Heat Waves Driven by Climate Change Have Cost The World $16 Trillion!

Extreme heat caused by human-driven climate change has likely cut more than $16 trillion from the global economy between 1992 and 2013 and potentially as much as $65 trillion, according to the peer reviewed research. The researchers found that the costs of extreme heat—which has an impact on human health, productivity and agricultural output—have not been borne evenly around the world, with the poorest countries suffering the most.

Economic losses from extreme heat averaged at 1.5% of GDP per capita for the world’s wealthiest nations, typically the biggest contributors to climate change. Meanwhile, the world’s poorest nations suffered far greater losses of 6.7% of GDP per capita, the research showed, and most of them have contributed the least to climate change and are less resilient to its effects.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org

The quality of economic and environmental data around the world is highly variable and that covering the world’s poorest and hottest regions is often the worst. The researchers note that this makes it hard to generate precise estimates on the economic costs associated with climate change, particularly for the regions least represented by existing data, and there are wide margins in their estimates ($16 trillion is the average of these analyses). Despite data limitations, the researchers said they were able to comfortably account for any uncertainty in their analysis. Additionally, they stressed it would be irresponsible to use data gaps as an excuse to justify inaction in parts of the world most vulnerable to climate change.

A June 2022 study commissioned by the Vulnerable 20 group, made up of over 50 economies vulnerable to global warming, found that those economies had lost $525 billion, or 22% of their 2019 gross domestic product, in the past two decades due to human-induced changes in temperature and rainfall patterns.

Of the total losses, 44% were concentrated in Bangladesh (population 166.3 million), the Philippines (111 million) and Vietnam (98.1 million), due to their large populations and levels of economic development, according to the study.

Developed countries have long argued that paying for loss and damage is already being done in the course of current climate finance, which is used mainly for two purposes: "mitigation" measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as investments in solar panels and onshore wind projects, and "adaptation" measures to minimize future damage, such as early warning systems and land conservation.

For example, of $83.3 billion raised from developed countries in 2020 for climate action in vulnerable countries, 58% went toward mitigation, with 34% going to adaptation according to the  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The figure, meanwhile, was still short of commitments made at the U.N. climate conference in 2009 which pledged to mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries.

Meanwhile, climate-vulnerable countries insist financing "mitigation" and "adaptation," however, does not address the damage that has already been done. Small island countries scattered over the Caribbean, Pacific, and other seas say they are getting especially desperate. 

In “rare cases”, some countries could actually benefit from the extreme heat caused by global warming. Some regions of Europe and North America could theoretically benefit from having warmer spells. These regions are among the wealthiest in the world and some of the biggest carbon contributors to climate change.

Historically, demonstrating the effects, damages and even existence of human-driven climate has been tough because of the very long time scales and gradual changes involved. Though deniers remain (including former President Trump), the world’s leading scientists overwhelmingly and conclusively point to human activity as the cause of unprecedented warming. The climactic changes are driving up the frequency of phenomena like storms, heat waves, cold snaps, flooding and wildfires and increasing their severity. Without immediate and drastic change to reduce carbon emissions, this change is expected to get much worse as the world continues to heat.

References:

Heat waves driven by climate change have cost the world $16 trillion since the 90s, Robert, Hart, Forbes, 28 October 2022

Counting the cost of climate change, Sayumi Take, Nikkei, 2 November 2022