ASEAN: Key Perspectives and Issues

Just like the rest of the world, Southeast Asia is preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery process. The threat to health from COVID-19 (76.0%) is currently the region’s most pressing concern, followed by unemployment and economic recession (63.0%) and the socio-economic gaps and income disparity (40.7%). Terrorism is ranked last (5.2%), after deteriorating human rights conditions (12.6%). This is based on a Survey Report 2021 of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.

Southeast Asians’ top concern about ASEAN is that it is slow and ineffective and thus cannot cope with the fluid political and economic developments (71.5%). In the same vein, 52.4% worry that ASEAN is unable to overcome the current pandemic challenges. Geo-politics is also not far from everyone’s mind as 69.1% fear that ASEAN is becoming an arena of competition among major powers and its members may become their proxies. Fears that ASEAN may become irrelevant in the new world order is ranked last (22.1%).

The majority of Southeast Asians (60.7%) approve of their governments’ response to COVID-19. A large majority (84.8%) of these approving respondents feel that their governments have acted effectively in implementing public health measures to mitigate the outbreaks. In terms of what governments can do better to address the pandemic, 49.0% feel that financial relief and subsidies are needed.

In terms of COVID-19 leadership, respondents vote almost equally for Singapore (32.7%) and Vietnam (31.1%) for providing best leadership to ASEAN. In terms of provision of COVID-19-related assistance, 44.2% pick China, followed by Japan (18.2%) and the EU (10.3%) as providing most help to this region.

If forced to align oneself in the on-going US-China rivalry, the majority of respondents choose the US (61.5%). China as a choice dropped from 46.4% in 2020 to 38.5% in 2021, even despite intensive COVID-19 diplomacy seen in the region. When asked how ASEAN should best respond to Beijing and Washington’s barbs, the majority (53.8%) prefer to have ASEAN enhance its own resilience and unity to fend off their pressures.

China remains the undisputed influential economic power in the region according to 76.3% of respondents. Majority of those (72.3%) who view China in this way point to worries about its growing economic influence. China continues to be seen as the most influential political and strategic power (49.1%), which also engenders considerable anxiety over Beijing’s strategic clout in the region (88.6%).

In contrast, even with out-of-control COVID-19 outbreak, record number of deaths, pandemic-induced recession, racial tensions and assaults on democracy in the US, the region is still welcoming of Washington’s strategic influence (63.1%), an increase from 52.7% last year. Likewise, the share of respondents having confidence in the US as a strategic partner and provider of regional security increased from 34.9% to 55.4% this year. This positive view of the US may well be attributed to the anticipation that the Biden Administration will elevate American engagement with the region (68.6%).

Expectations of different players in alleviating the stresses on multilateral free trade and the championing of international law continue to be divided. Southeast Asian respondents (32.4%) view the ability of the European Union (EU) to provide leadership in maintaining a rules-based order and upholding international law positively. Respondents are equally split between the US (22.5%), the EU (22.2%) and ASEAN (20.6%) in the ability to champion international trade.

In this global leadership vacuum, Southeast Asians exhibit a steadfast partiality for openness and integration to respond to rising protectionism and nationalism around the world. 50.7% prefer that ASEAN “deepen cooperation with like-minded multilateralist partners beyond ASEAN”, followed by strengthening of ASEAN institutions that support the rule of law (26.8%) and hastening regional integration within ASEAN (20.2%).

ASEAN continues to express concerns over the South China Sea (SCS) situation. 62.4% are concerned about China’s militarisation and assertive actions, followed by Chinese encroachments in the exclusive economic zones and continental shelves (59.1%). The third-ranked concern (45.2%) is a US-China military confrontation that may lead to a political crisis. A large majority (84.6%) want ASEAN to adopt a principled stand on the SCS that upholds international law, and 80.8% agree that a code of conduct in the SCS must be aligned with international law.

The majority of Southeast Asians (72.2%) suggest ASEAN should discuss the Mekong River issues in its agenda. 46.3% in this cohort are concerned about the Mekong’s environmental problems and their impact on regional food security while 32.9% regard the Mekong as a geo-political space where ASEAN should play a more active role.

The EU and Japan are the clear front-runners for ASEAN’s most favoured and trusted strategic partners in the hedging game against US-China rivalry. Japan (67.1%) remains the most trusted power in the region. The EU comes in second place at 51.0% with many viewing the EU as a reliable champion on issues such as the rule of law, global governance, free trade, sustainability and climate change. In the meantime, the US makes a surprising turn-around with a 18.0% jump in trust ratings while the China trust deficit is trending upwards from 60.4% in 2020 to 63.0% in 2021.

 

The above responses provide a basis and framework for ASEAN to strengthen strategic partnerships to develop a coherent strategy in dealing with the pandemic, especially in procurement and supply of vaccines; the Myanmar governance issue; trade relations with China and/or the U.S.; and, the geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and the region.

Reference:

The State of Southeast Asia: 2021 Survey Report, ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute