Friday, 12 July 2019

CFA Institute Investment Foundations Program: Chapter 8 – Quantitative Concepts (Part II)


In a previous article, we introduced the CFA Institute Investment Foundation Program (Read more here).  It is a free program designed for anyone who wants to enter or advance within the investment management industry, including IT, operations, accounting, administration, and marketing.  Candidates who successfully pass the online exam earn the CFA Institute Investment Foundations Certificate.

There are total of 20 Chapters in 7 modules, covering all the essential topics in finance, economics, ethics and regulations.  This series of articles will highlight the core knowledge of each chapter.
Chapter 8 provides an overview of quantitative concepts. The learning outcome of chapter 8 is as follows:

·        Define the concept of interest;
·        Compare simple and compound interest;
·        Define present value, future value, and discount rate;
·        Describe how time and discount rate affect present and future values;
·        Explain the relevance of net present value in valuing financial investments;
·        Describe applications of time value of money;
·        Explain uses of mean, median, and mode, which are measures of frequency or central tendency;
·        Explain uses of range, percentile, standard deviation, and variance, which are measures of dispersion;
·        Describe and interpret the characteristics of a normal distribution;
·        Describe and interpret correlation.

Part II of this series will be focusing on descriptive statistics.  Below are the summaries of descriptive statistics.

·        The role of descriptive statistics is to summarise the information given in large quantities of data for the purpose of making comparisons, predicting future values, and better understanding the data.

·        The purpose of measures of frequency or central tendency is to describe a group of individual data scores with a single measurement. This measure is intended to be representative of the individual scores. Measures of central tendency include arithmetic mean, geometric mean, median, and mode. Different measures are appropriate for different types of data.

·        The arithmetic mean is the most commonly used measure. It represents the sum of all the observations divided by the number of observations. It is an easy measure to understand but may not be a good representative measure when there are outliers.
  
·        The geometric mean return is the average compounded return for each period—that is, the average return for each period assuming that returns are compounding. It is frequently the preferred measure of central tendency for returns in the investment industry.

·        When observations are ranked in order of size, the median is the middle value. It is not sensitive to outliers and may be a more representative measure than the mean when data are skewed.

·        The mode is the most frequently occurring value in a data set. A data set may have no identifiable unique mode. It may not be a meaningful representative measure of central tendency.

·        Measures of dispersion are important for describing the spread of the data, or its variation around a central value. Two common measures of dispersion are range and standard deviation.

·        Range is the difference between the highest and lowest values in a data set. It is easy to measure, but it is sensitive to outliers.

·        Standard deviation measures the variability of a data set around the mean of the data set. It is in the same unit of measurement as the mean.

·        A distribution is simply the values that a variable can take, showing its observed or theoretical frequency of occurrence.

·        For a perfectly symmetrical distribution, the mean, median, and mode will be identical.

·        A common symmetrical distribution is the normal distribution, a bell-shaped curve that is represented by its mean and standard deviation. In a normal distribution, 68% of all the observations lie within one standard deviation of the mean and about 95% of the observations are within two standard deviations.

·        The strength of a relationship between two variables can be measured by using correlation.

·        Correlation is measured by the correlation coefficient on a scale from –1 to +1. When two variables move exactly in tandem with each other, the variables are said to be perfectly positively correlated and the correlation coefficient is +1. When two variables move exactly in opposite directions, they are perfectly negatively correlated and the correlation coefficient is –1. Variables with no relationship to each other will have a correlation coefficient close to 0.

·        It is important to realise that correlation does not imply causation.









Sample Question

The preferred measure of central tendency for investment returns is the:
 
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