran costs US$1bil per day, and for a nation with US$38 trillion in debt, any war is a costly affair. The elevated oil prices will be damaging to the United States in the form of higher consumer prices, lower stock prices and potentially higher US Federal Reserve rates to contain inflation. 

The United States and Israel have three choices when it comes to ending this war:

 

(i)             The United States recognises the newly elected Supreme Leader and works with Iran to reach an amicable solution with respect to Iran’s nuclear programme (if any).

 

(ii)            The United States withdraws its military assets from combat positions.

 

(iii)          The United States sends its ground troops into combat while the Iranians continue to attack US assets in the region, drawing other Middle East countries into an endless war. This is the worst option for all and is damaging for capital markets and asset prices. 

Trump’s best option is to retreat gracefully, or in other words, from declaring war on Iran to running away from it. In short, from “Iran to I-ran”. 

Reference:

Does the world need another war?, Pankaj C. Kumar, The Star, 14 Mar 2026