COVID has been fatal - not only for humanity, but also for the world economy.
According to Alux.com, there are 15 countries that will take long time to
recover. It is more likely of an L-shaped recovery than a U or V shape.
1. Italy
Covid-19
has been in Italy since September 2019. Italy has been brought to its knees, with
close to 1.5-million cases and roughly 50,000 deaths. The latest reports
suggest that the second wave is slowing down, but hospitals are critically
short of trained staff to support those with the virus.
Debt,
unemployment, and fear are rife amongst Italians, but with the hope of running
vaccines from January, perhaps there is a glimmer of hope.
2. Sweden
The Swedes appeared to be the trendsetter for the herd immunity method of dealing with the pandemic. From the onset, there were no lockdowns in place, life carried on as normal for the then 8th happiest country in the world. Fast-forward 8 months, and you have over 200,000 people infected with the Corona and around 6,500 dead. The Swedes will likely take quicker to recover, but the egg on their face will be etched in history forever.
3. USA
The USA is number 1 in the world with the highest number of cases, after 12 million cases and 290,000 plus deaths and counting. The situation has left the country divided. Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech got emergency authorisation for the vaccine to go ahead.
Many
deaths could have been avoided had there not been delayed actions, incorrect
policies in place and a general negative can’t touch me, approach.
Economically,
as many as 1 in 4 people are struggling to pay their bills and have had to dip
into emergency funding, retirements, and savings. One in six have borrowed
money or received money from a food bank. Four out of ten people have lost
their job or know someone who has lost their job due to Covid.
Source: https://www.adb.org
4. UK
The end of lockdown was declared on 2nd December. Currently the Brits are sitting at number 7 with the most infections, at over 1.5 million and 55,000 plus deaths. The Prime Minster, Boris Johnson was quoted as saying, “For the first time since this wretched virus began, we can see a route out of the pandemic, we know in our hearts that next year we will succeed.”
According to The Guardian, the full cost of Covid for the UK is still being counted. However what is confirmed is that the second wave is pushing the UK to the brink of a double-dip recession. Then there is Brexit, which puts the Brits in a double whammy!
5. South Africa
South
Africans started their lock-down journey in March with strict restrictions. No
visiting, ban of alcohol and cigarette sales, everything shut– even the beaches
were deemed unsafe.
They’ve moved from level 5 to level 1, and just when they thought freedom was around the corner, they started to get fatigued and the numbers rose drastically.
In a country where most people live below the bread line, this has crippled them. Lines of hundreds of people snake outside post-offices. Desperate people collect roughly $23 to last them a month! Millions more are now unemployed, and many businesses have closed their doors permanently. The situation is dire. The unemployment rate has hit a record high of 30.8%!
6. Turkey
Debt is Turkey’s middle-name. Things were already tough in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been on a path of growth, at any cost. He jailed his enemies (over 50,000 people), seized their assets and protected those borrowing so he could finance monuments in his honour. The lira has plummeted, investors have taken their money out of the country and unemployment rate is over 10%. The virus is exacerbating Turkey’s economic woes. They have had over 460,000 people being infected and deaths of around 12,500.
7. Indonesia
Australia
is loaning USD1.5 billion to Indonesia to help get them through this unexpected
economic crisis. Foreign investors have dumped government bonds and the rupiah has
crashed. In a country that relies so heavily on tourism, the pandemic is a huge
economic blow. The country has seen over half a million people infected with
the virus.
It didn’t help that senior members of Jokowi’s cabinet suggested herbal mangosteen juice, eucalyptus necklaces and good old-fashioned prayer for those infected with Covid. Indonesia has officially entered its first recession in 20-years.
8. Spain
King Felipe VI is in self-isolation, the medical council wants the Covid health chief fired and almost 44,000 deaths recorded. With Christmas and New Years around the corner, government is desperate to limit the spread.
Many industries are struggling and not able to operate. Tourism accounts for 12% of Spain’s economy, and tourism is dead. Small and medium sized businesses cannot stay afloat, and low-skilled, young and temporary workers are worse hit.
9. India
India was
already gripped by an economic downturn before Covid. Promised jobs by Prime
Minister, Narendra Modi, have not materialized. Add bloody conflicts between farmers
and Government, a public health
catastrophe, mass unemployment, gender-based violence and now Covid – it’s a
recipe for disaster.
