Warfare or Welfare?

Global military spending surged to its highest level in three decades in 2019. That’s the research done by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (“SIPRI”).

Global military expenditure totalled USD1.91 trillion in 2019, up 3.6% from 2018. The U.S. is the largest spender at USD732 billion and that constitutes 38% of global expenditures. The top five spenders accounted for 62% of global military spending. The other four are China (USD261 billion), India (USD71.1 billion), Russia (USD65 billion) and Saudi Arabia (USD62 billion).

The Covid-19 pandemic is taking a dramatic toll on the U.S. economy. U.S. GDP was USD21.4 trillion in 2019. McKinsey analysis suggests a return to pre-crisis level will not occur until 2023. The economic losses could be as high as USD19 trillion over 10 years. With the USD2 trillion stimulus bill, U.S. debt which is already USD23.4 trillion, puts pressure on defence and government expenditure.

Defence spending, as estimated by RAND Corporation, was at USD676 billion in 2019. This may decline by USD350 billion to USD600 billion (over next 10 years) if current level of 3.2% of GDP is fixed.

Wars have substantial impact on allocation of economic resources and one way to look at

it is military spending. That as a share of GDP. This changes over time and across nations. Even in the absence of conflict many countries devote resources to the military. That’s usually 1% of GDP. Poverty and lack of development fuel hatred and escalate tensions. And who suffers most? Women and children of course!

Rather than continuing to focus on outdated narrow military security concepts, we need to rethink how best to meet real security needs. Not imagined threats. Better diplomacy and a working U.N. are better than warfare. Covid-19 pandemic must reset our minds to welfare than warfare.

Reference:

1.    Study: World military spending soars in 2019 but virus expected to halt all that rise, 27 April 2020, The Star

2.    Defence Budget Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic, 7 April 2020, The RAND Blog