Just like the rest of the world, Southeast Asia is preoccupied
with the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery process. The threat to health from
COVID-19 (76.0%) is currently the region’s most pressing concern, followed by unemployment
and economic recession (63.0%) and the socio-economic gaps and income disparity
(40.7%). Terrorism is ranked last (5.2%), after deteriorating human rights
conditions (12.6%). This is based on a Survey Report 2021 of the ASEAN Studies
Centre at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.
Southeast Asians’ top concern about ASEAN is that it is slow and
ineffective and thus cannot cope with the fluid political and economic
developments (71.5%). In the same vein, 52.4% worry that ASEAN is unable to
overcome the current pandemic challenges. Geo-politics is also not far from
everyone’s mind as 69.1% fear that ASEAN is becoming an arena of competition
among major powers and its members may become their proxies. Fears that ASEAN
may become irrelevant in the new world order is ranked last (22.1%).
The majority of Southeast Asians (60.7%) approve of their
governments’ response to COVID-19. A large majority (84.8%) of these approving
respondents feel that their governments have acted effectively in implementing
public health measures to mitigate the outbreaks. In terms of what governments
can do better to address the pandemic, 49.0% feel that financial relief and
subsidies are needed.
In terms of COVID-19 leadership, respondents vote almost equally
for Singapore (32.7%) and Vietnam (31.1%) for providing best leadership to
ASEAN. In terms of provision of COVID-19-related assistance, 44.2% pick China,
followed by Japan (18.2%) and the EU (10.3%) as providing most help to this
region.
If forced to align oneself in the on-going US-China rivalry, the
majority of respondents choose the US (61.5%). China as a choice dropped from
46.4% in 2020 to 38.5% in 2021, even despite intensive COVID-19 diplomacy seen
in the region. When asked how ASEAN should best respond to Beijing and
Washington’s barbs, the majority (53.8%) prefer to have ASEAN enhance its own
resilience and unity to fend off their pressures.
China remains the undisputed influential economic power in the
region according to 76.3% of respondents. Majority of those (72.3%) who view
China in this way point to worries about its growing economic influence. China
continues to be seen as the most influential political and strategic power
(49.1%), which also engenders considerable anxiety over Beijing’s strategic
clout in the region (88.6%).
In contrast, even with out-of-control COVID-19 outbreak, record
number of deaths, pandemic-induced recession, racial tensions and assaults on
democracy in the US, the region is still welcoming of Washington’s strategic
influence (63.1%), an increase from 52.7% last year. Likewise, the share of
respondents having confidence in the US as a strategic partner and provider of
regional security increased from 34.9% to 55.4% this year. This positive view
of the US may well be attributed to the anticipation that the Biden
Administration will elevate American engagement with the region (68.6%).
Expectations of different players in alleviating the stresses on
multilateral free trade and the championing of international law continue to be
divided. Southeast Asian respondents (32.4%) view the ability of the European
Union (EU) to provide leadership in maintaining a rules-based order and
upholding international law positively. Respondents are equally split between
the US (22.5%), the EU (22.2%) and ASEAN (20.6%) in the ability to champion
international trade.
In this global leadership vacuum, Southeast Asians exhibit a steadfast partiality for openness and integration to respond to rising protectionism and nationalism around the world. 50.7% prefer that ASEAN “deepen cooperation with like-minded multilateralist partners beyond ASEAN”, followed by strengthening of ASEAN institutions that support the rule of law (26.8%) and hastening regional integration within ASEAN (20.2%).
ASEAN continues to express concerns over the South China Sea (SCS) situation. 62.4% are concerned about China’s militarisation and assertive actions, followed by Chinese encroachments in the exclusive economic zones and continental shelves (59.1%). The third-ranked concern (45.2%) is a US-China military confrontation that may lead to a political crisis. A large majority (84.6%) want ASEAN to adopt a principled stand on the SCS that upholds international law, and 80.8% agree that a code of conduct in the SCS must be aligned with international law.
The majority of Southeast Asians (72.2%) suggest ASEAN should discuss the Mekong River issues in its agenda. 46.3% in this cohort are concerned about the Mekong’s environmental problems and their impact on regional food security while 32.9% regard the Mekong as a geo-political space where ASEAN should play a more active role.
The EU and Japan are the clear
front-runners for ASEAN’s most favoured and trusted strategic partners in the
hedging game against US-China rivalry. Japan (67.1%) remains the most trusted
power in the region. The EU comes in second place at 51.0% with many viewing
the EU as a reliable champion on issues such as the rule of law, global
governance, free trade, sustainability and climate change. In the meantime, the
US makes a surprising turn-around with a 18.0% jump in trust ratings while the
China trust deficit is trending upwards from 60.4% in 2020 to 63.0% in 2021.
The
above responses provide a basis and framework for ASEAN to strengthen strategic
partnerships to develop a coherent strategy in dealing with the pandemic,
especially in procurement and supply of vaccines; the Myanmar governance issue;
trade relations with China and/or the U.S.; and, the geopolitical tensions in
the South China Sea and the region.
Reference:
The State of Southeast Asia: 2021 Survey Report, ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute
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