Monday, 1 July 2019

What are the Real Reasons for the U.S.-Iran Conflict?

Before the revolution in 1979, Iran was ruled by the US-friendly Mohammed Reza Shah, “propped up” by the West. The Shah originally took over from his father, who was pushed into exile in 1941.
In 1953, he was ousted by supporters of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeg, but the US and UK orchestrated a coup against the government and reinstated the Shah. This was because the previous regime nationalized oil interests including that of BP.
After Mosaddeq, the Shah went on to launch the White Revolution, which upended the wealth and influence of landowners and clerics, disrupted rural economies and heavily westernised Iran.
Opposition to his rule bubbled up in the Seventies and protests began in 1978.The Shah responded harshly and many were killed in demonstrations, which only spurred people on as protests escalated and many workers went on strike.
In 1979, the Shah and his family fled Iran and Ayatollah Khomeini, previously in exile, declared Iran an Islamic Republic.
Conservative Islamic social values returned and the militias and clerics suppressed all Western cultural influence. Meanwhile, the Shah went to the US and underwent treatment for cancer. Anti-Western sentiment in Iran grew stronger and in November 1979 protestors seized 66 hostages in the US embassy and demanded the extradition of the Shah. In 1980, President Jimmy Carter attempted to rescue the hostages, but the mission failed and eight US commandos were killed.
Although the Shah died in Egypt, the hostages were still not released and the captors now demanded other concessions. The hostages remained in captivity for 444 days until the US agreed to release frozen Iranian assets and promised not to interfere in Iran.
However, in 1986 Ronald Reagan admitted to Congress sending “small amounts of defensive weapons” to Iran in what has since been dubbed the Iran-Contra affair. While it was claimed this was on a small scale, scandal hit when it was discovered that millions of dollars were being diverted from Iranian arms sales to Nicaraguan rebels.
The President and Vice President claimed they had no knowledge of these fund diversions, though. In 1987, the US intervened in the Iran-Iraq war, protecting certain shipping, sinking several Iranian ships and also accidentally downed an airliner before the UN brokered peace in 1988.
In 1991, the US intervened in the Middle East again after Iraq invaded Kuwait during the Gulf War, striking in Baghdad and other targets and declining Iran’s offer to mediate.
Iran and Russia signed a nuclear contract in 1995 – and in 1996 President Clinton imposed sanctions in the fight against “terrorism”.
In 2002, secret nuclear facilities in Iran were discovered and in 2004 it agreed to temporarily halt uranium production. However in 2006, Iran resumed uranium enrichment at Natanz after negotiations with the US and EU stalled and the US proposed a top-secret cyberwar programme against Iran, while the UN imposed sanctions.

The second Gulf War – started by the 2003 invasion of Iraq and deposition of Saddam Hussein – left Iran as the major threat in the Middle East.
During the Obama administration, the US pushed for Iran to allow international inspection of its nuclear sites, while the UN ramped up sanctions. Eventually, talks culminated in the Iran nuclear deal, which many hailed as victory.
However, President Trump claimed Iran had no intention of sticking to the terms of the agreement and the US currently perceives Tehran as the most urgent nuclear threat in the world. And so the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Agreement in May 2018.
The real issues remain:
(i)         U.S./Western hegemony in the Middle-east. They cannot see Iranian/Persian power in the region;
(ii)        Oil and Iranian reserves are a threat to U.S. control over energy. Iranian oil (3rd largest producer) will upset the existing “control” of major OPEC nations;
(iii)       Iran’s single mindedness for nuclear power; and
(iv)       Iran's advancement of the Euro instead of U.S. dollar for oil transactions.

The U.S. is upset with over all of the above but more particularly on (ii) and (iv). This simmering 40-year problem is a U.S./U.K. creation which can only be solved by clear and calm minds and not a Twitter-loving President. Meanwhile, implications for the world will include:
-potential spike in oil prices;
-threat of a major (nuclear) war;
-disruption of oil supplies; and
-recession/collapse of the world economy
Dire as it seems, we pray for a peaceful resolution to a conflict created by years of mistrust and misunderstanding.

Reference:
Iran Bombshell: the real reason tensions between Tehran and the US could spark world war 3, Abbie LLewelyn, May 23, 2019, Express www.express.co.uk

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