Malaysia’s State Elections Scenarios

Based on the results of GE15, the expectation among political observers in Malaysia is that PN is likely to retain Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu while PH, together with UMNO, will retain Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. (This view is also held by YB Ong Kian Ming and the following are excerpts from his article published on 18 July 2023 in Fulcrum).

The rationale behind this expectation is from the electoral outcomes for GE15 in these six states (Table 1 below).

Source: Election Commission

Similarly, PH was dominant in non-Malay majority Penang, winning 59.4% of votes and 10 out of 13 parliamentary seats.

PH and BN’s combined vote share of 69.3% and 76.3% in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan respectively with PH winning 17/22 parliament seats in Selangor and PH + BN winning 8/8 parliament seats in Negeri Sembilan should also result in both states being won by PH+ BN in the upcoming state elections.

Table 2: Three Scenarios of Vote “Pooling” or “Transferability” between PH and BN

Table 2 above has three scenarios (as suggested by Ong Kian Ming) to project the state election results. Scenario 1 represents a “low” outcome for PH and BN with a low transfer rate of 30% from BN to PH and a relatively low transfer rate of 80% from PH to BN. Scenario 2 represents a “neutral” outcome with a transfer rate of 50% from BN to PH and a 90% transfer rate from PH to BN. Scenario 3 represents a “high” outcome for PH and BN with a 70% transfer rate from BN to PH and a 100% transfer rate from PH to BN. The vote transfer from PH to BN is used in all the state seats won by BN or where BN came second place to PN. The vote transfer from BN to PH is used in all the state seats won by PH or where PH came second place to PN.

A reasonable assumption is that PH voters are much more likely to “transfer” their vote from PH to BN in seats where PH makes way for the BN candidate to face a PN candidate.

How will the projected results in each of the states change under these three Scenarios? The results are summarized in Table 3 below.

Table 3: Projection of state election results under Scenario 1, Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 (using GE15 results as the baseline)

Numbers in parentheses (X) indicate the seats which are projected to be won by the respective coalitions with less than 55% of the popular vote, which is the threshold used to define marginal seats in a contest featuring two parties.

Unless there are big swings in favour of either PH-BN or PN among Malay voters (perhaps more likely) or non-Malay voters (much less likely), the anticipated outcome of three states remaining in the PN column (Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu) and three in the PH-BN column (Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan) will be the most likely. The upside for PH-BN is higher because of the potential of higher vote transferability from PH to BN in Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan and from BN to PH in the same states (but with a lower probability).

The six state polls will decide, among others, whether the voters believe in the falsehoods and fake news of PN leaders or whether the voters in the six states will vote for the future of Malaysia.

References:

Malaysia’s 2023 state elections: Projections and scenarios, Ong Kian Ming, Fulcrum, 

18 July 2023

Three possible scenarios of outcome of the six state polls in August, Tan Sri Lim Kit Siang, Focus Malaysia, 24 June 2023