Senior Congress leader Ahmed Patel lost his battle with Covid along with over 135,000 others. They’re almost peaking at 10-million confirmed cases in total and the IMF predicts that the recovery itself will take three years before India is back at pre-Covid-19 levels.
10. France
France has been badly affected by the virus. There was a slight ease in their lockdown measures, with 3 steps put in place – beginning December, then around the holiday time and finally January 2021.
Even Black Friday has been moved, so there is no unnecessary gathering. French President, Emmanuel Macron, confirmed that the 2nd wave was, “circulating at a speed that even the most pessimistic forecasts had not anticipated.” France has had close to 2.2-million infections and over 50,000 deaths. Hospitals are near capacity; many have closed because they are literally full, and the economy has dropped by 12%.
The Prime Minister, Jean Castex, is wanting France back on its feet within 18-months and has unveiled a €100bn coronavirus recovery plan.
11. Argentina
For
Argentina, it was another nail in the coffin. BC – Before Covid – the peso had
lost 2/3rds of its value. Government debt was 90% of annual economic output. The
economy contracted by 2% from previous years. Argentina owes the International
Monetary Fund $57 billion!
With the pandemic, all the problems that were already there are now even worse. But where does the government get more money from?
Close to 1.4 million cases and 38,000 plus deaths, Argentina is now pushing for humanitarian funding, maybe crowd funding is better!
12. Serbia
Serbians are currently experiencing the “things surely can’t get worse, but then they did” momentum. What do we mean?
The Serbian Orthodox Church is mourning the loss of 82-year-old Amfilohije Radovic, the church’s most senior cleric in Montenegro. He died from Covid. Many mourners kissed the dead body and Covid has spread quickly.
Serbia has had over 130,000 infections but their death rate is surprisingly low at just 1274. There is a drop-in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing, transportation, and tourism. Over half a million people have lost their jobs but reports claim that Serbia is able to contain “the expansion of poverty.”
13. Portugal
They’re
fast approaching the 300,000 confirmed cases mark and are reeling after more
then 4,000 deaths… how has Portugal faired with the pandemic?
They too
rely on the hotel, restaurant and tour industries to keep their economy afloat.
Tourism amounts to 15% of GDP!
Ratings agency Moody’s put Portugal, Greece and Italy as the 3 countries that will have the “Greatest economic destruction” because these countries rely so heavily on small business.
It’s not all doom and gloom though, because the bicycle industry is booming due to Covid. People are opting to bike where they can to avoid trains, cabs and public transport, meaning a boom for the bicycle trade in Portugal, who are Europe’s largest manufacturer of bicycles.
14. Russia
News agencies are reporting, “packed morgues and excess deaths” which is very different to the pristine, well-managed and under control message that’s being sent out. Russia has had over 2-million cases, yet not even 40,000 deaths. Many suggest that the true figures are hidden, and the death toll is far higher than reported. It wouldn’t be good for Russia to report an exponential increase in deaths, especially with their Sputnik vaccine showing 95% efficacy.
To date, Russia has not had a lockdown, with authorities encouraging people to keep a safe social distance and to wash their hands.
15. Brazil
It’s been a struggle from the start for Brazil. But many deaths could have been avoided if the virus had been taken seriously from day one.
Now, there are over 6-million confirmed cases and deaths are in the region of 170,000. The federal government blatantly ignored the facts, and when it hit, they were ill-prepared. Primary healthcare is severely lacking, funding to the most vulnerable came far too late and there were severe delays in getting essentials to certain regions.
Government
now faces a $112 billion refinancing cliff early 2021. Despite numbers
increasing by almost 30,000 a day, government is blaming technical glitches or
just a temporary increase. With ongoing mayoral elections, it’s believed that
restrictions are not becoming tighter to keep the popularity vote high.
What about Malaysia?
We have had low infection rates in the
beginning. Now it is in the region of 1-2k daily. Why? More testing is done on
foreign workers sites in the country. The usual phrase is “under control”. The
economy has “tanked” but expectations are 2021 will show a buoyant
recovery. The Pfizer drug was purchased
for RM3 billion with no idea of its coolant (-70°C) properties. But that’s
another contract!
People follow rules generally but the
Government needs to do more for SMEs, tourism, hotels and the airlines.
Otherwise, unemployment will be above 6%.
Reference:
15
countries that are going bankrupt because of COVID, Briony Sparg, 26 November 2020 (www.alux.com)
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