Tuesday, 20 August 2019

No-deal Brexit: What Are the Implications?



The UK government has been ramping up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, since the beginning of summer 2018. Theresa May had promised to set aside of £4.2 billion for Brexit. An extra £2.1 billion, pledged by the Prime Minister Boris Johnson after taking office, will be made available to get the UK “fully ready to leave” the EU on 31 October.

What is the impact and has the Government been doing enough to prepare for Brexit?

Data flows

Mehreen Khan, Jim Pickard and Janina Conboye view that vast volumes of personal data from EU and UK citizens flow across the English Channel every day. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the data flows could be disrupted and may become a barrier to trade.

Under the Regulations, the UK government has done what it can to preserve the free flow of personal data from the UK to the EEA. However, the UK cannot provide for free flow of personal data into the UK. So, data imports are most at risk in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

A system of contractual clauses offered by Brussels, allowing non-EU companies to carry out data transfers in compliance with European law, could offer a fallback. The UK's ICO has also published guidance for businesses and SMEs on preparing for a no deal Brexit. In the longer term, the UK may sign an agreement with the EU to preserve the data free flow, but Brussels feels it could take “years” for it to be concluded.

Financial Services

Although the UK leads the EU’s financial services sector, there is still uncertainty how the sector will work after Brexit.

Brussels has taken some contingency steps, including the temporary transitional power, which allow firms to get their houses comply with rules lasting until December 2020.

In order to reduce the risk and impact of EU businesses being suddenly cut off from UK-based clearing houses, Brussels has granted EU institutions temporary access to the clearing houses such as London’s LCH, ICE Clear Europe and LME Clear, which are critical parts of the financial system. The access will however expire on March 30, 2020.

Irish Border

Under the contingency plan published by the UK on 13 March, the government would not bring in new checks or controls, or require customs declarations for any goods moving from Ireland to Northern Ireland, in the event of a no deal.

However, it remains unclear what will happen to goods travelling from Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland.

Transport

For airlines, the commission has passed two legal acts allowing airlines to fly point-to-point between the UK and European cities, until March 2020. Flight operators will not be able to fly on to other EU destinations, or take new passengers to a non-UK destination.

For lorries crossing the customs, extra checks might be needed and could lead to miles of tailbacks. A Road Haulage Association (RHA) spokesman said lorry drivers could face two day waits without food or toilets. Operation Brock, a contraflow system is designed to reduce traffic issue in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Part of the £2.1 billion will be used as extra funding for the operation.

What about Malaysia? What is the impact of Brexit on Malaysia?

Developing economies, particularly Southeast Asian nations, will get hit by Brexit. Malaysia, fortunately, has grown less dependent on the UK. Our share of exports to the UK in 1995 was 4.4 per cent and has now fallen to about 0.2 per cent today. Thus, the impact on exports would not be significant.

However, according to Datuk Dr. John Antony Xavier, the dampened of the EU growth rate of about one per cent this year and the next, would lead to a decline in world growth to about three per cent this year. If Brexit does dampen world growth, then Malaysian exports might feel the brunt of a hard Brexit.

Also, a falling pound means exporters will be hard pressed to raise their prices to compensate for the pound’s depreciation, which could make our exports less competitive in the UK market. Malaysian students, on the other hand, will benefit with a cheaper pound as it makes tuition fees and property investment in the UK more attractive.  


Reference
1.     Rachel Schraer & Tom Edgington, No-deal Brexit: how prepared are the EU and UK? www.ft.com
2.     How to prepare for no-deal Brexit: what you actually need to do before the UK leaves the EU on 31 October, i news, 8 Aug 2019
3.     Debbie Heywood, Cross-border data flows after a no deal/no adequacy Brexit https://globaldatahub.taylorwessing.com
4.     Datuk Dr. John Antony Xavier, Bracing for a no-deal Brexit www.nst.com.my

No comments:

Post a Comment